Looking Ahead

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

Who’s behind the new Bush policy of negotiations?

The radical post-2006 election changes in the Bush policy – a drift toward negotiations with North Korea, Iran, Syria and the Palestinians, de-emphasis of tax cuts, Medicare reform and other Conservative issues - open the question of new influences in Washington that may have shunted aside the hawk/hardliner/conservative cabal, reduced to Vice President Dick Cheney and Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rowe, as neocons and hawks leave their government posts. Speculations about the departure of Under Secretary of State Robert G. Joseph, whom some CIA sources consider the spearhead of the notorious “16 words” in the Presidents 2003 State of the Union message, have sharpened the debate. Can it be that Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and her department are the main sources of this policy? Are her players neocon-based, hawks, “realists,” or ex-hawk “semi-realists”? (This in the terminology of the Right Web, by International Relations Center (IRC), a Bush watchers’ think tank.)

Let’s examine the structure of the DOS, headed by the Secretary and her Deputy SOS John Negroponte, a Bush faithful (successor to realist Robert Zoellick 2005-06 and near-realist Richard Armitage 2001-05), with six Under Secretaries and a Counselor, running a structure based on 22 Assistant Secretaries. The Under Secretaries –most not noted for public talk – are R. Nicholas Burns for Political Affairs, Joelle Sheehan for Economics, John Rood (successor to Joseph) for Arms Control and International Security, Karen Hughes for Public Diplomacy (a sometime Bush emissary), Henrietta Fore for Management, Paula Dobransky for Global Affairs. The recently appointed watchdog Counselor Eliot Cohen is a neocon theorist (he replaced the realist Philip Zelikow). Evidently the sources of the new realist policy cannot be solely in the DOS.

Looking at the recent changes in government, the pundits point to the old George H. W. Bush crowd, as the source of the new realist policy, within which the former National Security Advisor, Gen. Brent Showcroft, has been a consistent cautioner. The group took force with the appointment of former SOS James Baker on the Iraq Study Group, replacement of Secretary of Defense Douglas Rumsfeld by Robert Gates, of the director of national intelligence Negroponte by Admiral John McConnell, and of CIA’s Porter Goss by Gen. Michael Hayden. Secretary Rice herself was part of that group, and appears to take a semi-realist position, of working with the regional powers in pacifying the crisis situations, notably Jordan and the Saudis, who have taken the lead positions in the Middle East.

Evidently President Bush’s change of direction has come from the above group as well as from the results of the complete turnover of the balance of power in the US Congress. Several departures of hawks and neocons actually preceded the balance changes, with Secretary of Defense Rumsfelds deputies, the disciples of Leo Strauss and Albert Wohlstetter, leaving early: Paul Wolfowitz shifting to presidency of the World Bank in 2005, Stephen A. Cambone, and Douglas J. Feith to consulting, I. Lewis Libby resigning from his Chief of Staff to VP Cheney position, and John Bolton from his ambassadorship to the United Nations.

Robert G. Joseph, the most recent departure, was typically influential, as a director on the National Security Council for most of his career since the 2000 election. Born in 1949, Williston ND, in a American-Arab family, he attended the Naval Academy, St. Louis University, University of Chicago, capping his education with a Ph.D. from Columbia in 1978, and immediately moving into the Department of Defense, as negotiator, nuclear policy expert and NATO liaison, concurrently teaching at the National Defense University and National War College. . After 1989 he taught at Carleton, Tulane and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts. As Policy Director of the National Institute for Public Policy, he has long argued counter proliferation strategies, favoring the use of strategic nuclear weapons. He left the NSC in 2005 to replace John Bolton as the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. He is deemed to have engineered the US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty, substituting in 2002 a weak arms reduction agreement. He was the architect of the Security Proliferation Initiative, favored by both the Republicans and Democrats, joining some 80 nations in identifying illicit arms shipments. It succeeded in catching Abdul Qaader Khan’s nuclear centrifuge shipments to Libya in 2003, in persuading that country to give up its nuclear ambitions, and in having Pakistan take actions to stop the Khan nuclear smuggling enterprises. Joseph allegedly quit because he could not abide the Bush administration’s agreement with the “criminal” North Korea government, reached in February 2007.

Have the neocons and hawks left? No, there are still hawks on the NSC, Elliott Abrams and J. D. Crouch. As to whether the hawks are still proud of the Bush 1st term strategy on ABM, walking away from the Kyoto Protocol on climate, and legitimizing preemptive strikes as a doctrine is not clear.

Wally Dobelis thanks the IRC, NYTimes and internet sources

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis


Why this homage to Woody Allen, not a neighbor and not-too-lovable a person? Well, he has been using our tree-rich and charming East 17th Street, between Park Ave South and 2nd Ave as the scene of some of his 49 movies for the last three decades, a nuisance for street-parkers but a source of some small civic pride. Although tour guides recognize only the Hotel 17 (225 East 17th) as a locale, dubbed Hotel Waldron for Manhattan Murder Mystery (1993), a number of Allen’s more anonymous shots over the years have utilized both exteriors and interiors, mostly across the street from the touristy hotel.

Annie Hall (1977) is Allen’s growing-up piece, an autobiography and recital of his relationship with Diane Keaton (real name Diane Hall), who won an Oscar for her performance, as did Allen for directing, Allen and Marshall Brickman for the script, and the movie itself. No longer just a comedy, as in the preceding movies dating from 1965, he presents a life story of attitudes to existence, the biography of a modern cool bon-vivant, frequently hurt, unable to make commitments, yet wanting to keep the relationships forever. A tennis pickup of actress Annie Hall ends with a breakup, which he justifies (“relationship is like a shark, it has to move forward or it dies; we have a dead shark”) but actually lasts forever (“it’s like when I complained to my analyst that my brother has turned into a chicken, and he said to turn him in, and I replied that we need the eggs.”). Trite but believable, the Allen-Alvy Singer character is charming and speaks the truth, attracts women and men like flypaper, never stops dealing philosophy (“the world is divided into horrible – those with incurable illnesses – and miserable –the rest of us; be happy that you are just miserable”) and quips. He has a16-yr history of seeing shrinks (“I’ll give him one more year, and then I’m going to Lourdes”), and two broken marriages, and has thought of suicide (“but I was in analysis with a strict Freudian, and if you kill yourself they make you pay for the sessions you missed”) , and she is just starting in theatre. He tries to stop her from using marijuana (“if you have to feel good to make love, I’ll get you sodium pentothal. Me? If I have grass or alcohol I get too wonderful for words, and I am wonderful enough”), destroys a friend’s supply of coke by sneezing (biggest laugh scene) and muddles through life by talking, talking , talking. Allen, in Annie Hall, has the longest dialogues in movie history, not unlike the Jean-Luc Godard’s Cinema Verite 1963 standout, Contempt, featuring Brigitte Bardot and Jack Palance. Allen’s style probably gave impetus to the Seinfeld series featuring similar louche metroplex characters who don’t cook, nor marry, nor have children, and who remain adolescents forever.

Alvy Singer has opinions of literature (“I’m sick of reading Dysentery – that’s Commentary and Dissent ”) and poets (“Sylvia Plath’s tragic suicide is interpreted as romantic by college girl mentality”), a college dropout’s take of schools (“everything our parents said was good for us is bad – sun, red meat, milk ..college”) , college teachers and courses (‘the jerk ho teaches you Contemporary Crisis in Western Men - or is it Existentialist Motifs In Russian Literature - next thing you know he will have his hand on your butt. I have been resentful of David ever since you mentioned his name? Ah, you call him David already: and does he call you Bathsheba?”). He is restless (“I can’t have a mellow evening, if I get mellow I ripen and rot”), a faith purist (“I can’t get with any religion that advertises in Popular Mechanics” ) and distrusts politicians (“LBJ is a politician, and their ethics are a notch underneath child molesters”) but he does not dwell on it.

The follow-up movie, Manhattan (1979, same writers), continues on the same themes, more intensely. The Allen character, Isaac, has a 17-year old high school student girlfriend Tracy (Mariel Hemingway), whom he encourages to seek new friends as he develops his new relationship (Diane Keaton), while ex-wife (Meryl Streep) writes a book about their life. Sort of forecast of future events? But the Keaton affair does not last, and Tracy will not come back.

Allen Stewart Konigsberg (b. 1935) started writing comedy for Sid Caesar and Ed Sullivan at 16, was a standup-comedian in 1960, wrote short stories for the New Yorker, and his first movie What’s New , Pussycat, in 1965. A year after that came his first play Don’t Drink the Water, three years later Play It Again, Sam, with comedy movies written acted and directed by Allen following uninterruptedly. Annie Hall was the landmark, a true personal chronicle, while the sequel movie, Manhattan, is more mechanical, with routine New York scenes and music interspersed. Hectic personal life notwithstanding, Woody Allen continues writing and directing. Match Point (2005) a tragicomedy with Scarlett Johanssen and a nihilistic message, is his most recent success.Congrats!

Correction: The Tilden Democratic Club’s Anniversary dinner is on April 26. My apologies.

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
A Nigerian born engineer friend, in the US since 1974 and currently semi-retired as a math tutor in Florida, visits Lagos annually, and claims that every household there is computerized, with internet access.. Not just those with school-age kids, adults too are accessing commercial sites, as well as non-commercial and government resources that make themselves available, and daily newspapers (we looked at some).
Can we make the same comparable claims about our New York neighbors? Well, yes. I can only think of four confirmed Luddite friends who refuse to use computers in their private lives. Otherwise, of the 18 neighbors surveyed 16 have home IT gear, and all have done or do work with complex commercial IT equipment. As to non-commercial and government services making themselves available on-line, the findings range.
Take government resources – all NYC legislators and administrators have web sites, government-provided, with e-mail and fax communications facilities, and staff to answer your inquiries and complaints. That means PR people and press relations experts and legislative assistants and chiefs of staff to supervise them, in profuse numbers, servicing all levels of legislators, City Council and up, as well as commissioners in charge of administrative departments. What an explosion in government costs and functions…


On the voluntary service level, let’s examine our political clubs, the citizens-in-action groups in the 74th Assembly District. Now, I’ve only looked at the internet briefly, and would appreciate your corrections, but of the four Democratic clubs only one appears to have a web site. This is a sad commentary, and there is a reason – the high cost of real estate has driven all of these low dues organizations out of rental rooms, and they are now relying on community-minded religious and social service organizations for donated monthly meeting space. No longer is there a clubhouse where you drop in to pass time and help fold and stuff envelopes, or make phone calls to voters, or answer their questions, or conduct housing clinics, or even keep files and maintain a web site.

Of the four 74th AD Democratic clubs, the Samuel J. Tilden Democratic Club, District Leaders Louise Dankberg and Steven J. Smollens, POBox 1500 NY 10159-1500, can be found as

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

William Richardson, Governor of New Mexico, has declared himself in the Democratic race for 2008, forming an exploratory committee. The first Hispanic candidate may be of considerable interest for the Democrats of the 74th AD, particularly the CODA club.

One wonders if he still has the lucky Brooks Brothers blue blazer that he would wear in what then Clinton aide George Stephanopoulos called his “Red Adair missions” to free American and Red Cross captives in North Korea, Sudan and Iraq. The jovial Richardson, whose first government job was with the State Department, would refer to himself as a sometime “Assistant Secretary for thugs,” as he crossed oceans to make friends for the US in Nicaragua, Guatemala, Cuba, Peru, India, North Korea, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and such, first as the Congressman from New Mexico (1982-96), and President Clinton’s emissary, then as Ambassador to the United Nations (1997-98) and Secretary of Energy (1999-2000), as well as the Governor of New Mexico (2002 to present) and back-door negotiator for Colin Powell, Condoleeza Rice, and, indirectly, for President George Bush.

He will need the coat when he announces his intent to run for the big job, the least heralded and best prepared of the not-Hillary candidates. He is one of the three serious firsts in the 2008 Democratic Presidential campaign, featuring the first woman, first African-American, and first Hispanic nominees. Despite his Back Bay name and Boston background, William Blaine Richardson is three-quarters Hispanic, son of a south-posted Boston banker and a Mexican mother, and grandson of a Bostonian naturalist and a Nicaraguan mother, He was brought up in Mexico City, until at 13 he entered a Boston high school, where he had high hopes as a baseball pitcher. Admitted to Tufts for a BA in (1970) and its Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy for an MA (1971), he took his first government job with State Department, transferring to the staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in 1978. Moving to Santa Fe, he ran for Congress in 1980, and was elected in 1982, staying for 14 years, representing US internationally as member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, and looking out for the rights of Native Americans and energy issues domestically. His trouble-shooting exposures earned him four Nobel Peace Prize nominations.

He took over a much troubled Energy Department as the Wen Ho Lee scandal broke (the subsequently exonerated foreign born scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory was accused of passing nuclear attack recovery secrets to the Chinese), and when in 2000 Richardson, claiming that another investigation was incomplete, that of two missing hard drives, did not respond a the Senate Armed Services Committee request to testify, the empty chair drew severe criticisms from both sides.

After January 2001, Richardson was invited to teach at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, also joining the Kissinger-McLarty Associates as a senior managing director, and teaching at a private school for foreign students.

He ran for Governor of New Mexico on November 2002, winning 56-39. Richardson’s early reforms pressed in many directions, succeeding with tax cuts to promote growth and industry, a commuter line between Albuquerque and its suburb, Bonalillo, and infrastructure improvements. He has high marks from such conservative groups as the CATO Institute, for economy, and Forbes Magazine, naming Albuquerque the best city in the US in 2006.

Visiting New Mexico in 2006, the writer was particularly interested in local opinions about Richardson and his political chances. The bus drivers and cabbies and policemen liked the Governor in general, but found him limited as a national candidate, an unexciting speaker, with high marks for being education-minded. That is how he has been coming across on TV and radio, simple, people-minded, message-oriented and repetitive, great assets in negotiating with the leaders of the world, less so with the short-memory public. But we may be surprised. Richardson’s recipe for negotiating success is also simple: make friends, define your goal, shrug off insults, close the deal, and always show respect. That presupposes traveling wherever and whenever required, never rubbing the backs of lady chancellors, not showing the soles of your shoes to Arab potentates (an insult) and cracking safe jokes only when the deal is done.

As to Richardson’s announced positions, he is pro-choice, pro death penalty, three-stroke legislation, education (formerly pro-voucher, now for non-voucher alternatives, such as charter schools, also favoring parental responsibility legislation), energy alternatives, concerned about war on Iran, pro-gun and NAFTA.

Richardson has remarkably little political baggage, except that he did offer Monica Lewinsky a UN job, which she declined. Fault-finders see the folksy Governor, fast-acting trouble-shooter, as a hot-tempered, showboat, courting the media, sometimes light-weight, a cigar-smoking whiskey-drinking politician who may use intemperate language in private barroom conversations. He is a shrewd and skillful politician, a consensus-builder, recognized as such when chosen as chairman of the 2004 Democratic Convention, and as the leader of national and local Governors’ organizations.

Although in 2004 Richardson withdrew as a potential Kerry vice-presidential candidate, for 2008 may have to look at himself as “Vice President for the thugs.” God bless, we may all be better off for it.

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

How to begin? There is a complex thesis to expound that ties together the Chavez and Ahmadinejad proletarian revolutions, US history of oil politics, the Marxist analyses of the disasters of neoliberal economics (Tariq Ali) and US history, nay, world history, as a long chain of morality conflicts between the haves and have-nots, and the immorality of both US major parties, particularly in the conduct of wars (Howard Zinn), the neocon thesis of bringing democracy to the Middle East , with disastrous results; and, to confuse those of you who have followed me this far, about the Kidric reform that saved Yugoslav Communism. Overarching all this is the ominous addition of two more warships to the US flotilla in the Persian Gulf, and the secret visit of VP Cheney to Pakistan, to talk to President Musharraf about attacking the Taliban, but, just possibly, also about the threat of a US action against Iran.

Why this, my tirade, to shock the peaceful people of Manhattan’s East Midtown? Well, we are the hosts of the UN, the most important resource for inhibiting the destruction of the world as we know it by all of the above players, and I’m proposing that it should behoove us to protect that piece of real estate against those of our neighbors who see it as waste of our, the taxpayers’ money. Park protectionists and CB6 to note.

Let’s start with Big Oil, the Marxists’ bugaboos. The US runs on oil, we are economically dead without it, unless we go nuclear, and that dangerous alternative will take decades to implement. President F. D. Roosevelt recognized the shrinking of local oil reserves, and our protection of the Gulf tyrants stems back to his policies. It is legitimate self-preservation, and the neocons’ ostensible quest for democracy in the Gulf, if successful, would lead to a popular vote and the electing of people who are overwhelmingly against the US. If we walk out of Iraq, it will split into three countries, and the Iran-backed Shiite hegemony will roll over Kuwait and the Saudi Shiite eastern oil province, and we will be in the worst economic position.

Shifting to Venezuela, another oil resource, with Hugo Chavez gaining popular support by spending confiscated oil millions on the proletariat – some in US and in Great Britain, bizarrely, subsidizing London bus fares for the poor, to offset increases due to oil prices. He models himself on the folk hero Simon Bolivar (born 1783, died of tuberculosis 1830), who by 1825 had kicked the Spanish rulers out of the upper tier of South America (Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and the country named after him – Brazil shed its Portuguese king in 1889), turning into a dictator in the process. Allied with Bolivia’s coca protector Evo Morales and Cuba’s Fidel Castro (Tariq Ali’s Axis of Hope), Chavez attacks the US , IMF and the World Bank’s neoliberal economic policies. The neolibs, you will remember, led by economists Frederic Hayek and Chicago’s Milton Friedman, advocated stable currency, free trade, free market, thereby fostering the evil multinational corporations. Opponents also include ex-World Bank economist Josef Stiglitz, Noam Chomsky, Ralph Nader and a number of conservative populist politicians (Pat Buchanan, Ross Perot) who see such treaties as NAFTA as sources of US loss of manufacturing facilities and jobs; true enough, when the US has to rely on China and Japan for technology products more complex than a toaster (we also note that the populist designation has come to cover both ends of the political spectrum.)

Anyway, the politicians of the left have been given to excessive rhetoric- Chavez’s “smell of sulphur” speech at the UN, Ahmadinejad’s threat to wipe out Israel - causing the US to think of radical countermeasures . Not a good move, guys. Further, Chavez’s policy of nationalization wiping out private ownership, which is also putting street sweepers who carry his guns in charge of large corporations will soon destroy Venezuela’s oil based economy, and his spending on political priorities abroad will anger the workers. This is the Kidric context - unbridled Stalinist Communism in 1945 Yugoslavia, leaving people barely in ownership of their toothbrushes, caused such an uproar in the seven provinces, that wise local politicians - Boris Kidric, Edward Kardelj and Milovan Djilas led Josif Broz Tito in 1948 to the path of reform, installing a worker-owned industrial environment, condemned by Joseph Stalin as national Communism. But the workers prevailed, approving of product-based compensation, and the system prevailed, until the collapse of the Evil Empire and the rise of nationalism in that world. Something for the axis of anti- neoliberalism to consider, besides the fact that they may be creating narco-nations that destroy not only the nasty capitalists but also their own working class.