Friday, May 24, 2002

 

Pete Seeger interview on WAMC

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

Rare Pete Seeger interview on WAMC gives insights on conservation, politics and folk music During an early May Saturday afternoon we wereoff on a Spring errands trip - the library, plant store and supermarket - when thecar radio came live with a Pete Seeger song. WAMC, the Albany Public Radio,was doing a two-hour blockbuster interview with the 81-year old veteranfolksinger. We were spellbound, and sat in the library driveway until the 2PM stationbreak, too late to grab but a quick book before closing. Progressing to themarket, we noted that the interviewer, the usually uninhibited Dr.,Alan Chartok, Chairman of the Board of Northeast Public Radio Network and its man of all seasons,was uncommonly self-effacing, limiting himself to throwing one-word song title cues to Seeger, which evoked 10-minute polished reminiscences, interspersed with songs. Did you know that Guantanamera, a poem by Jose Marti, refers to the bar girls of Guantanamo, the American naval base of Guantanamo Bay, in Cuba.? Locals, asked where they have been all night, simply answer "Guantanamera." Or that while Where Have All the Flowers Gone started as a camp song, Seeger plucked it out from Michael Sholokhow's Stalinist book And Quiet Flows the Don,and is voluntarily paying royalties to Russia's folklore archivists? Or thathootnanny is not what the French couples do on the night before marriage? At theALDI market, we once more sat in the hot parking lot, mesmerized until theprogram was over at 3PM. Our day's schedule was shot, but it was worth it.Story has it that Pete Seeger lives on a hill top in Beacon, the only housevisible in the wooded slope above the Taconic Parkway a mile or two south oftheonly remaining gas station on the Governor's Road. Rightly or wrongly, Ineverfail to point it out to visiting friends, who are usually more concerned with my staying straight on this winding stretch that we call the Terrible Twenty (miles, that is). We have been Seeger people ever since he started the Hudson River Sloop Clearwater project, to clean the waters of the mighty Hudson, polluted with PCBs by General Electric's upriver plants over the decades.{PCBs don't mainly cause cancer, they make for deformed babies. Upstate HudsonValleyhas a lot of people who need home care.} GE admits its sinful past but declaresthat stirring the river's bottom sediments will cause an increase of PCBs inthewater. Seeger agrees that ordinary dredging will be harmful but a modernmethodof sucking up the mud will cleanse the river We're with Seeger, but the realtrick is where to put the polluted mud. The singer has been a man of causes all his life - union, civil rights,peace,anti-war movement, Socialism, environment, Henry Wallace's Progressive Party (1948). Blacklisted by the major media during the McCarthy years, he has achieved belated official recognition in the '90s, with a the nation's greatest musical award at Kennedy Center in 1994, the Harvard Arts Medal and a strangeRock & Roll Hall of Fame designation in 1996, followed by a Grammy a year later.Son of Juillard's ethnomusicist Charles Seeger, the 19-year old guitar andbanjopicker and second-year Harvard dropout joined the music folklorist Alan Lomax in collecting folk songs in the South. Seeger's singing career was started by aschoolteacher aunt, who offered him five dollars if he would perform before her class, and he's never looked back In 1941, with another musician, Oklahoma'sfavorite son Woodie Guthrie, he formed the Almanac Singers, and the idealistic kids traveled all over the country, singing their songs in rent parties,lumberjack camps and union halls.. WWII broke up the team.After service in the Army, in 1948 Seeger formed the Weavers, with Fred Hellerman, Lee Hays and Ronnie Gilbert. Their six-month gig at the VillageVanguard brought them to the attention of band leader Gordon Jenkins, a producer for Decca records. When the head of the firm refused to hear the group,Jenkins put them on within his own recording program, and the two sides, Tzena,Tzena, Tzena and Goodnight Irene (borrowed from Hudie Ledbetter, aka Leadbelly, who died in 1949, a few months before fame struck) were the top songs on the Hit Parade for many weeks. The Weavers, whose 19 LP records, produced from 1952 through 1997, are part of the canon of American folk music repertory, brought to our attention such favorites as So Long (It's Been Good to Know You),On Top of Old Smokey, Kisses Sweeter Than Wine, Kumbaya, Wimoweh, Woody Guthrie'sThis Land is Your Land, If I Had a Hammer (words by Lee Hays) and Marching to Pretoria. Their protest songs and left-wing politics brought Seeger to the attention of HUAC, the House Un-American Activities Committee, and theWeavers were blacklisted, unable to get jobs on the major TV and radio stations. But America wanted them, they gave a historic Carnegie Hall performance inCarnegie Hall in 1955, repeated in 1963 and 1980. Eventually the Smothers Brothers forcedCBS to let them have Seeger as a guest on their popular TV program (sans protest songs such as Garbage). Seeger sang Waist Deep in the Big Muddy, a concealed anti-Vietnam war song. It may have lost the Smothers their show, but the folksingers were on a comeback trail. Good music wins. Although politically at odds with the Socialism of the Weavers and Seeger, I grooved to their songs on Washington Square Sunday afternoon hootnannies. Seeger's prison sentence for dissing HUAC was reversed by Appeals Court Judge Irving R. Kaufman, the Rosenbergs' trial judge of 1951, on 1st Amendment grounds.Seeger left the Weavers in 1958, and was replaced by Frank Hamilton, Bernie Krause and Eric Darling, in sequence. He has continued to sing, and to write some two dozen books (The Incompleat Folksinger, 1972) and scads of songs.In concerts with Arlo Guthrie their repertory ranged from Alice's Restaurant to Amazing Grace. He has been campaigning for the rights of the folk musicians of 3rd World, to have publishers recognize the origins of such music, seemingly in public domain, with some royalties. While it is too late for the South African Xosa (pronounced khosa) day laborer and Wimoweh singer Landa to earn anycomforts, his family and the Zulu cultural and music preservation groups will benefit from the Tokens' and their songwriter George Weiss' earnings from their adaptation of his song. Seeger's record of children's music, Abiyoyu, likewise pays royalties to Africa. Turn, Turn, Turn, is from the Ecclesiastes, else our indomitable folklorist with a stern sense of justice would pay royalties on it too.Seeger at 81 continues to play and sing, mostly for children in schools, andtodefend the causes of justice and environment. People learning music use histext, Henscratches, and his guitar and banjo study tapes, and anyone joining in a rousing We Shall Overcome is singing with Pete Seeger (only some of the words are his, he would hasten to correct).WNYC cannot re-broadcast the interview for copyright reasons, but you can hear it on WAMC upstate, Memorial Day, 9-11 AM, and Alan is giving away CDs of the interview in his upcoming WAMC fund-raiser.

Monday, May 20, 2002

 
Jack Welch speaks freely at Baruch
If you have wondered what a Jack Welch looks like, I can tell you. He is a short intense man witha a receded hairline, beaky predator’s nose, nervous manner and challenging defensive attitude, quite open. There is nothing oracular or high-priest about him, he speaks straight and does not do sound bytes.
For the Martians among us, Jack E. Welch just retired from GE as CEO and Chairman, after a career of 3x yrs, during which he became notorious for firing 100,000 employees and setting up open competition for his replacement among three candidates, at the end of which two left - to become CEOs of 3M and Home Depot, not a bad. set of consolation prizes. In the process, he made GE a most profitable giant entity, the market’s darling. He popularized the Six Sigma quality control process developed at Motorola in the 1980s, a novel employee-involving analysis with katate terminology (champions, Black Belts) that streamlines processes and maximizes profits by minimizing manufacturing and distribution costs.
We saw "Neutron Jack" in a unique interview at the new Baruch College Vertical Campus, Lexington Ave and 24th Street, of which more later, when we wheedle a tour of the very security-conscious building. The interview was conducted by Sarah Bartlett, the new Bloomberg Professor of Business Journalism, a former ace reporter at NYT, Fortune and Asst Managing Editor of Business Week, until 1998, when she yielded to the syren call of Oxigen Media and, subsequently, Upside.com. Oh, well...
The sympathetic interviewer led Neutron Jack gently through discussions centering on Enron, not letting his frequent potshots at the media distract her..Predictably, Welch was positive, declaring Enron to be one of a handful of bad apples, while the majority of corporate America is straight. Stock market analysts have been gullible, and some appear to have been corrupted.. Analysts, the press and particularly auditors must get down, gain open access to the company, to smell it, feel it, touch it. Internal auditors are a valuable resource, in transfering their knowledge and crosseminating valuable information within divisions of a corporation, and he would never think of outsorcing this function (an oblique reference to Enron’s outsourcing the function to Arthur Andersen a decade ago, with the well-known results).
Tricky operations, whereby companies transfer this quarter’s sales to boost last quarter’s results came in for withering criticism. Consistent earnings with consistent growth is the method for business success and credibility, and FASB (the conservative book of accounting rules) is the only guide. Corporations must not fool with pension funding, which is a small item in GE’s $15 billion earnings horizon. Putting current economics in perspective, we always find a solution for the human condition, these are not the first of times, and the economic recovery is clearly materializing, barring any major acts of terrorism. He proclaimed his grief for New York City, comparable to that felt when JFK was assassinated, and declared Rudy Giuliani to be the role model, even before 9/11.The first instance if showing his fangs.
On the question about Jack Welch as a cult figure, he saw corporate executives as fair game for People magazine as wellas the business press, and the protection of their private lives being up to the individuals (his divorce as the result of an affair with a Harward Business Review editor has been recently in the newspapers). Corporate boards came in for criticism for not playing by the rules. He likened the Enron situation to the board suspending all rules of ethicsd, t .


Sunday, May 19, 2002

 

Jack Welch speaks freely at Baruch

If you have wondered what a Jack Welch looks like, I can tell you. He is a short intense man witha a receded hairline, beaky predator's nose, nervous manner and challenging defensive attitude, quite open. There is nothing oracular or high-priest about him, he speaks straight and does not do sound bytes.
For the Martians among us, Jack E. Welch just retired from GE as CEO and Chairman, after a career of 3x yrs, during which he became notorious for firing 100,000 employees and setting up open competition for his replacement among three candidates, at the end of which two left - to become CEOs of 3M and Home Depot, not a bad. set of consolation prizes. In the process, he made GE a most profitable giant entity, the market's darling. He popularized the Six Sigma quality control process developed at Motorola in the 1980s, a novel employee-involving analysis with katate terminology (champions, Black Belts) that streamlines processes and maximizes profits by minimizing manufacturing and distribution costs.
We saw "Neutron Jack" in a unique interview at the new Baruch College Vertical Campus, Lexington Ave and 24th Street, of which more later, when we wheedle a tour of the very security-conscious building. The interview was conducted by Sarah Bartlett, the new Bloomberg Professor of Business Journalism, a former ace reporter at NYT, Fortune and Asst Managing Editor of Business Week, until 1998, when she yielded to the syren call of Oxigen Media and, subsequently, Upside.com. Oh, well...
The sympathetic interviewer led Neutron Jack gently through discussions centering on Enron, not letting his frequent potshots at the media distract her..Predictably, Welch was positive, declaring Enron to be one of a handful of bad apples, while the majority of corporate America is straight. Stock market analysts have been gullible, and some appear to have been corrupted.. Analysts, the press and particularly auditors must get down, gain open access to the company, to smell it, feel it, touch it. Internal auditors are a valuable resource, in transfering their knowledge and crosseminating valuable information within divisions of a corporation, and he would never think of outsorcing this function (an oblique reference to Enron's outsourcing the function to Arthur Andersen a decade ago, with the well-known results).
Tricky operations, whereby companies transfer this quarter's sales to boost last quarter's results came in for withering criticism. Consistent earnings with consistent growth is the method for business success and credibility, and FASB (the conservative book of accounting rules) is the only guide. Corporations must not fool with pension funding, which is a small item in GE's $15 billion earnings horizon. Putting current economics in perspective, we always find a solution for the human condition, these are not the first of times, and the economic recovery is clearly materializing, barring any major acts of terrorism. He proclaimed his grief for New York City, comparable to that felt when JFK was assassinated, and declared Rudy Giuliani to be the role model, even before 9/11.The first instance if showing his fangs.
On the question about Jack Welch as a cult figure, he saw corporate executives as fair game for People magazine as wellas the business press, and the protection of their private lives being up to the individuals (his divorce as the result of an affair with a Harward Business Review editor has been recently in the newspapers). Corporate boards came in for criticism for not playing by the rules. He likened the Enron situation to the board suspending all rules of ethicsd,

Thursday, May 16, 2002

 

Det. Owen Hughes moving from the 13th Precinct to the Cabrini Med Center

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

To the T&V neighborhood activists, the name of Owen Hughes has been synonymous with the Police Department, or at least the 13th Precinct. Whenever a question came up or a problem rose its ugly head, "call Owen" was the immediate response. Detective Hughes held the job of the 13th Precinct’s Community Affairs Officer for 17 years, and this article is in the past tense because he is retiring on May 26th. Unofficially, he is already gone, using his accumulated vacation, to take on the office of Director of Public Security/Community Affairs at the Cabrini Medical Center.
My paths crossed with Owen’s quite frequently, first in 1986, with the founding of the Committee to Save the Police Academy. Although the then Commissioner Ben Ward hated the idea - he wanted a new state-of-the-art training operation in the Bronx, and we had at least one fierce session in front of the City Council - Owen, in his function as the Community Officer felt obligated to cooperate with the community effort, and did not block it in any way. A CSPA story - an elderly Stuytown resident complained to Owen about the proposed move, and when asked for the reason, responded: "Can you imagine how long it will take the police to respond to my calls from the Bronx?" It is the 20th Street cocoon of the PA, 13th Precinct and Midtown South command that makes people see the block as one unit.
Owen has always been responsive to questions, and accessible. If you did not reach him at 477-7427, you could find him at the next public event - a May Day demonstration, or an Edward Said speech on Union Square, a political rally or a question-and-answer session at the Community Board. More than once he was the peace-maker, a role that he handled quite naturally. In 1994, when Commissioner Bill Bratton came to explain quality-of-life crimes in a public meeting at the Brotherhood Synagogue and some squatters started demonstrating in the back of the room, he kept them and the objecting community members apart without any fuss or feathers.
Owen was the one who brought together the PD hierarchy and the community. You’d find him cruising with the new precinct commanders, in car or on foot, introducing the newcomers to the locals . With the current CO, Deputy Inspector Patrick McCarthy he came on bicycle, a good way to get around, except that you do 25 miles to qualify, not so easy. He brought the COs to local events and fund-raisers, they would drop in at Concerned Citizens Speak, the churches and synagogues.
The 13th must be some form of police incubator, with command changing on a regular basis. When I brought this remembrance to Owen’s attention, he obligingly supplied a list of names from his memory bank, chronologically. He started with Deputy Inspector James McCabe, in 1983. The then Sgt. Michael Fox was like a father to the recruit, and was responsible for his promotion to detective in 1990 (often seen at local functions with Owen, Fox retired on April 17, just before his 63rd birthday, as a two-star Chief and Commanding Officer of Patrol, Manhattan South). Capt Elson Gelfand retired as a Chief, Capt. Clarence Pinsent retired as a Deputy Inspector, Capt John Healy, an Inspector, Capt George Brown, currently a three-star Chief, Capts Richard Seta and Michael Darby retired as Inspectors, Capt Steven Anger is now Inspector in charge of Midtown North Precinct, Capt John Healy retired as Dep Inspector. The current CO and bicycle advocate, Dep. Inspector Patrick McCarthy, started as as a Captain in the 13th. Why the recital of names? Because at some point in time these COs were important in keeping us well, and should be remembered, as we remember our heroes, Officers Moira Smith and Robert Fazio and ESU Officer Brian McDonnell, who lost their young lives at WTC.
Owen did work, once, with the famed late Dep. Commissioner Jack Maple, the inventor of the Compustat system that forced each CO to keep maps of crime frequencies by block and building, and allocate resources accordingly, meeting the Commissioner weekly, to evaluate the results. Maple was at that time involved in the takeover of the then drug-infested Hotel Kenmore from its unsavory landlord, Tron.
There was also fun. When the PD embarked on a campaign of weight loss for officers, Owen became the poster boy, with a fantastic 40 lb weight drop. His before and after pictures and story appeared on the front page of the NYT Met section. It was amazing, since he never looked like he had that kind of poundage to lose. Alas, some of it has come back. Owen has also been the subject of some rhymed lines in these columns. One remembers "if your sin is drugs or booze, you better watch out for Owen Hughes" (anon.).
Anyway, we are lucky, he is not going away from the neighborhood. His knowledge of the precinct territory and community is prodigious, and it will not be lost to the community in his new task. If any local poets wan to try rhyming some more quality verse with Owen’s name, in his honor, this column will provide the space.
Roman Holiday. A friend, just back from Rome, Italy, reports the theft of a wallet, with suggestions for summer visitors. After a dinner on Piazza Narvona (ah, memories), he boarded a bus to return to the hotel at Repubblica, with a crowd, when two bystanders pushed him, left side and back. He instinctively went for his wallet, in the back pocket of his jeans, and feeling that it was gone, grabbed the left-side accoster, who loudly proclaimed his innocence. Not only that, he voluntarily took off all his clothes to be examined, totally naked (not a pretty sight, with his skivvies at his ankles).
My buddy got to the hotel and, with the help of the front desk, reported the loss to Visa and American Express, cancelling the cards. Problem - his wife’s card numbers were the same as his, useful in reporting the loss but bad when you are left funds-less. Next day they went to American Express, at the bottom of the Spanish Steps (egad, these memories hurt), to get some walk-around cash, and it took forever. The cards they cancelled were AE Access cards issued by Shoprite, and involved calling AE Hawaii, before they received $300. The lesson: leave all extraneous cards behind; have at least one non-duplicated account with your dearest; photocopy your cards and have the list in another pocket, or suitcase. Remember to keep your stuff in a card-case, in one front pocket, with the money (no clip) in the other. Snatchable ladies’ purses should contain only cosmetics - that’s advice from a Sicilian Holiday.
Wally Dobelis had a problem in remembering while reporting about Marvin Mondlin’s book of the antiquarians of Fourth Avenue. The Schulte’s store is now a JanovicPlaza paint store, and Sid Solomon’s emporium was the Pageant, not the Paragon Book Store.

 

Richard Eldridge moving from Friends on 15th to Locust Valley

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
XWhen Richard Eldridge replaced the dynamic and ebullient Joyce McCray as the Principal of Friends Seminary on East 16th Street in 1989, we the PTA go-getters were struck by his modest and low-key approach to the New York school scene, with its demanding and vocal parents and kids. Little did we know that under that modest exterior we had a Clark Kent, capable of some pretty miraculous transformations. He is an activist and problem-solver, as I know from years of good and pleasant personal experiences.
Rich claims that he has essentially continued with the reforms that Joyce initiated 25 years ago, when she took on a placid school with diminishing enrollments and permissive attitudes, turned it around and imbued it with new vitality. If so, he really took it to a new level. Consider the growth of enrollments, to 640, with the average classroom size of 16 (and a great staff ratio, of 7 to 1). There has been growth in programs and curriculum, with the academic quality upgrades due to improvement of quality and stability in both students and faculty.
Friends has established a relationship with NYU, whereby students take advanced and reverse AP courses (college work for high school credit) in math, psychology, science, Italian and other languages and subjects. The computer network and computer study program is a model for the private school environment. The Friends’ Study Abroad year takes high school students to Italy (St. Stephen’s School in Rome ), France and some more exotic countries -Spain, Mexico and China come to mind - at affordable rates. Ties with other Quaker schools have been built. The Friends After Three program and the Summer Friends program have grown and the latter has become available also for neighborhood kids. A dimension of Quaker spirit and Quaker life has been added to the school.
This is particularly true in the are a of diversity. Friends has a diversity ratio that has grown from 17 percent in the days when we were parents to 25 and will be 27 percent next year. The increased emphasis on both ethnic and economic diversity is handled by active staff and parent committees, and a full time Director of Multicultural Affairs. This has been Richard Eldridge’s area of fiercest commitment, and he cast a broad net to expand it, still not quite to the satisfaction of this practicing Quaker.
Richard Leete Eldridge was born in New Haven, CT. His father was a high school English teacher who advanced to the presidency of Bennett College, a junior college near Poughkeepsie, no longer in operation. After public and private schooling in Maine Rich attended Oberlin College (B.A. in English) and Cornell University (M. Ed. in English), culminating with a Ph.D. in American Literature from University of Maryland in 1977. Before the doctorate he taught English and literature in Lexington, MA, and Tokyo and Seisen, Japan. Subsequently he became Assistant Dean at the Community College of Baltimore, then Principal of Buckingham Friends School in Lahaska, PA for eight years, before coming to New York.. Rich feels that 13 years, equivalent to a child’s education cycle, is enough for a career in one school, and is ready for new challenges. He will be the interim Head at Friends Academy in Locust Valley, N. Y., 40 minutes driving distance away, while continuing to reside with his wife Rosaria Golden and two step-children in Stuyvesant Town. A curious item for the Guinness Book of Records: his son David is about to be appointed the interim Principal of another Friends school (Rich is the parent of a son and daughter and the grandfather of three)..
Dr. Eldridge’s community involvements go way back and include memberships in the Maryland State Humanities Council (vice-chair), Bucks Alliance for Nuclear Disarmament, Bucks County Arts Council, trusteeships and directorships in Youth Services Opportunities Council (vice-chair), the Black Rock Forest Consortium, Friends Journal, and offices in Friends Meetings, currently in the Doylestown organization. He has been involved in Stuyvesant Park activities, with Dr. Thomas Pike, occasionally sharing his space at St. George’s Church. Rich’s professional affiliations have included, at various times, Friends Council on Education, Friends Academy, Country Day Headmasters Association and Early Steps.
Rich is the recipient of the Klingenstein Fellowship Columbia University Teachers College, 1997, and has articles and poems are published in both small and large journals. He wrote the libretto for "Sweet River," an opera presented in Baltimore in `1976, and seven original musicals performed during his seven years at Buckingham Friends, with two of them repeated at Friends Seminary. Rich wrote a study of one of the Harlem Renaissance’s major figures: "Jean Toomer’s Cane: The Search For American Roots," as his 1977 dissertation. Subsequently he developed a friendship with the widow of the Quaker poet-philosopher (1894-1967), while Toomer’s daughter attended school at Buckingham. He co authored another biography: "The Lives of Jean Toomer" published in 1987, and also one of the widow, Marjorie Content, an important avant-garde woman photographer, for a book of her works edited by Jill Quasha (1994).
Rich’s successor at Friends Seminary is Robert "Bo" Lauder, until now the principal of Upper School of Sidwell Friends in Washington, D.C., where a certain President’s daughter attended classes. We wish him luck and less exciting days in NYC, and the best to our veteran, Dr. Eldridge (in this Friends’ first-name environment one should remember and acknowledge a person’s academic accomplishments once in a while) in his new endeavor. Come back to Stuyvesant Park, sometimes, we will stack the books for the May Friends Fair, as we have done together for the past 13 years.
The Friends Seminary Community will bid farewell to Richard Eldridge on May 31 at 6 PM in the Meetinghouse, with a program celebrating his 13 years of service. You can give a gift to the Lifetime Learners Fund established in his name by sending a check to Friends Seminary 222 East 16th Street, NY 10003.
Wally Dobelis thanks co-conspirators Vicki Ingrassia, Director of External Affairs, and Harriet Burnett, Director of Admissions

Thursday, May 02, 2002

 

Robert Kaplan paints a realistic contrarian world

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

"Warrior Politics: Why Leadership Demands a Pagan Ethos," by Robert D. Kaplan (Random House, 2002, 197 pp, $ 22.95) is a skinny book that sends one searching for meanings and sources. The Atlantic Monthly’s star political observer (his "Balkan Ghosts" of 1993 has been quoted here) in his newest analysis advocates Realpolitik, and hints at targeted, selective suppression of the ideals of democracy and personal morality in the 3rd World as desirable, in the greater interests of mankind.. It is a startling thought. If this review is somewhat in the manner of Cliff Notes, it is to give you the roots of the thoughts expressed. Read the book itself for a better reach. Notes and bibliography are provided.

He starts by reminding us that the populist social reformers of the 20th century, motivated by ideas of social renewal, industrialization and technology, were responsible for 118 million deaths - 21 million for Hitler, 35 for Mao and 65 for Stalin. Incidentally, our Founding Fathers were smart, they provided for the impeachment of a President before they elected one.

The reasons for the murderous reformers’ success are present today, ever more so. This is an age of social unrest, driven by the elements of overpopulation, resource scarcity, income disparity and information technology that makes the poor aware of the differences. Badly underpaid young workers with cell phones and Internet access do not make for more stability in North Africa and the Mideast. Liberalization and democracy in such places as Egypt, Syria and Algeria just unleash extremist unrest. Do not expect ethnic reconciliation in such areas - see India and .Afghanistan. The post-Colonial Era is in the early stages of collapse. .Next decade may wither Pakistan and Nigeria. Cities overshadow nations, and city-states are run by oligarchs if not criminals. While elites babble about globalization, new class struggles arise, tied to religious and urban tensions.

Globalization exists in that states do not war with each other. Today’s successful warring is asymmetric, the post-industrial era empowers anyone with a Nokia and a bag of explosives. Only foolish dictators like Saddam Hussein arm for a straight-on war. Technology increases barbarism, by breaking the emotional link between decision and performance. Modernization made feasible such actions as Auschwitz, air warfare and massive corporate downsizing. Electronic communications facilitate cruelty. The vaunted meritocracy encourages competition among millions of employees. Cultures that fail to compete technologically resort to violence, including rape and pilferage (Serbs and Croatians, Kashmiris, Chechens, Russian soldiers). Some recover, some remain unstable.

For clues of morality Kaplan looks at Plutarch, Seneca, Cicero and particularly Livy’s History of the 2nd Punic War, a 17-year conflict, when the peace-breaker Hannibal kept conquering territories until Rome woke up to the dangers. This was not unlike the Germans and Japanese before WWII. Afterwards the Romans chose a more activist dictatorial form of government (Kaplan’s modern parallels include Fujimori, Chavez and Musharraf)..

Roman attitudes parallel those of the Chinese of strategist Sun-Tzu. The latter’s "Art of War" ascribed the highest excellence to avoidance of fighting, and saw battle as a failure. His advice -:planning strategically, as a hungry man, ignoring public opinion, not shunning deceit in conducting intense politics - also included using good spies as a way of avoiding bloodshed. Here Kaplan lays the groundwork for morality based on results, not good intentions, a "tough love" that eventually advances the objectives of Judaeo-Christian mortality. That view is supported by Machiavelli, the realist, in an Italian city-state environment, comparable to today’s Sao Paolo, Karachi, Beirut, Bangalore.

Thucydides, the failed Athenian general and excellent historian, saw fear, self-interest and honor as the drives, causing action based on instinct that overwhelms law, with resulting anarchy. Hubris - Melian atrocity - sets seeds of disaster, as the Spartans learned. Uncontrollable allies are a liability.

Machiavelli saw heavy-handed treatment of opposition as leading up to meaningful peace effort, e.g. Rabin suppressed the 1st Intifada, then engaged in the Stockholm agreement. Clinton vs. China was sanctimonious, and vs. Milosewich in Kosovo was late (by 6 years), and the UN, in its Timor action, was inadequate. Power to hurt is a bargaining chip, exploring it is diplomacy.

Virtue is of questionable value. Pressing for human rights would have weakened Jordan’s King Hussein when he threw out the PLO. Our world supports or condones Mubarak’s Egypt, Musharraf’s Pakistan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Turkey, Azerbaijan, even China. Weakening such transgressors would cause anarchy, war potential and more human suffering. You get the drift.

Our Founding Fathers followed Machiavelli. Hamilton distrusted men, Madison saw the republic as filtering the whims of the public through agents and representatives. Machiavelli saw that competing self-interests drive politics and lead to compromises, while stiff moral arguments lead to wars.

Intervention is matter of judgment. Chamberlain was a classic determinism case, not interfering, vs. Churchill, the unstable and overbearing drinker and hater. He and Isaiah Berlin abhorred determinism, as fatalism.. Using statistical studies - Raymond Aron’s "probabilistic determinism" - is another matter. What this discussion leads to is how to decide when to interfere, say, in Rwanda, Congo, Sierra Leone. "Virtue is good, outstanding virtue is dangerous." Media will trigger virtue by seeking to show blood and atrocities,

In explaining why Sierra Leone, Haiti and Congo are hurt by democracy and need dictatorship, Kaplan brings in Hobbes’s Leviathan, primitive peoples’ choice of a powerful protector. As to sources of the atrocities, the Malthusian theories of overpopulation and scarce resources (the modern "limits of growth") come into play...A "balance of power argument" comes on with the collapse of the Berlin Wall. Moral arguments fail in face of the necessity of arming the Croatians. Kant’s "universal law" loses out.

Eventually we come to the warrior politics. The crude Greeks’ attack on the civilized Trojans, on a whim of the gods, is the basis, with comparisons to Islamists, Russian/Albanian mafiosi, Latin American drug kingpins and West Bank suicide bombers. In terms of US, Kaplan sees the insertion of armed brigades in 96 hours in response as the attacks as virtuous. Here we come to the "virtual war," bloodless (i.e. not US blood), conducted by air attack The enemies are not soldiers but "warriors," from among the poor unemployed young, angered by the economic disparity which is highlighted by communications Such are created in Islamist schools in Pakistani slums, or come from ex-convict skinheads, backwoods "patriots," cashiered ex-military, and drug and crime mafia. Media drive emotions. Suffering with the poor and accepting injury will invite attack. Ancient codes of honor will prevail, feudal relationships of protectors will arise more than ever.

As an idealistic solution, Kaplan presents a Sumerian (3rd Millenium BC) or Chinese Han Dynasty (2nd Mill BC) scheme of independent and interdependent fiefdoms that coexist for fear of worse if they pull out. Is EU or UN qualified? Maybe.If you are looking for direct answers, Kaplan maintains that he is demonstrating how to think, not what to think. Neat but not believable. Read for yourself.

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