Looking Ahead

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis


The markets have stopped the plunge, with Chairman Ben Bernake’s reduction of 75 basis points in the Federal benchmark interest rate. The big banks have been bailed out by Sovereign Wealth Fund investors. Taxpayers will be given a $150B rebate in the spring, to stimulate purchasing. Does this mean the economy will be saved from a recession? Can the East Midtowners feel less stressed about their Wall Street jobs?

Not necessarily, but maybe a bit – economists do worry that the Fed, fighting recession, is fueling inflation, and that the rebate will be used by prudent people to repay debt, rather than stimulate spending. The day-to-day market price stabilization is thin – the highs are not the highest, the lows not the lowest, the ranks of the stocks that come up are shallow. A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of markets prices down. This we have not had, but we are close. Retail numbers are low, but online sales are holding. The holiday retail sales were below expectations, but online sales are up 19%, not quite the 25% of 2006, but not far below the 20% that has been the average since 2002.

Now what about the banks being saved, to the tune of tens of billions of dollars, by the sovereign funds? In late December Merrill Lynch sold $5B new shares to Termasek Holdings, a fund owned by the Finance Department of the Singapore government, another 1.2 to Davis Selected Advisors, a $100B fund manager of Tucson AZ, and 1.3 B worth of its ML Capital to GE.
Citigroup turned over $7.5B of shares to Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, with another $6.8B going to the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation and more to the Kuwait investment Authority in January. The Singapores were already taking $9.7B of the UBS stock, while $5B of Morgan Stanley went to China Investment Corporation. Starting with Citic Securities in China taking $1B of Bear Stearns in fall, some $50B of sovereign fund capital has been invested in weakened US financial institutions. Banks worldwide have written down the value of mortgage backed investments by over $100B, with some fear among analysts that the figure might double in time.

What are these sovereign wealth funds? Well, over the years the oil producers and major exporter countries were content to let their surplus funds rest in US Treasury bonds, but with the weakening of US currency their interests have swung over to investments in banks, investment funds, private companies and real estate. Dr. Edwin M. Truman, a former Assistant Secretary of Treasury under Clinton, currently a Senior Fellow of the Peterson Institute of International Economics, has identified 20 major Sovereign Wealth Funds, ranking from UAE (Abu Dhabi) and thrifty Norway in the $300+B range, to Canada, Iran and New Zealand in the $10B area. Testifying before the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs late last year, he noted that the foreign reserves abroad are in the over $5 Trillion (that’s 5,000 Billion) category – compare that to the US GDP of $12T. The 20 SWFs identified above alone hold $2T.

The SWFs are controlled by politicians as well as economists, and operate in political as well as in global trade interests ( the difference being that economists, for instance, will not recklessly sell off US Treasuries for fear of overall global consequences). These funds are growing, and not all are friendly to US interests. Russia, for instance, has foreign currency reserves of $475B, acquired in windfall profits in oil and gas trading, and we should expect that it will use its growing influence to maintain high oil prices throughout the world. The Mideast oil producers, although speaking of globalism, cannot be expected to surrender their economic might to stabilize the US economy. Their directors now joining the boards of the mightiest US financial institutions are bound to pursue high oil price policies, not in the interests of the world’s largest consumer economy.

There is an effort on part of the bankers to attract US and non-government controlled foreign funds to the continuing bailouts, with the aid of New Jersey’s public pension fund and T. Rowe Price and Capital Research mutual funds, a hedge fund in New York and private investors. Prince Al Walid bin Talal of Saudi Arabia and Sanford I. Weil, the top owners of Citigroup, were making additional personal investments in the latter. The NJ State $81B pension fund will invest $700M in Citigroup and Merrill Lynch. More investments are coming from TPG-Axon, a $9B fund run by a former Goldman executive, and Olayan Group, run by a Saudi investor and Merrill board member, and from Mizuho Financial Group, Japan’s second largest financial institution . It cannot be said that major investors have lost faith in the US institutions. On the other hand, nothing has been heard from NYS and California pension funds, prime powers in finance, and Citicorp’s tightening credit is counterproductive. Hmm…

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LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

There is a new phenomenon on the American political scene that moves those of us who want to think ahead to 2008 to revise our political criteria, first in the basics of electability vs. ideas. What is more important – voting for a set of principles or for the candidate least disagreeable for the most people?
Most voters will resolve it by looking for electability first. In the Democratic Party there has not been much choice, the alternatives were Hillary and non-Hillary, i.e. the field, until Barack Obama decided to consider running.

If the junior senator from Illinois had not appeared on the scene at the 2004 Democratic Convention, he would have to have been invented, to pull a politics-tired electorate out of the doldrums of internecine/ partisan/ negative politics. It is not that what he says is so different, it is that he is different, totally counter to the image of a standard politician, young-looking and handsome in a way that clearly shows his mother’s Kansan and his father’s Kenyan heritage. A product of a broken family, brought up in Hawaii and Indonesia, mainly by his maternal grandparents, graduate of Columbia and Harvard Law (president of the Law Review), author of two books, a father of two and a Christian, he looks like someone who could bring on an era of new politics, of post-partisan and post-civil rights struggle climate, and give us a positive outlook. A law professor with a major dose of cool charisma uncommon for his age, he speaks without screaming or rousing the masses with fighting words, and conveys trustworthiness just by being straight and seeming to mean what he says. A Republican campaign manager characterizes him as Reagan-likeable, and a Jimmy Stewart "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington" comparison has surfaced. Interestingly, his biggest weakness — lack of experience in national politics — becomes an asset Catch the tenor of what he says:

"The decisions that have been made in Washington these past six years, and the problems that have been ignored, have put our country in a precarious place."

"America has faced big problems before, but today, our leaders in Washington seem incapable of working together in a practical, commonsense way. Politics has become so bitter and partisan, so gummed up by money and influence, that we can't tackle the big problems that demand solutions."

"Americans are struggling financially, dependence on foreign oil threatens the environment and national security and we are still mired in a tragic and costly war that should have never been waged."

These are not dynamic words, but he seems to mean them. As to whether Americans will be able to swallow the lump in their throats and vote for Obama, in the primary and in a general election, is an interesting question. The voters would have readily accepted General Colin Powell, an established rock of reliability with 35 distinguished years of military duty and subsequent government service, also a 2nd generation American, a Bronx kid and CCNY grad, but this youngster… But as of the moment the disgust with old politics is so far-reaching, that he may be seen as the only hope, not just domestically but even more so abroad, to slow down the Iraqi, Iranian, North Korean, Venezuelan, European and other enemities of the old US foreign policy, and give a fresh start to the tired negotiations. The pictures alone, on TV everywhere, repeatedly, of a young person, looking like "them," not only an ethnic but a true Third-Worlder, not just working for The Man but being The Man himself, he should make them pause and give the US at least a year of of time for reacquiring the democratic stature we have lost.

So Democratic Sen. of Illinois Barack Obama is taking the initial step in a presidential bid that could make him the nation's first Black to occupy the White House. He will announce more about his plans in his home state of Illinois on Feb. 10.
"I certainly didn't expect to find myself in this position a year ago," Obama explains, "I have been struck by how hungry we all are for a different kind of politics. So I have spent some time thinking about how I could best advance the cause of change and progress that we so desperately need."

Obama’ s decision has now forced Sen. Clinton to actually step forward, with an exploratory committee of her own, taking the attention and the money-givers away from Obama as well as from the field, the other Democrats who have announced campaigns or exploratory committees, 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards, former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd and Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio. The Democratic clubs of New York City, such as the four in our 74th Ad (Tilden, Eleanor Roosevelt, GSID and CODA), currently resting and enjoying their victories in the 2006 election, may want to start addressing the redefined 2008 issues.

And now Gov. William Richardson of New Mexico is reopening the thinking about his candidacy in 2008. This suddenly offers a kind of dream ticket for fixing the world, with Obama as the front man and Richardson as the negotiator.

Just thinking out loud.

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

On January 9, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg appeared before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security, to tell the uninitiated the difference between risks and vulnerabilities, a/k/a targets, that we all face in this era of terrorist threat. The NYTimes reporter chose to treat is as a side story, of the Mayor’s home telephones, particularly the unlisted unsecured security phone in the basement that is his emergency contacts (it does have encryption at both ends), equivalent to the red phones that international leaders prominently display on their desks. The Mayor’s is never used, except for incoming nuisance telemarketers’ calls. That prompted some Senator to mention the Mayors’ incognito traveling on the subway, an example of his efficiency-above-risk attitude applied to his actual everyday life. Our Haroun-al-Rashid, cruising his Baghdad-on-the-Subway…

So, what is this vulnerability all about? Well, it is an example of a prioritizing approach that people in business risk assessment apply daily, not quite bought into by lawmakers who can spend money without a responsible businessperson’s sense of fiduciary responsibility, an attitude that has resulted in Laramie County WY being one of the six best protected sites against terrorism in this entire county. This column has not looked into the subject in detail, but that is where VP Cheney comes from, and, when researched, one would probably finds that Laramie is bristling with bomb removal robots, hazmat vehicles and jobs in security for underemployed cowpokes.

This attitude of our elected leaders is justified under the innocuous sounding principle of revenue sharing, giving money back to areas from which it came, not necessarily in proportion, a posture that justifies lawmakers’ occasionally building bridges to nowhere, four-lane highways connecting small rural towns, and anti-terrorist protection for cornfields. Risk identification theory may state that every one of the 11 million 40-foot containers that reach the ports of the US is equally exposed, as is each of the 103 US nuclear power plants. Yes, they are risks. As for being targets, or vulnerabilities, in the world we live in, we must be recognizing the probability theory. Osama bin Laden, some time ago, brought that to our attention when he proclaimed a two-fold intention – to destroy all infidels, and to financially demolish them. Arming every Laramie to the gills against terrorists will play into Osama’s second objective. Think of the collapse of USSR, 1990-91.

That the principle of probability is not recognized by some lawgivers was noted when one or more Senators further questioned Mayor Bloomberg about leaving ports and plants inadequately secured. Not too willingly, trying not to give away our secrets, he disclosed that we have resources in major foreign export ports that can identify probable carriers of dangerous materials and of people, selective x-raying and such. Pre-employment screening of longshoremen is in play (it reminded me that we are no longer dealing with Marlon Brando in On the Waterfront; today the work gang is largely replaced by computer technicians who operate sophisticated freight-handling machinery.) Putting every container under equal scrutiny will increase the costs hugely, and destroy competitive commerce. Further, the NYPD has facilities that may surpass the national controls, such as an anti-terrorism bureau that operates in major threatened countries and cities, cooperating with the locals in identifying and observing known bad guys. Regardless of how little federal support NYC gets, the city intends to continue and pay for this task force, which has skills well beyond the standardized national level. Just in language skills, the last class of Police Academy had graduates of 53 national backgrounds, and translation requests sent to Police Plaza can be responded to in minutes.

As to the nuclear power plants, the fact that they are located away from population centers protects their security. More fire engines are redundant, eying the visitors and scrutinizing strangers by local people buys more protection than hazmat vehicles. This is also Mayor Bloomberg’s argument, when a suspicious Senator suggested that he is trying to get NYPD daily expenses paid by the federal government. More equipment is less effective that a watchful policeman. This is an argument against standardizing protection, beloved by the Homeland Security bureaucrats, who would like, for instance, to install cameras on Main Street corners throughout the US. Not only wasteful, it requires impossible reaction time to inhibit, for instance, a suicide bomber. That is why in Israel, the flash point of the universe, suicide bombers are not too successful. They are stopped by policemen and guards who put their lives on the line every day, and survive due to their well-honed human instincts, not cameras. This is not to say that cameras do not have their roles in detecting long-term patterns and, even if not manned, in inhibiting attack, like owl figurines atop the roofs of barns.

We can be proud of our matter-of-factly Mayor, who speaks to the point, straight-forward and without rancor or subterfuge. Washington to copy.

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
On January 1, while waiting to hear Elliot Spitzer’s weather-delayed Gubernatorial acceptance speech I had a chance to hark back to the good old Nelson Rockefeller Governorship days (1959-67). A crew of savants on the daily WNYC Brian Lehrer Show compared the wisdom of contemporary Governors’ words and their actions, and Nelson, his democratic predecessor Harriman and successor Carey came off well ahead..

It seems that Nelson Rockefeller (1908-79) made the most impressive speech, in 1963, asking for a reconciliation of the best elements of Progressivism, Liberalism and Conservativism, referencing a future expectation of perfectibility of human nature, a bit of old-fashioned social engineering (reminiscent of Isaiah Berlin?) that lost its currency in the 1960s, when Liberalism dropped its shine. The speech was statesmanlike, and positive, making one wish for a return of the pre-negative campaigning days (one may quibble that he did not write it, using hired help to fashion the noble words, to carry the message of his Presidential ambitions).But Rockefeller, an early political outsider using his wealth to gain elected office, an amateur not beholden to any machine, the shining example for Corzine and Bloomberg, also made good on a number of his promises, succeeding with education reform , construction, legalized abortion, and the construction of the Albany Mall, rich in art. A contrary character - both the harsh Rockefeller Drug Laws and the liberal Rockefeller Republicans took their names after him – he nevertheless made positive contributions in his unique four elected terms, 1959-73, resigning to become the Vice President by appointment (Herbert Lehman, 1932-42, also had four, but the first three were two-year).

Hugh L. Carey (1974-82), a much undervalued governor, not an orator, with a gravelly voice (I spoke with him in 2005, at a fundraiser) was the one who had to pull NYC out of its critical 1975 fiscal crisis, brought on by the governance of Mayor Lindsey permitting the city to use bond issues to pay for current expenses, make rash Transit strike settlements and commit fiscal irregularities.. After President Ford refused to provide bailout funds (“Ford tells New York to Drop Dead”) Carey brought together bankers, civic officials and economists to work out the crisis. With a Financial Control Board gathering resources, good planning, and a far-ranging Financial Emergency Act, the group established a mandatory balanced annual budget and four-year plans to stabilize the city’s progress, and eventually secured federal backing.

Carey’s successor Mario Cuomo (1982-94), widely acclaimed orator, was known mostly for his opposition to the death penalty, the keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention in 1984, and building of prisons. As an industry for poor upstate NY counties. In his speech he quoted both Pope John and the 3rd Century Rabbi Hillel (“if I am not for myself, who is for me; and when I am for myself, who am I; and if not now, when?”) and called the country to be pragmatic (“if you have a hammer, find a nail”); it should have no more government than it needs and no less government than it requires (how’s that again?)

NYS had been in a depression since 1975 and continuing, when Cuomo was defeated by George Pataki in 1994, as part of the Gingrich Contract with America landslide. In his inaugural, Pataki railed against punitive taxes and excessive government programs and quoted the American revolutionaries fighting the Redcoats as seeking a government that would be their servant and not their master. When government accepts the responsibilities for people, people no longer accept responsibilities for themselves, Petaki claimed, and did go ahead and got rid of “counterproductive programs,” and lowered taxes, consequently shifting the burdens for schools and infrastructure on local real estate taxes, a shameful dodge hallowed by its widespread use by unscrupulous politicians country-wide. Meanwhile the NYS budget, which had been $62B in 1994, rose to $112B in 2006 (where did the money go?), with fights over $2b to $3B deficits every years, and huge delays because the three rulers of Albany could never agree and the legislators had no power to outvote them, matters that gave the business-as-usual NYS Legislature its well deserved world-wide repute for lameness and laxness.

When Elliot Spitzer was finally sworn in, he did not disappoint us, words-wise. Quoting the New York writer (and a former neighbor) Washington Irving’s Rip van Winkle: he said that New York has slept through much of the past decade, and promised to undertake reforms “substantial in size and historic in scope.”, and, further, to make the government ethical and wise, and to rebuild the state economy . He signed five executive orders before the swearing in, notably to establish new ethics guidelines for state workers . Godspeed, Elliot!

Wally Dobelis also thanks Peter Eisenstadt, Esther Fuchs, the Hon. Henry Stern and the Paper of Record, and wishes a Happy and Healthy New Year for all.

Why the European Union works, sort of

While the newsmedia are totally occupied with the turnover of the US legislature to the Democrats, very little is heard of a couple of significant events in the other large Western democracy, the European Union, a federation of 25 (now 27) countries and 455 (now 490) million citizens, who vote every five years to elect the European Parliament of 732 members, that meets for a week of plenary sessions once a month, mostly, in Strasbourg sometimes in Brussels. It just recently added two new poverty-stricken countries to its roster, Rumania and Bulgaria, with some provisions to limit their economic loss exposure . Also, very wisely it decided not to waste effort in developing Querlo, an Internet search machine and portal, to compete with Google and Yahoo.

The subject of world organizations is of direct interest to East Midtown. We are the home of United Nations, and share a responsibility for its future. Not all of us view it as beneficial. For instance , I have heard from a member of CB6, the organization that has some direct responsibilities over the UN’s physical plant, how much it costs NYC taxpayers, in terms of prime properties removed from the tax bill,and in additional police services, expenses that the federal government does not compensate. That on top of the more common complaints about reckless parking, and the useless if not anti-American actions of the institution on the whole.

We can all agree that international cooperation has become an absolute necessity, since the bloodbath of WWII, and the technological advances that have created the interdependencies, and the mutual destruction capacities of the nuclear age.. This has been particularly recognized in Europe, the continent of internecine enemities since the beginnings of history, with the post-WWII progressions from European Coal and Steel Cpmmunity (ECSC), to the European Economic Community (EEC), expanding to the European Union (EU, 27 nations) and a common currency (Euro, 16 nations.) Concurrently, beneficial free trade associations have also sprung up elsewhere - NAFTA, EFTA, ASEAN, Mercosur - , local alliances - African Union, Arab League. There are also the more nasty ones, military alliances based on conquest (Communist Internationale, Warsaw Pact, fortunately now imploded) and defense (NATO, SEATO), as well as on economic dominance (OPEC) .The really nasty groups, based on radical religious ideologies, nationalism and local economics, in the Middle East aqnd Africa, have somewhat bogged down in internecine warfare, enough to give the world some breathing space to step back, talk and decide on common actions – your typical slo-mo UN modality..

In this world EU stands out as an accomplishment, in the cradle of conflicts and wars. It covers practically all of Europe – easier to identify the exclusions than the participants, these being candidate countries Croatia, FYR of Macedonia and Turkey, and other, Switzerland, Norway, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and the Russioan Federation. It really started with six nations, in 1950 – UK, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and Netherlands, - expanding until 2004, when ten mostly ex-USSR contries were admitted en masse. The official beginnings date back to the Maastricht Convention of 1992.

The pillars of EU are the Parliament, as described above, and the Council of European Union (aka Council of Ministers, 27 members.), not to be confused with the European Council, meeting three times a year, its 27 members composed of the presidents and prime ministers of constituent countries enhanced by the president of European Commission , a politically independent group of the 27 with a huge staff, who propose policy. The legislature can be called bi- or tri-cameral, the presidency rotates..The common political principles involve foreign and economic policy, police, border control and immigration. There is a considerable surrender of political independence of constituent untries, and EU can almost be considered a federation, although members may exclude themselves from parts of the EU regulation – thus UK on Euro , France and Denmark on thr constitution. The voting in the CoE is qualified majority voting, with France , Germany, Italy and UK casting 29 votes, tapering down to Poland and Spain at 27, Netherlands at 13 and finally Malta at 3. The Maastricht Strategy for membership involves acceptance of the Euro , price stability, budget deficit under 3% of GDP, national debt not in excess of 60% of GDP. The economic side of EU is overseen by the European Central Bank, the legal authority is the European Court of Justice.

The process of establishing EU was truly gradual, with the “Constitution” of EU set through the Convention on the Future of Europe, Dec 2001 to July 2003, by 105 national leaders and savants.
As to problems, there’s internal EU Turkey knocking at the door, with baggage. But. EU is coping, offering a a time span to cure.

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
xIn the year two-ought-ought-seven I wish you all a bit of heaven, happiness and luck and health, business plans that bring great wealth, great success that swiftly triggers fine returns, in seven figures.

Be prepared to spend your time, working hours beyond sublime, on the job to earn that dime. Take some courses, don’t be dated, learn the laws they call “mandated.” Compliance is not a beach, when you meet with Gramm, Bliley, Leach. Arts of marketing must surcease; “market conduct” is your beast.

Pretexting has gone quite hokey; it may land you in the pokey. Do not call someone who opts out, lack of knowledge is no cop-out. Need for privacy will trip ya, ‘less you study up on HIPAA; implementing will cost plentity if you are a covered entity.

Learn to do risk analysis, identify threats and vulnerabilities. Health info –what’s personal, and, when is it merely statistical (PHI and e-PHI can be quite mystical.) Make your info well protected, all transmissions encrypted, look out for your CRU, guard your tongue, yes, you too.When funds come in that smack of plunder, drug deposits, make you wonder, you may be facing money launder.

Be suspicious, can’t use tact, and check it out, under the aegis of Patriot Act. When the corporate margins slip, some of us will take a trip; our careers may well be queered as our firms are reengineered. Keep the resume intact, save your contacts, don’t slack. Things can truly turn appalling when Mr. Downsize comes calling. Leveraged buyouts are no fun unless you are a Kohlberg Kravis Roberts Hun.

Though your service years count two-score, your job may still be outsourced, offshore. If your new aid is a lascar, learn to smile and say “namascar.” Join a trade group, go to meetings, get their mailing list, send greetings, should your numbers drop in the soup, holler to your affinity group.

Pardon me that I should mention, but do look up the terms of your pension. Defined contribution is fine, but defined benefits really shine. Hang on, bub, though sorely tested, stay the course till you’re vested. Save your money, beg or borrow, put your funds with Bill or Soros, you can laugh loud, ha-ha-ha, if your CFSA is the Wiz of Omaha. Don’t be an ignorant donkey, put the bucks in your 401-k.

Finally, you’ve reached the top, you’re the CFO, with stock op. Watch it, son, hold on to your sox, you’re now subject to Sarb-Ox. Be very careful what you say when you sign that big one-oh-kay. If your financials are flimsy, order in some help from McKinsey, hire a Stroock Stroock & Lavan dude to write you a golden parachute'

Should you, lucky son of Mayo, aim for the upper lairs of CIO, watch out for the traps of Mumbai-oh. Firing high-pay in-house ITers will buy you kudos from the mighties, (BoD and such entightities) – but while offshore folk work for less they may leave you with a mess. Whether your system is for wholesale or retail, the devil is in the specifications detail.

Flowcharting is gone, no more, unless you are a dinosaur, IPO, HIPO bit the dust, Waterfall eventually must, iteration is the rage, this is now, the RAD document age. When your tech goes back to Hyderabad, you may be left feeling really sad, your new system may be a black box, lad; without continued knowledge transfer, you’ll be left without an answer.

Thomas Friedman may be right, at that, when he says the world is flat, but beware, don’t bet your hat. When Deng pulled China out of a dump, somebody else had to become the chump. Prices went down thanks to Xiaoping sending us out to go shopping. But while Beijing sells socks wildly, Carolinas’ mills rest idly; can’t find anyone to blame, those are the rules of the zero-sum game.

Listen to the bard of Stratford , dress costly as your purse can afford, give men thy ear, eagerly, but thy voice only beggarly, and to thine own be true, make sure that you always come up blue. As for your resolve, don’t slacken, watch out for the road not taken; destructive is the path of Kozlowski and Lay, a short-term pleasure of making hay, accentuate the positive of Buffet and Gates, hailed as givers throughout the world’s states. Be prepared for a 360 degree review, granually , not just when you ask for your pay rise, annually. History has a word to utter, errors don’t just melt away like butter.

If you follow what I say, you are nearly half the way to a curbstone MBA, and to full-fledged membership in an entity that we loosely refer to as humanity. In addition to those mentioned, Wally Dobelis thanks John von Neumann, Oscar Morgenstern, Robert Frost, Roger Angell, George W. Bush and the unsung wordsmiths of the US Department of Health and Human Resources.

Escaping New York – by Amtrack to Boston

IT is not that I dislike flying, it is that this trip of 250 miles which I used to make in four hours by car, costs a lot more on the Delta shuttle than Amtrack’s $94, each way, that is,. I am not quite up to driving in the early December, with the sun low and fading at 2 PM.

Amtrack is not all fun. To begin, this was the first day of the new taxi rates, and the traffic to Penn Station was all waiting, with the meter clicking away. Then the line at the ticket booth, with a great mob rushing the satairs. By adroit maneuvering I got to the side of the entrance, and in minutes, past the friendly ID checking lady. Next move was to get a window seat, by practically running to the penultimate car – never take the last, the passers-through are always hopeful, but in the last car they will make you move over and share.

That particular stratagem worked, and I had a full seat to stretch out my legs, asd the train soundlessly moved through the long tunnel, emerging in upper Manhattan, a sea of brownrn rooftops shining to the west in the late sun, hundreds of three story tall homes now and then broken by five story ones (I remembered that this was the max height that could be built without an elevator.) Soon we crossed the East River, into equally dreary Bronx, mostly factories, many inactive, and warehouses. More water and we were in the country. Since the lights were on, I plugged in and booted my battery-less laptop, to write this tale, but as soon as the computer’s tabletop with icons lit up, the juice broke, the car turnrd dark and so did my screen. Undaunted I rebooted as sonn as the lights turned bright again, watched over by a conductor who assured me that there would be no more than 3-4 such events before Boston. I lost my faith in him by Stamford, after five blackouts, and walked to the buffet car, to get a sandwich. Imagine my surprise in seeing about eight to ten laptop users busily working in each of the six cars. Apparently I was the only one who came not pepared with a battery driven machine.

The buffet attendant was busily explaining to a client why he ate in New York before getting into the car. It was clear why he had , besides shocolate and oatmeal cookies there were only packaged crackers and cheese left, plus bags of chips. I choose the chocolate cookee, on the theory expounded to me by a women that chocolate has anti-oxidents. It also tasted good, lasting all the way through the six cars, to my seat, strategically decorated with two shoulder-bags, my action. I overcame my guilt feelinga by observing that there were other single-occupied seats, as sat back to enjoy the scenery. But by now the neat Connecticut harbor scenes with boats hauled out and wrapped in white sheets, this side of New Haven, had given way to wintery darkening woods. I turned away, to catch up with an old New Yorker, which ran out of value before Providence with its long row of desolate warehouses. Boston was near.

Getting out a Boston’s Back Bay was tempting – there is a Nieman Marcus, only one in the East of my reach, directly across the street, but I was laden withtwo bags and bound and determined to walk to the Hilton Hotel, my destination. I shoukd explain that my mission was a two day seminar on HIPAA security, the protection of the privacy of citizen’s medical jistorues, a law signed by Clinton and implemented by regulations only in 2003 and 2005, hard and costly toimplemented, with no enfprcement and penalties designed by HHD, under Cuomo and his successors, except when identity theft and similar felonious actions took place.

This is a 15 minute walk through dark streets with tall quiet office buildings and hotels, which can be lightened up by walking through the Copley Plsaza and Prudential Center shopping areas, huge markets connected by a glass-walled crossover bridge, like the DeGaulle Airport in Paris, traversing the traffic-filled wide Huntington Avenue. This led directly to the door of my Back Bay Hilton Hotel.

I got to like the Pru Center in the next two days, first as lunch and dinner provider, from the costly Legar Sea Foods branch to the Food Court eateries, Boston Chawda my favorite, the popular Paradise Bakery and Café, Panda Chinese ans Qdoba Moroccan Grill.More popular priced chain food is also available nearby, on Mass Avenue - a Wendy’s and such, a Chuck’s (the junkyard dog), and the Bukowski Tavern a block away, the walls covered by Beat writer’s texts, enlarged, and primitive black and white murals, by a girlftiend, named Christina or maybe Gretchen. A fit memorial for Charles Bukowski.

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis


In the year two-ought-ought-seven I wish you all a bit of heaven, happiness and luck and health, business plans that bring great wealth, great success that swiftly triggers fine returns, in seven figures.

Be prepared to spend your time, working hours beyond sublime, on the job to earn that dime. Take some courses, don’t be dated, learn the laws they call “mandated.” Compliance is not a beach, when you meet with Gramm, Bliley, Leach. Arts of marketing must surcease; “market conduct” is your beast. Pretexting has gone quite hokey; it may land you in the pokey. Do not call someone who opts out, lack of knowledge is no cop-out.

Need for privacy will trip ya, ‘less you study up on HIPAA; implementing will cost plentity if you are a covered entity. Learn to do risk analysis, identify threats and vulnerabilities. Health info –what’s personal, and, when is it merely statistical (PHI and e-PHI can be quite mystical.) Make your info well protected, all transmissions encrypted, look out for your CRU, guard your tongue, yes, you too.When funds come in that smack of plunder, drug deposits, make you wonder, you may be facing money launder. Be suspicious, can’t use tact, and check it out, under the aegis of Patriot Act.

When the corporate margins slip, some of us will take a trip; our careers may well be queered as our firms are reengineered. Keep the resume intact, save your contacts, don’t slack. Things can truly turn appalling when Mr. Downsize comes calling. Leveraged buyouts are no fun unless you are a Kohlberg Kravis Roberts Hun. Though your service years count two-score, your job may still be outsourced, offshore. If your new aid is a lascar, learn to smile and say “namascar.” Join a trade group, go to meetings, get their mailing list, send greetings, should your numbers drop in the soup, holler to your affinity group.

Pardon me that I should mention, but do look up the terms of your pension. Defined contribution is fine, but defined benefits really shine. Hang on, bub, though sorely tested, stay the course till you’re vested. Save your money, beg or borrow, put your funds with Bill or Soros, you can laugh loud, ha-ha-ha, if your CFSA is the Wiz of Omaha. Don’t be an ignorant donkey, put the bucks in your 401-k.

Finally, you’ve reached the top, you’re the CFO, with stock op. Watch it, son, hold on to your sox, you’re now subject to Sarb-Ox. Be very careful what you say when you sign that big one-oh-kay. If your financials are flimsy, order in some help from McKinsey, hire a Stroock Stroock & Lavan dude to write you a golden parachute.

Should you, lucky son of Mayo, aim for the upper lairs of CIO, watch out for the traps of Mumbai-oh. Firing high-pay in-house ITers will buy you kudos from the mighties,
(BoD and such entightities) – but while offshore folk work for less they may leave you with a mess. Whether your system is for wholesale or retail, the devil is in the specifications detail. Flowcharting is gone, no more, unless you are a dinosaur, IPO, HIPO bit the dust, Waterfall eventually must, iteration is the rage, this is now, the RAD document age. When your tech goes back to Hyderabad, you may be left feeling really sad, your new system may be a black box, lad; without continued knowledge transfer, you’ll be left without an answer. Tommie Friedman may be right, at that, when he says the world is flat, but beware, don’t bet your hat. When Deng pulled China out of a dump, somebody else had to become the chump. Prices went down thanks to Xiaoping sending us out to go shopping. But while Beijing sells socks wildly, Carolinas’ mills rest idly; can’t find anyone to blame, those are the rules of the zero-sum game.

Listen to the bard of Stratford , dress costly as your purse can afford, give men thy ear, eagerly, but thy voice only beggarly, and to thine own be true, make sure that you always come up blue. As for your resolve, don’t slacken, watch out for the road not taken; destructive is the path of Kozlowski and Lay, a short-term pleasure of making hay, accentuate the positive of Buffet and Gates, hailed as givers throughout the world’s states.

Be prepared for a 360 degree review, granually , not just when you ask for your pay rise, annually. History has a word to utter, errors don’t just melt away like butter.

If you follow what I say, you are nearly half the way to a curbstone MBA, and to full-fledged membership in an entity that we loosely refer to as humanity.

In addition to those mentioned, Wally Dobelis thanks John von Neumann, Oscar Morgenstern, Robert Frost, Roger Angell, George W. Bush and the unsung wordsmiths of the US Department of Health and Human Resources.