Thursday, August 31, 2006

 

Chief issues and contradictions in the Union Square redesign clarified

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

The Union Square Park can have either an extended playground area or an extended seasonal restaurant in the Pavilion, but not both. That is the
apparent conclusion after absorbing the presentations brought out in the community meeting attended by over 100 activists on Tuesday August 22 at the
Seafarers, called by the Union Square Community Coalition and Citizens For Union Square.

The core basics of the current Parks Dept/Union Square Partnership- sponsored $14M design are simple – the playground that will consist of the two current playgrounds at the park grade level plus the “pit” now housing the Luna restaurant is to be sunk to the pit level. That means caregivers with strollers will need ramps or stairways or both, a major inconvenience and space-waster, a first in the NYC park system of 1700 venues. The bathrooms will be built in a separate building in the NE corner; still an inconvenience (the bathroom structure also destroys a green area.) The current dilapidated bathrooms, on the pit level
in the Pavilion, are to be converted to the kitchens of the restaurant, The dining area will be constructed at the park level; all this for a six-month revenue producing facility.

The logical approach would be to fill in the pit, have the entire expanded playground on park grade level, and restore the Pavilion restrooms for year-round
use, with a staircase. This is more or less the USCC Alternate Plan, as expressed by Barry Benepe, the nationally recognized designer of
the Greenmarket system. As a restaurant compromise, one might construct a food stand upstairs in the Pavilion, at popular prices,on the model of the Shake Shack in Madison Square Park (still anathema to the preservationists.)

The speakers at the meeting, moderated by Stanley Bulbach, all from USCC/CFUS, discussed aspects of the Parks/USP proposed plan,
ranging from the impact on the North Plaza, which has a formidable history , as the scene of the first labor parade in 1882 through the series of historic public
protests and May Day events right up to present days, as described by Jack Taylor. The legalities or lack thereof of the privatization of the public
Park facilities, the inability of concerned citizens to provide input to the design, and the consequent waste of funds ($1.5M in architect fees for
plans that were not accepted) were taken up by Ross Horowitz and Ernest Raab, a main thrust of the meeting, The funds involved consist of the anonymous donation of $5M for the improvements, and the City Council’s $1.9M for the playground, arranged by ex-CM Margarita Lopez years ago. The Alternate Plan was addressed by Marlene Payton. Geoffrey Croft of the NYC Park Advocates also discussed the national tendency to cut park budgets and governmental advocacy of private funding for these public facilities, declared as such by the law of the land.

Former Councilperson Carol Greitzer, whose parks advocacy reaches back to 1962, reminded the audience that the present restaurant was approved as an
interim seasonal measure to help fight the drug and crime scene in the Park. Assemblymember Sylvia Friedman whose 74th AD encompasses Union Square,
brought out the Alienation feature of NYS code, whereby any diversion of public land for private use must be approved by an act of the Legislature.
The latter traditionally honors the recommendation of the representative involved, in this case Ms. Friedman, a USCC stalwart, although utilizing the code may involve suing the city and the Parks Department.

This was supported by Assemblymember Dick Gottfried of the 75th AD north of us, who indicated that both he and AM Deborah Glick (AD 66,
Greenwich Village) would object to the diversion. He also noted the lack of transparency in developing the designs, the designers ignoring a request by CB5 for a draft Request For Proposal that incorporates constituents’ ideas. In the subsequent public discussions much was made of the protest
over the controversial proposed restaurant on public property holding up the universally agreed-upon playground project, although the pit vs. park
level structuring is the essential problem. No Parks speakers came forth.


It may well be that the next step in the approval process, a review by the Art Commission of the City, may break the impasse. The AC has already ruled
the proposed balconies expanding the restaurant and the trees along the north side of the Pavilion as unacceptable. and Barry Benepe’s
Alternative Proposal will be also presented at the yet-to-be scheduled event.

The park concessions will be taken up in public hearings scheduled by the City Council this fall. The subjects include the restaurant plans for Union Square and Stuyvesant Square, and will cover the risks of privatization of parks and the methods of distribution of profits from the concessions. The advocates for the hearings have been Alan Gerson, CD1downtown and Dan Garodnick, CD4, ST/PCV (Rosie Mendez, CD2, Union Square, now supports the Parks plans) It is reported that legislation will be drafted, aiming to provide transparency and to give the CC oversight over Parks’ awarding of concessions and administration of conservancies, the public/private partnerships for fundraising and administration of certain parks.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

 

Take nothing for granted, plan to vote on Primary Day, Tuesday September 7

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

The Democratic Primary on Tuesday, September 7, 2006, where registered Democrats will choose their candidates for national and state offices, may be taking interesting twists, chiefly as the result of Sen. Joseph Lieberman’s loss of the electorate’s nod for a fourth term in representing Connecticut. The “kiss of death” he received from President Bush had to be the clincher in his defeat by the well-heeled anti-war candidate Ned Lamont. Now, NY Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is also facing a “bring the troops home now” opponent, labor activist Jonathan Tasini, whose treasury, when last counted was at $132K level (Clinton has $33M) . Although his program is equally thin and futuristic, and the campaign run largely on Internet, he has persuaded at least one local club, the Tilden Democrats, to withhold endorsing any senatorial candidate.

To explain, we are part of the 74th Assembly District, which covers a large portion of the East Side from Delancey Street in the Lower East Side up to East 48th Street. There are four Democratic clubs in the district – the Samuel J. Tilden Democratic Club, Gramercy –Stuyvesant Independent Democrats, the Eleanor Roosevelt Democratic Club to the north, and CODA (Coalition for a District Alternative) south of 14th Street. Candidates come to the clubs to declare themselves and seek endorsements (by membership vote), which assure them of a volunteer petition-signature gathering force.

For a close-up of Tasini, he is a writer , political consultant and former president of the National Writers’ Union (a Teamsters’ local), and also president and treasurer of the Creators Federation, a group that seeks to protect the creators—actors, screenwriters, songwriters, musicians, book authors, freelance journalists, photographers, illustrators, visual artists and fine artists—whose remuneration is declining, benefits are evaporating and rights are being taken away by large media companies.

Tasini’s political program ‘s main points, besides “bringing the troops home now,” encompass Control of Corporations, who have “set the rules for too long —and they’ve been helped by politicians, in both major political parties, who do their work because of a corrupt electoral system.” His Medicare For All declares that “it’s the most efficient health care coverage program we’ve ever had—better managed than any private insurance company, let’s give it to every man, woman and child, today.” Real Trade, Not Corporate Trade means to stop giving away our country to large corporations and dictatorships like China. (“:we’re for trading with other countries—but let’s set the rules up to help people, not corporations.”); Democracy at Work declares that every person should have the real right to join a union; “our democratic values, going all the way back to the American Revolution, tell us that workers must be free from harassment, intimidation and fear.” Pensions for All means that we should and can live out our retirement years with dignity and security; “we have a new system called Universal Voluntary Accounts to supplement the current system, which is under increased attack from large corporations.” Make It All Cost Less declares that “we want to make your paycheck last a lot longer by eliminating waste in the economy, adopting a real health care plan, pursing a real energy program, doing some better planning about where we live and how we get around, and creating a national wireless Internet network. “ As for Immigration Policy, the bi-partisan Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act of 2005 “comes the closest to adhering to our campaign’s two core principles because it brings families together, charts a clear path to citizenship, creates legal avenues for immigrants to work in our country, establishes logical enforcement policies and, most important, embraces the idea that immigrants should participate fully in society.“ Wow!

On the NY State Governor level, AG Eliot Spitzer’s challenger Thomas R. Suozzi has not made much of an impression on the neighborhood The Republican challenger of the party’s Gubernatorial candidate John D. Spencer, former Mayor of Yonkers, Kathleen Troia “KT” McFarland, has received a surprising 37% support of the Republican Convention, assuring her a place on the Republican Primary ballot. In the Attorney General primary, Andrew M. Cuomo is the party’s choice, with Mark Green, Charles G. King and Sean Patrick Maloney contesting (the latter is an Internet campaigner, watch the results).

Now for the big local event, the 74th District Assembly race, pitting the winner of the special February election following Steve Saunders’s resignation, Sylvia Feldman, against a challenger, attorney Brian Kavanagh, 39, former chief of staff of Upper West Side Councilmember Gale Brewer. Kavanagh has been endorsed by the Tilden contrarians, some unions, and, as of recent date, the New York Times and former Assemblyman and ST/PCV resident Steve Sanders, also receiving the highest rating from the Citizens Union and the nod from the Stonewall Democratic Club of New York City, a key gay political organization. Friedman, a local leader since the 1970s, has the endorsements of the other local clubs and key elected officials, including Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney, State Senator Tom Duane (who will have a ST/PCV opponent , Dan Russo, in the November election) and Liz Krueger, Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver , Councilmember Rosie Mendez and a number of unions. There is also a political newcomer Esther Yang of Tudor City, a yoga teacher and single mother, who wants to reform Albany.

Wally greatly appresiates the input from Democratic club sources, Internet web logs and sites, and the Paper of Record

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

 

New Yorkers are the most courteous people in the world

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis


If you are shocked that you never noted this before, neither did the New York Times, nor the Post. This information comes from the Readers Digest people, who, getting tired of the badmouthing our fellow citizens have been subjected to, sent out 36 reporters in 35 major cities worldwide, sampling whether people would hold doors open for others, help passersby in picking up dropped papers, and thank buyers for purchases. New Yorkers won, hands down, The story, when reported by the Associated Press, was widely discussed, surprising even the RD editors, who had placed it well back in the magazine.

The findings came as no surprise to this East Midtowner, who has observed his fellow citizens in acts of courtesy every day, starting with the morning elevator riders, who, preoccupied with the worries of the day, nevertheless exchange nods and casual words, nine times out of ten. The percentage drops to 60% upon arrival at work, in the office elevators.

At the Union Square Lexington Avenue subway station, where the same turnstiles are used for entry and exit, the passenger flow is seamless in both directions, as people wordlessly make room for each other, without a clash. That is also noticeable in the passageways when the streams of rush hour travelers switch back and forth between the IRT, BMT and LL lines.

Pushing one’s way into a crowded subway car is another challenge, easily accomplished with a liberal use of excuse mes and thank-yous, sometimes accompanied with a remark about one’s boss being a tyrant. Surprisingly, a number of young people, and some not so young, will offer their seats to the elderly or infirm. As to the sprawlers who spread out over two seats, there are very few, sitting upright and looking challenging, or sometimes sleeping, maybe pretending to sleep.

Subway conductors and bus drivers have thankless jobs. They respond to your hellos and thank-yous, and sometimes will actually hold the door open a trifle longer for you. Policemen like to be greeted, and an observation about a nice day is appropriate. Women are reluctant to exchange casual pleasantries, but a smile works just as well. More smiling is good for the giver and the receiver.

Now back to the real survey, the Readers Digest report. To obtain some uniformity in this non-scientific research, the New York tests were performed in various Starbucks coffee shops. One might think that the trained baristas would give us an unfair advantage, but my guess is that Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s checkout clerks are as good if not better at the thank-yous than the coffee servers’ 95% score shows. This is true throughout the high-visibility stores. As for holding doors open, 90% of us passed the test, and 55% aced the document drop. Men scored 63% on the latter, vs. 47% among the women, understandably, what with worries about being embarrassed by tight skirts and low-slung jeans. The reporters encountered men and women of all races, ages, professions and income levels, with no remarkable differences in the level of courtesy, except that men were more prone to help women in holding doors open and picking up papers.

On the global scale, ranging downwards from New York’s 80%, were Zurich (77%) and Toronto (70%). In the high 60% ranks were, in order, Berlin, Sao Paolo, Zagreb, Auckland, Warsaw, Mexico City, with Stockholm, Budapest, Madrid, Prague and Vienna following. Below them, at 57%, London, Paris, Lisbon, Johannesburg and Buenos Aires were clutched together, with Amsterdam slightly below. In the 40% came in Helsinki, Manila, Milan and Sydney, then Bangkok, Hong Kong, Jakarta, and Taipei, with Moscow, Singapore and Seoul dragging bottom. Finally, in the 30s,Bucharest, Kuala Lumpur and Mumbai. Former colonies and the ex-Communist countries seem to be still weak in showing regard for fellow human beings.

Of the former colonizers, at least England is taking the findings semi-seriously, BBC News has gone into their own research and find that their Geordies, the people of the coal-mining district of Newcastle, score 77%, with the Scousers of Liverpool close behind. Londoners check in at 55%, while the Scots of Edinburgh and, particularly, the Brummers of Birmingham pull the numbers down, at 48 and 43%

What do we learn from all this? Reader Digest says that if you can make it with a smile and a thank-you here, you can make it anywhere. Maybe that is what makes New Yorkers great, all of the above plus a larger preponderance of liberal brains.

Lost in the discussion about courtesy is the banner article in the same issue of Readers Digest, 10 New Ways to Lose Weight Now, the summer weight-loss special by Paula Dranoff, long-time health writer and editor, and a neighbor. Nice going, Polly!

This column thanks the editors and writers of Readers Digest.. Feel free to comment, at wally@ix.netcom.com.

Saturday, August 12, 2006

 

You and me and ConEd, let’s all get serious about electric outages

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis



It cannot be argued that Con Edison is not responsive to calls for service. Just a fortnight ago, in the middle of their problem of
reelectrifying Queens, I called the Chairman's Office to tell them that their Tower clock on 14th Street had been non-functional for weeks, and to suggest that the
Queens situation plus the broken timepiece might make people think that Thomas Alva Edison's old company is losing control. They shuffled me to
Public Affairs, where an overwrought lady grumbled that they have a crisis on hand, but, voila, two days later the clock was back on.

Actually the call was to try to get a coherent story of what caused the Queens delay, in the hope of catching Eugene R. McGrath,
long-term Chairman of the Board, whom we also know as the affable spearhead of the old 14 Street /Union Square BID. But he and Kevin Burke the new CEO were otherwise occupied, as were all the PR underlings, and I never got the promised callback.

Meanwhile in Thursday, August 3, at the hot point of a three-day 100 –degree spell, a somewhat incoherent message from the NYC Dept. of Small Business Services, e-mailed by CB5, got me heated up enough to leave the office, pack our family and head north. It was to all BIDs and LDCs, to get a ConEdison message to all business owners, (requesting that) customers of ConEd in East Midtown disconnect al nonessential appliances and equipment until problems on electrical equipment can be resolved. It was repeated, for all residential and business customers between 40th and 14th Streets, to shut off any unused or unnecessary appliances. Con Edison was asking their largest customers in the area to reduce their electrical use.

Duane Reid and others along 3rd Avenue did close their doors, and lobbies turned off the lights, bless ‘em. Fortunately, NYC squeaked through, but the dangers are still there. We all know that the root causes are antiquated delivery systems, both long-distance and those in the suburbs (Manhattan is more up to date) and the neglect of the public’s needs on part of utility companies, unwilling to make large expenditures that would lowed stock prices and executive’s bonuses. This will go on, despite ConEd’s planning to spend $5.3B on upgrades over 3 years, with $1.2B on tap in 2006, exceeding the $1B in 2005, and well over the $483M in 2000. This is a long-term process, and there will be falloff and rising prices and all the customary crap. Real modernization and the change to use of renewable resources and improved use of non-renewable resources and reduction of coal-driven mercury in the air are even further away, with the Washington oilistas in denial of the evils of global warming and greenhouse gasses and the meltdown of the glaciers. That leaves it up to the American genius of improvisation and quick solutions. But the woods are not full of alternatives.

Efficient use of electricity is a first line of defense. Efficient buildings and air-conditioners can slash the loads that overheat Con Ed’s cables. Building plants nearby will cut loss in transfer of electricity. Sensors on the grid will pinpoint faulty cable segments and concentrate repairs to where they are needed most. This foofah of relying on consumer call-ins is baloney. I called in an outage in upstate NY and found that NYSE&G already knew the location of the downed cable, the count of households affected (973): they promised to fix it in 3 hours, and kept their promise.Demand response programs, available in NYS and most other states, offer financial rewards to large energy consumers for curtailing usage in peak periods. Thus, it is claimed that Macy’s Sherwood Hotels and NYU Medical Center have contributed electrical power worth usage in 100,000 homes, helping prevent a citywide blackout. This can be made part of national policy. The politicians’ answers are more towards pressing for the upgrades, for controls by Public Service Commission (who deregulated the public utilities in 1997, with subsequent loss of reliability of power service in NYC), for an independent audit of the Queens fiasco, and a rapid response system; also penalties (not pass-along).

All this is good and fine, but the most important thing for us people is to truly let it sink in that saving electricity will help each of us, individually. As individuals each of us is rich enough to waste, as Dick Cheney has proudly stated; but as members of a nation or planet, or as citizens of this country and this city we are not rich enough to afford it.SABINA, I KIND OF LIKE THAT SENTENCE, YOU MIGHT WANT TO CONSIDER HIGHLIGHTING IT OR PUTTING IT ON THE COVER But a general call not to waste energy is too non-specific, we need to know what direct steps each of us can take. Therefore I will quote form the down to earth advice from a local building’s super: to keep air conditioning on only in the rooms that you actually use, not to wash dishes or do laundry until late at night; to think before turning on all the lights on the panel: to hibernate or shut off computers even if it costs nothing to keep them on all night; and to remember that you are doing this for yourself, not for the system.

Wally Dobelis thanks the NYTimes, Assembly members Catherine Nolan and Michael N. Gianaris, Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Anjan Bose of Washington State U, Mike Gordon of Consumer Powerline, Internet resources and the unidentified super outside Mumbles.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

 

Tales From the Booksellers Row Part IV - James Joyce

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

The best hunting grounds for book "sleepers" in the 50s was New York City, without doubt. The bookdealers of New York were an interesting bunch of enterpreneurs. Take, for instance, Johnny O'Connor, who rented basements all along Irving Place to store his series of scientific and literary periodicals. I met John in 1959, when he had a loft in the garret of the Broadway Central Hotel, a place so far out of sight and mind that I cannot remember where it was. It had a huge rat-beset lower level to hold the carriages that brought in the guests, and in the Summer when you went to the upper floor and entered the under the roof storage area, you had to remove your clothes or die. Of course, you could step through the dormer window on the roof and enjoy a sunbath, far above downtown Manhattan.

Johnny sold me a 4th printing of the 1st edition of James Joce's Ulysses, printed in Paris by Sylvia Beach's Shakespeare and Company, Nov. 1924, a book so frail tht every time it is touched a cloud of paper dust flies off it. It had lived in that garret, which no doubt added to its fragility. I have lost track of Johnny, an Aussie who played a mean game of tennis on his New Jersey home courts.

I used to call Johnny when a big run of Philosophy or the Polish Academy of Science papers became available at the Strand Book Store, on Broadway and 12th.. It was sad when the Strand became the only game in town for bookscouts. Just a few years earlier there had been Weiser's, on Broadway between 13and 14th Sts, and across from it, Milt Applebaum's Arcadia Bookshop, another late stayout place. I once bought from Milt a small portfolio of the publications of Die Bruecke, German Expressionist group (1905-1913), led by Ernst Kuerchner. Alas, the lithographs had been removed.

But Strand was still a source. In the '60s I found a copy of Robert Duncan's Heavenly City Earthy City with a long poem copied into the endpapers by the poet. It went to a West Coast dealer within the year, at what we jokingly called a 100% markup: from $5 t0 $500. But that was my best gain in all these years. Book scouting is a sport, not a trade.

Across from Strand was Larry's Sylvan Books, a deep store, where the restaurant/antique business now is. It is amazing how low the rents must have been in the early 1960s. Tall Larry, who always stood and read books, and spoke in the softest high voice, never had more than two customers simultaneously. His books were casually shelved, and he never swept the store. Nevertheless this is the place where I found a copy of Vasar Verse (date tc), containing the first appaearance of Renascence by Edna St. Vincent Millay.

Also across from the Strand there is the University Place Book Shop, run by William P. French, eminent bibliographer of Afro-American poetry and drama (main book pub. by Gale, Detroit, 1979; also others). Founded by Walter Goldwater in the 1940s, University had, beesides the Black literature of all continents, scads of high level scholarly material, including a high shelf of incunabula (books printed before 1500 A.D.) Walter "kept an avuncular eye over the holdings of the Widener Library at Harward," as I recall a trade pub stating in th 1970s. That must have been difficult, as I can attest, having been lost in the 5th underground level, and nearly scared to death when someone activated the aisle compressor machine on me. It is safe but frightening. (To explain - to save space, book racks are placed together. If you want to get inside, you activate a motor that moves what looks like a fifty foot row of shelves apart, to make an aisle where you want to be. It is an archival practice for low-traffic areas. God, do I love Widener! I want to be a student, again and forever!) Walter was the husband of Eleanor Lowenstein of the Corner Book Shop. She was the seminal cookery book specialist in the US, since 1940. She was a wonderful lady, but she kept her store door locked all day.

Coming back to Strand, once upon a time, in the 1960s, the employees of that store were publishing a lit 'zine, "Stranded." I make the distinction that a 'zine is an ephemeral mimeo or xerox product of typed material, a rare and precious thing, sometimes, vs. a professionally produced periodical or journal. The Strandians are so hip, it is surprising that the 'zine has not been rejuvenated.

Way up North from the Strand, on Fifth Ave, was Dauber and Pine, a rare book shop run by Charles P. Everett, up until the 1950s. I never met Charlie, but he was the source for my enthusiasm for books. He wrote the Adventures of a Bookman (NY 1951 verify), a cheerful and inspiring autobiography, chockful of collecing data. When I passed the windows of Dauber and Pine for the first time, in 1949, they had a Chagall painting there, unattributed, priced for under $1,000. I was shellshocked - but I was earning $32.50 a week, and there was no way that I could buy the Chagall. In retrospect, I now wonder - did the prim, tiny Mr. Pine know something that I did not? Did he suspect the signature? In the subsequent years I eventually raised the courage to ask the question; but Mr. pine denied any memory of that event. Charlie Everett died in 1951, at 78, and Mr. Pine was active for one decade or two thereafter, them Maurice Dauber became the mover of the store.

D&P had wonderful stock - I bought Americana and New Yorkiana at low cost. They had, once, a Bible that was set up to be a coffee table, it was so huge. Whether that was sacrilegious I will not pass on; it disquieted me.



Wally Dobelis thanks, once again, Marvin Mondlin of the Strand for information. Marvin is writing the definitive history of the 4th Ave book trade, a long-term project.

Saturday, August 05, 2006

 

Unorthodox diplomacy can turn the war in Lebanon

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

Ah, for the easy dog days of June when the only new threat that the world had to worry about were the few much publicized rockets of North Korea (which sizzled out on July 5th). Then, on June 25, came the Hamas incursion from Gaza into Israel, seizing a Israeli Defense Force soldier and killing two, and, on July 12, another by Hezbollah from Lebanon. Now we have a serious war that Israel is leading against its Hezbollah provocateurs, and the bloodshed, mostly of innocents, has the world in a state of shock. Where is it leading to, and how can the world stop the spreading conflagration?

Well, the pundits agree that the Gaza attack on an Israeli border station by Palestinians, reached by an underground tunnel and ordained by the top Hamas leaders hiding in Syria, was to stir up the world’s opinion when Israel would take the expected disproportionate bloody countermeasures.

The Hezbollah attack on an Israeli border post on the Lebanese frontier, killing eight and capturing two IDF soldiers, is known to have been hatched in Iran, to take the world’s mind off the Ayatollahs’ insistence on developing nuclear facilities leading to weaponization. Unlike the Palestinian Hamas, Hezbollah is a Lebanese/Syrian organization, founded with Iranian funds and leadership in 1982, to counter the IDF entry in Lebanon when a similar series of attacks by the PLO then residing in South Lebanon provoked the Israeli occupation (the original 100,000 refugees were bumped to a force of 300,000 when Jordanians threw out their PLO colony after an attack on King Hussein’s life in 1970.)

Lebanon, a 60/40 Muslim/Christian country, had gradually been occupied by Syrians since early 1970s (in 1978 Syria bombed East Damascus, sending 300,000 Maronite Christians in flight). Lebanon had been in an internal war since 1981, until about 1996. The Israelis voluntarily withdrew in 2000, and the Syrians were forced out in 2005. It had to do with the murder of PM Rafiq Hariri of Lebanon in February 2005, and the world’s reaction to Syrian dominance and outright occupation of the country. The UN Security Council had taken umbrage earlier, in February 2004 producing Resolution 1559, demanding the withdrawal of militia, meaning Syria and its Hzbollah allies.

The new, democratically elected Lebanese government of 2005, with elected Hezbollah representatives, was unable to control the terrorist organization, whose attack induced the Israelis to retaliate, attempting to retrieve the two captured IDF members and to scotch the terrorist nests and their rocket attacks on Israeli border villages and Haifa. The Israeli air attacks, although pinpointed to seeking the terrorist Katusha nests hidden within the population centers, have caused massive civilian deaths, and huge flows of refugees are causing a world reaction, with Russia, an Iranian ally, leading the world opinion against the unnecessary bloodshed. Ironic, coming from the brutalizers of Chechnya?

Will Israel desist? Not likely, the government of non-military politicians is proving its mettle, in a part of the world where compromise is considered a
proof of weakness. Well, Ehud Olmert may agree to a force of EU peacekeepers (not under UN command), guaranteeing a cessation of rockets’ fire, the optimal temporizing solution. This may be a regrouping solution for the Hezbollah, the alternatives are just too dreadful even for the Arabs and Iranians – for instance, any military move that Syria should make towards Beirut and against Israel will provoke a massive air strike against the exposed, technologically weak Syrian army, destroying it. Further, if Iran makes an overt move, there should be concern of a possibly nuclear thrust against Teheran’s research facilities from Israel, with the US potentially driven into support of its MidEastern ally. A true specter of the world at war, enough of a real threat to keep Syria and Iran safely behind their borders, talking loud while letting their proxies slug it out. They understand that Israel is fighting for its life, and will have to respect the potential consequences.
.
Syria has a more immediate threat also in the fact that the Assad family rule is a tribal dictatorship, based on the minority Alawites, initially a secular rule (daddy Hafez Assad blew up 10,000 Muslim Brotherhood revolutionaries at Hama in 1970 and scotched the fundamentalist opposition), and a military collapse may bring on popular revolt of its suppressed majority (75%) Sunnis.

Encouraging was the anti-Hezbollah position of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, Sunni ruled dictatorships, who see a clear threat of the Ayatollahs’ Shia-driven revolutionaries gaining the Arab world’s leadership role. The Saudi oil fields are in a minority Shia territory. The North African members of the Arab League may also have been silently hoping that the threatening radicals will be given their comeuppance by the relentless Israeli forces fighting for the survival of the Jewish state. Two weeks later, seeing the Arab world erupting with pro-Hezbollah rhetoric, the Saudis and Jordanians have joined the condemnations of Israel and are rushing relief supplies to Lebanon. Even al-Qaida is grabbing a propaganda role, calling for supportive attacks on Jews, without naming their enemies the Shias, whom they are killing daily in Iraq. The US, asking for sustainable peace against terrorist provocateurs, while pleading for minimizing civilian casualties and a cease-fire with EU peacekeepers, is not succeeding, hardly anybody is signing up. The fate of the 241 US Marine and 58 French peacekeepers blown up in 1983 raises the strongest warning. Hopeless?

Actually, there is some hope, if the US gets off its stiff “don’t talk to Syria” position, and engages in some real, sorely needed secret behind-the –scenes diplomacy with Assad, not just publicly hectoring him. Let’s hope that our Arab allies are doing just that. Syria wants recognition and economic aid, and may play to its Sunni constituents who are harassed by the Hezbollah “wipe out the infidels” ideologues, at the cost of Syrian and Lebanese civilians (this “political party” attacked, without alerting their own Lebanese government to enable early evacuation, fully cognizant that the well-announced Israeli 100-for-1 retaliation will sacrifice masses of their fellow citizens.) President Bush’s edict of not talking directly to Iran, North Korea, Syria and Hamas has not worked in our favor; the rise in oil prices and markets realignment has cost us leverage with Russia and China as well as Iran; a preemptive air strike against Iran has a palpable risk of causing revolts and the collapse of friendly teetering Mideast governments (think nuclear Pakistan), and freeze us out of their oil markets. The al-Qaidas of the world stand ready to step in and reduce this consumer nation to a second-class power.

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