Thursday, September 25, 2003

 

Dr. Paranoia sees the Brits at the root of the Iraq war

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

A bold proclamation from Dr P.: "Oil is the lifebloood of the world. All political and military actions of the industrialized nations are related to oil. A chief national interest of a government is to assure steady and dependable supply of oil. The Left has learned to link greed of oil companies to wars. That is a socialist oversimplification – for greed substitute the self-interest of nations. British self-interest explains the enthusiasm of Tony Blair, much derided as a Bush lap-dog.That’s far from the truth. He, as much a Laborite as a British globalist, may well be deep at the initiation of the Iraq war."

When asked for sources, Dr. P. explains that, looking for inside information, he had gone back to the midtown bar frequented by the Texan who knows. The man was there, drinking Maker's Mark bourbon, with a friend. No introductions were made, although the friend was identified as a golfer from Bethesda.. Upon the doctor's question about oil, the Texan exploded with the above, "lifeblood of the world" homily and the Blair link, followed by a history construct. His story:

England has been much in the Middle East because their empire, which supplied raw materials needed for the industrial machines of Manchester and Liverpool, the world's manufacturer of finished goods, had to depend for fuel on the hard-mined coal fields of Cardiff. Oil of the Ottoman Empire was a much more desirable combustible, and WWI was the Brits’ vehicle of entry. The Turks, who foolishly sided with the Kaiser, suffered a breakup after their Versailles, the Treaty of Sevres (1918) . The part that had been ancient Persia turned into a virtual British protectorate, with Anglo-Iranian Oil company conceded to the Brtitish by the Qajar Dynasty. The country became Iran in 1935, under Shah Reza Pahlavi, but the National Front under Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh took control in 1951, drove out the Shah and nationalized the oil company. The British tried to a return the Shah, but no dice - until they involved the US . One theory sees President Eisenhower, persuaded by Churchill that Iran might turn Communist and a Cold War enemy, had the CIA foster a revolution. Kermit Roosevelt, TR's grandson, was the agent and Moslem extremists and paid-off strong-arm rowdies such as sports clubs (wrestlers!) were his army, as they occupied the streets and forced the moderate Mossadegh out, returning the reluctant Pahlavi to the throne in 1953. But his arrogant police, the Savak, got too blood-thirdty. The authoritarian secularist rulers suppressed the orthodox religionists. The lead Ayatollah, Ruhollah Khomeini, emigrated to France and fostered a revolution. Religious unrest forced Pahlavi out in 1978, the Shiite religionist militia overwhelmed the Shah's modernists, Khomeini took over, and a militant group seized the US Embassy and held its employees as hostages, until January 1981, President Regan's inauguration. The 1980 oil war between Iran and Iraq, with Saddam Hussein quietly supported by the US, lasted eight years but failed to dislodge the Shiite radicals, and the British never got to regain their steady oil source.

That was a blow, because another oil source had dried up on them. The Iraq Petroleum Company, fostered by the British through their 1920s mandate over the Middle East, when they carefully manicured the various kingdoms, with Hashemite King Faisal ruling Iraq and its oil, was nationalized in 1975 by Saddam Hussein's Baath predecessors after the Hashemites were overthrown. IPC had been owned by British Petroleum, Shell and the French company now Total/Fina/Elf, a quarter each, plus Mobil and Standard Oil. Although they signed the agreement, after much protest, and received compensation, the past owners would like to have their rights reconsidered, when Saddam is gone. Will US and Britain concur? You betcha! Access to all those oil reserves through a friendly Iraqi regime would give the allied group’s economies a leg up. This kind of speculation makes the motivation of Tony Blair more understandable, not to speak of that of the US.

You must understand the French position, interjected the Texan's companion. The French, excluding themselves from the Iraq war allies, nevertheless would like to be part of the oil dividend, as would the Russians, whom Saddam Hussein had promised a share in Kirkuk.The chances of a cut in the oil distribution can bring them back, into a UN-backed joint action with the allies. This potential of sharing the oil may explain why Powell is so boldly asking other nations to contribute to the peacekeeping and the restoration of Iraq .

Dr. P wanted to explore the reason for President Bush boldly admitting that alQaeda had no role in the 9/11 attack, when 69 percent of Americans believe that they did. At this point the Texan decided to leave, His final words, in an almost oracle-like whisper, were: "think strap [strategic planning]. man. You will see, the red [Republican-voting] states will believe what they want anyway, and Bush now justify overthrowing Saddam, using credible reasons. Populate your matrix, man, then you’ll catch the drift."

When the bourbon drinkers were gone, Dr. P asked the bartender about the newcomer. "Oh, him, that's Tom Breedman, has a horse farm in Maryland. Plays a lot of golf with Arabs, knows the Middle East. Hates the French. Nice tip, thanks!"

The author thanks Stephen Kinzer (“All the Shah’s Men”)..

Tuesday, September 16, 2003

 

Dr. Paranoia solves the US and world's economic problems. No kidding.

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

Dr P. believes that globalization is a mixed blessing. The US Information Technology (IT) and communications superiority has been able to spread knowledge and increase economic status in countries across the world, to the point that other nations can successfully bid on IT projects here, offering corporations and governments to bring in systems at a fraction of US labor cost. Bottom-line governed US firms are firing Americans and giving jobs to Indian firms, and by the end of 2004 eight out of ten CIOs (Chief Information Officers) are expected to seek cost savings offshore. Thus Computerworld and Gartner Consulting, reliable forecasters of trends.

IBM is India’s fifth largest employer, EDS will go from 100 to 20,000 offshore employees next year, and Accenture is opening a large facility in China. Surveys show that IT outsourcing goes 38% to India, 6% to China, Mexico, Ireland and Canada each, 4% to Malaysia, Singapore, Russia and Philippines each. The remainder is spread to such countries as Pakistan ad Uganda, which only goes to show that the entire world is modernizing. India is adding 180,000 engineering graduates to its workforce annually.

One US position to take is long-term, that parochial attitudes throughout the LDCs (Less Developed Countries) are changing, and with the arrival of capitalism, secularization and democratization may not be far behind. That’s good for our side, the US as the policeman, eradicating terrorism, and the driving force for one world, unified in pursuit of equality and justice for all.

On the other hand, short-term, this outsourcing hurts the recovery of US economy. We already took the hits from NAFTA and WTO and GATT , which has removed a lot of manual jobs from the US market place, depriving such unionized workers as the textile, shoe and electronic device assemblers of their livelihood and forcing them to learn a lot, or become a burden to the social system. A catch-22, of global proportion. The tax and government service cutters would let the technologically handicapped die on the mountainside, exposed to the elements, the way ancient Spartans treated their elders. Seriously, what do we do with low-tech people? The social justice people would take care of them, bankrupting the economy. The in-between people would monkey with tariffs, trade prohibitions and such.

Actually, there is a solution. US is still the technologically most developed country in the world. Mass production of consumer products is not our forte, not since we let the genie out of the box. The Luddite economists who want to slow down progress because it destroys ecology are lacking in common sense, or they are adherents of traditional Moslem faith. If we the US do not move forward, someone else will. The US really has a manifest destiny, in economics as well as in world preservation. So, what is the answer?

Well, says Dr. P. If we continue to advance technology, a group of advanced thinkers will reap the initial benefits of their work, until the duplicators buy in. That’s applicable to IT, medicine, food. But then there’s energy. Energy is our next frontier, without doubt. Put your faith in it, bet on it, move it, talk it up. The world’s practically extractable hydrocarbon supply will cease in 35 years, probably less. We must find new technology, or else all function ceases on Planet Earth, within the generation of our children, or their children. That’s both an economic task and a challenge. In Rust Belt we have lost our leadership, here we regain it. The Bushites have partially recognized it, dedicating $10 billion to it. Not enough, but why is there no initiative showing? This effort has to start, soon. It may be basic to ou economic recovery, given the bad vibes from the marketplace. The perpetual Cassandra of the marketplace, Martin Weiss, is screaming about a collapse of the badly overextended banking system, the unsupportable price/earnings ratios of 30 and the phony low 6.4% unemployment figures. We need a real upsurge in productivity. Thriving for an energy breakthrough would move the US well forward.

Washington to copy, credit Dr P., when the world recovers. He’ll wait. This is serious stuff.

Sunday, September 14, 2003

 

Tourism causes environmental stress

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis


As we in the US worry about such environmental issues as Alaskan oil, Rust Belt factory smoke output, and, particularly in New York, the government hiding from us the toxic contents of the haze emamating for months from Ground Zero after 9/11/2001, itr may be interesting to note how environmentalism is faring on Planet Earth. As a side note to the hiding of Ground Zero information, this is what governments have done in all the wars of our memory. The supestructure, while praising the heroic efforts of the soldiers and workers, and the positive attitude of the population, worries about early pension applications and class action lawsuits, as the heroes get older and experience symptoms of emphysema and other disorders that might be attributable to their selfless exposure to the poisons.


Okay, the world environment.The headline news of the researchers toiling for the Conservation International and UNEP (Environmental Program), whose 1000 delegates are conferencing in South Africa during September 2003, deals with 25 "biodiversity hotspots, " threatened by tourism, the mainstay of income for many many LDCs (Less Developed Countries) . Island cultures, arid countries and tropical forests put under pressure by economic development due to tourism are the majority of those impacted. Typically, stress on the limited water supply causes damages to the environment and the aspects of nature tourists come to enjoy, and the visits cease, but the destruction has been done.


The critics worry us that tourism generates 11 percent of the world's GDP, employs 200 million people and yearly transports 700 million international travelers, a number that was 10 million in 1960 and should double by 2020(!). The guess he is that, in its full implications (construction, food, vehicles), tourism numbers might be even higher, superceding other industries as the world's main income generator. In the past decade the count of visitors has grown 20-fold in Laos and Cambodia, five-fold in South Africa and three-fold in I Brazil, El Salvador and Nicaragua, more than doubling in Dominican Republic.


In 49 LDCs it is a principal export (#1 in 37). But it uproots indigenous people, causes social and cultural disruptions, and destroys nature. There is a need to protect nature's biodiversity by integrating tourism planning. Some 700 plus threatened species of nature remain totally unprotected: 223 bird, 140 mammal and 346 amphibian varieties. In serious danger of extinction are the flyinf fox of Comoro and mouse opossum of Columbia.


As an outsider, one wonders whether the tourists are getting too much unilateral criticism. economic development, industrialization attempts and population growth, trends that have destroyed fragile sub- Saharan agriculture, do not seem to come in for criticism from this group of ecologists. The fact is that funds from tourism and environmentalist enthusiasts awakened by what they have seen on trips account for substantial funds volunteered to protect the areas. While Cancun was inhabited by 12 familiess before 1970, it is now visited by 2.6 million vacationers a year. Tourism has brought exchequer to help in feeding Mexico. The barrier island's mangtove and inland leafy forests have been cut and sewage treatment is lacking for the settlements, but there would not have been any, and no wages except for the foreign money.


Herewith some statistics of conservation. A total of 102,102 areas are protected , such as World Heritage Sites and biosphere reserves, 1.4% of the planet's land area, 18 million square kms, a little more than all of Russia, or a little less than the US and Canada combined. In Europe there are 43K protected areas, 18K in Northern Eurasia, 13K in North America (just over 18 percent of its land area) , 9K in Australia/New Zealand, 9K in Africa, and some 4K in marine areas.\


The largest ten are Greenland's National Park (348K sq. km, equivalent of California, Oregon and Nevada combined), Texas-size An -Rub-al-Khali wildlife area in Saudi Arabia (247K sq. km), the Great Barier Reef Marine Park in Australia (132K sq. km), the same-sized Northwestern Hawaii coral reef ecological system , nearly same-sized Amazonia forest reserve in Colombia, Quiang Tang nature reserve in China (96K), Cape Churchill wildlife system in North Canada (54K), another Saudi northern wildlife protection system (39K), the Alto Orinoco-Casiquare biosphere reserve in Venezuela/Bolivia (Maine-size, 8K) and the similar, Velo de Javari in Brasil. Much of the national reconition of nature's needs for protection has come after 1960, and much of it is in name only.That leaves the ecologists unsatisfied, particularly since five of the 14 biomes, or major terrestrial ecological communities identified in a key 1992 World's Park meeting have not been protected. The tropical humid forests of Amazonia are 23% protected, and the warm and arid deserts (e.g. Sahara), the rain forests and the "mixed island systems" (Indonesia) are well. But, lake systems, temperate grasslands, cold winter deserts (Gobi), temperate leaf forsts (North America, North Europe), needle leaf forests (Scotland, Scandinavia) have not secured protected area status. The rich countrie are not taking care of themselves.

Thursday, September 11, 2003

 

Do not open strange e-mail, warns Dr. ParanoiaOn

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

A message from Dr. Paranoia: With hackers sending viruses and worms, attempting to infest our computers, this constant user of the Internet has real concerns about being infected, particularly since he receives some 90 spams a day. He deletes the spams singly, never ever opening any strange ones. It is a five-minute task, but he feels that using bulk procedures might lose some valuable e-mail messages.

The recently discovered Blaster.E and SoBig.F worms are still with us, per CIAC, the DoE’s Computer Incident Advisory Capacity, and need be guarded against. To quote:

(8/18) W32.Blaster.E, a variant of the original Blaster worm, attempts to download the mslaugh.exe file to the WinDir system32 directory and then execute it. The W32.Blaster.E. apparently does not have a mass-mailing functionality.

(8/25) Sobig.F is scheduled to launch attacks on Fridays and Sundays until it expires on September 10, 2003. CIAC continues to recommend not opening e-mail attachments associated with the Sobig.F types of e-mail.
In addition to the real threats, Dr. P. receives hoaxes, warnings of spurious disasters sent by well-meaning friends who have been fooled. Of the dozen or so received, three are quoted below. All were received in 2003. Their stories are persuasive.
The WTC Survivor hoax. “I received this from a reliable family friend this morning. BIG TROUBLE !!!! Do not open "WTC Survivor. It is a virus that will erase your whole "C" drive. It will come to you in the form of an E-Mail from a familiar person. I repeat a friend sent it to me, but called and warned me before I opened it. He was not so lucky and now he can't even start his computer! Forward this to everyone in your address book. I would rather receive this 25 times than not not all. If you receive an email called "WTC Survivor" do not open it. Delete it right away! This virus removes all dynamic link libraries (.dll files) from your computer. This is a serious one.”

The It Takes Guts hoax gets slightly more hysterical. “Pass this on to everyone you have an e-mail address for!!!.If you receive an email titled: "It Takes Guts to Say Jesus." DO NOT OPEN IT. It will erase everything on your hard drive.This information was announced yesterday morning from IBM; AOL states that this is a very dangerous virus, much worse than "Melissa," and that there is NO Remedy for it at this time. Some very sick individual has succeeded in using the reformat function from Norton Utilities, causing it to completely erase all documents on the hard drive. It has been designed to work with Netscape Navigator and Microsoft Internet Explorer. It destroys Macintosh and IBM compatible computers.

“This is a new, very malicious virus and not many people know about it. Pass
this warning along to EVERYONE in your address book and please share it with all your online friends ASAP so that this threat maybe stopped..”

The next, known as the 90# hoax, has some basis in fact, with certain old PBX systems that require dialing 9 for outgoing calls. The hoaxer has embroidered it a lot. “I received a telephone call last evening from an individual identifying himself as an AT&T Service technician who was conducting a test on telephone lines. He stated that to complete the test I should touch nine(9), zero(0), the pound sign (#), and then hang up. Luckily, I was suspicious and refused. Upon contacting the telephone company, I was informed that by pushing 90#, you give the requesting individual full access to your telephone line, which enables them to place long distance calls billed to your home phone number.

“I was further informed that this scam has been originating from many local
prisons. I have also verified this information with UCB Telecom, Pacific Bell, MCI, Bell Atlantic and GTE. Please beware. DO NOT press 90# for ANYONE. The GTE Security Department requested that I share this information with everyone I know. Please pass this on to everyone YOU know.”

In addition to hoaxes, Dr. P also has received real viruses, such as varieties of the W32.Klez worm. Thie latest version masquerades as an e-mail message, from a regular correspondent or a stranger, with an innocent subject line that perks your curiosity, such as “A funny game,” “Your system requirements,” “Eager to see you,” “End of invisible stuff,” and three attachments, mostly c.htm, index.htm and .txt. Do not open the attachments; if you do, the worm may use your address book to send itself to your correspondents, using your name and computer. The malicious form also fills up your storage space. Delete and purge the critter, that is Dr. P’s helpful hint for the last week of the summer.

The editors sincerely regret the inadvertent errors in the obituary of Judge Robert J. Ward (T&V, Aug 14, 2003). The Judge's former law clerk who spoke at the services was Robert Hillman, and the suggested charities for donations are the MS Society, NY Chapter, and the Jewish Board of Family and Child Services.


Thursday, September 04, 2003

 

Do not open strange e-mails, warns Dr. Paranoia

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

A message from Dr. Paranoia: With hackers sending viruses and worms, attempting to infest our computers, this constant user of the Internet has real concerns about being infected, particularly since he receives some 90 spams a day. He deletes the spams singly, never ever opening any strange ones. It is a five-minute task, but he feels that using bulk procedures might lose some valuable e-mail messages.

The recently discovered Blaster.E and SoBig.F worms are still with us, per CIAC, the DoE’s Computer Incident Advisory Capacity, and need be guarded against. To quote:

As of 8/18, W32.Blaster.E, a variant of the original Blaster worm, has been seen on the internet. This worm attempts to download the mslaugh.exe file to the WinDir system32 directory and then execute it. While the W32.Blaster.E. apparently does not have a mass-mailing functionality, users should keep updating their security solutions.

As of 8/25, experts say that Sobig.F is scheduled to launch attacks on Fridays and Sundays until it expires on September 10, 2003. CIAC continues to recommend not opening e-mail attachments associated with the Sobig.F types of e-mail. Continue to check with your anti-virus vendors for updated virus definition files for this worm.
In addition to the real threats, Dr. P. receives hoaxes, warnings of spurious disasters sent by well-meaning friends who have been fooled. Of the dozen or so received, three are quoted below, “WTC Survivor,” “It takes guts…” and “90#.” All were received in 2003. Their stories are persuasive.
The WTC Survivor hoax. “I received this from a reliable family friend this morning. BIG TROUBLE !!!! Do not open "WTC Survivor. It is a virus that will erase your whole "C" drive. It will come to you in the form of an E-Mail from a familiar person. I repeat a friend sent it to me, but called and warned me before I opened it. He was not so lucky and now he can't even start his computer! Forward this to everyone in your address book. I would rather receive this 25 times than not not all. If you receive an email called "WTC Survivor" do not open it. Delete it right away! This virus removes all dynamic link libraries (.dll files) from your computer. This is a serious one.”

The It Takes Guts hoax gets slightly hysterical. “Pass this on to everyone you have an e-mail address for!!!.If you receive an email titled: "It Takes Guts to Say Jesus." DO NOT OPEN IT. It will erase everything on your hard drive.This information was announced yesterday morning from IBM; AOL states that this is a very dangerous virus, much worse than "Melissa," and that there is NO Remedy for it at this time. Some very sick individual has succeeded in using the reformat function from Norton Utilities, causing it to completely erase all documents on the hard drive. It has been designed to work with Netscape Navigator and Microsoft Internet Explorer. It destroys Macintosh and IBM compatible computers.

“This is a new, very malicious virus and not many people know about it. Pass
this warning along to EVERYONE in your address book and please share it with all your online friends ASAP so that this threat maybe stopped. Please practice cautionary measures and tell anyone that may have access to your computer. Forward this warning to everyone that you know that might access the Internet.”

The next, known as the 90# hoax, has some basis in fact, with certain old PBX systems that require dialing 9 for outgoing calls. The Hoaxer has embroidered it a lot. “I received a telephone call last evening from an individual identifying himself as an AT&T Service technician who was conducting a test on telephone lines. He stated that to complete the test I should touch nine(9), zero(0), the pound sign (#), and then hang up. Luckily, I was suspicious and refused. Upon contacting the telephone company, I was informed that by pushing 90#, you give the requesting individual full access to your telephone line, which enables them to place long distance calls billed to your home phone number.

“I was further informed that this scam has been originating from many local
prisons. I have also verified this information with UCB Telecom, Pacific Bell, MCI, Bell Atlantic and GTE. Please beware. DO NOT press 90# for ANYONE. The GTE Security Department requested that I share this information with everyone I know. Please pass this on to everyone YOU know.”

In addition to hoaxes, Dr. P also has received real viruses, such as varieties of the W32.Klez worm. Thie latest version masquerades as an e-mail message, from a regular correspondent or a stranger, with an innocent subject line that perks your curiosity, such as “A funny game,” “Your system requirements,” “Eager to see you,” “End of invisible stuff,” and three attachments, mostly c.htm, index.htm and .txt. Do not open the attachments; if you do, the worm will use your address book to send itself to your correspondents, using your name and computer. It also fills up your storage space. Delete and purge the critter, that is Dr. P’s helpful hint for the last week of the summer.

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