Thursday, February 28, 2008
New York faces shifts in primary results
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
Let’s start with the guardedly good news, which are mostly on the international scene. In Iraq, the radical anti-US Shiite cleric Muquada al Sadr has decided to expand the cease-fire to be observed by his powerful militia, the Mahdi Army, by another six months. Along with the emergence of Sunni-dominated groups fighting the al Quaeda terrorists, that should save American lives and speed the return of our troops.
In Kenya, there may be hopes of a political settlement of a contested election between President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga, whose people have grievances over land and poverty. It has caused murderous racially oriented violence, with over 1,000 people losing their lives. The settlement will involve sharing of power, with a prime minister’s post going to the Kikuyu opposition leader.
Further good news is that while the Pakistan popular election removed our ally Musharraf from power, it also defeated the Muslim extremist parties. In the North West Frontier Province (shades of Kipling!) in 2002 the fundamentalist parties won 12% of vote. They then formed a local government, became a part of the neighboring Baluchistan’s coalition rule, and had 57 seats in the 342-member national parliament.
Now, in 2008, they only won five seats nationally, nine in the NWFP 96-member provincial government, vs. 67 in 2002. The NWFP turned to the Pakistan Peoples Party (the late Benazir Bhutto’s group) and to the local Awami National Party. The people have had it with the murderous Taliban supporter groups. In Jhang, the heart of Punjab, a member of Musharraf’s Pakistani Muslim League –Q party soundly defeated an accused Taliban sympathizer cleric.
The national results were similarly anti-Terrorist, with PPP led by Ali Zardari, Bhutto’s husband, and its breakaway branch, former PM Nawez Sharif’s PML-N holding a plurality in the parliament (Musharraf's PML- Q ended with about 10%), may benefit the US, if we work with the leaders instead of pushing them.
The resignation of Cuba’s President Fidel Castro also gives the US a chance to normalize relations and consider lifting the embargo, the tool that has served Castro in justifying his regime’s controls and abuses. Fidel’s brother Raul, caretaker for 19 months and now President, has slowly begun some reforms that lead towards our objectives of human rights (free press, political parties, ceasing the terrorization of population) as well as of economics, the lopsided system that has kept average pay at under $20 month, meanwhile neglecting agriculture and shrinking the housing, clothing, transportation and communications hopes of the people. Raul is expected to start permitting limited capitalist practices of small busineses, self-employment, limited buying and selling of houses, and foreign travel, particularly for athletes. The capricious ideologue non-manager Fidel built up education, with 800, 00 professionals, including 85,000 physicians earning ridiculously low pay, serving a population of 11 million under inadequate conditions. The Democratic candidates are willing to negotiate - the practical Hillary, with a provision of proof that some human rights reforms have taken place, while the more visionary Obama will accept well- established plans.
This brings us back to US matters, particularly the primaries, where Obama has substantially overcome Clinton’s lead, with victories in 11 post-Super Tuesday state races. February 5th seems such a long time ago, and it might be worth while to review Hillary’s New York victory, that, along with the Massachusetts rout, gave such a hope to her camp. New York State had the largest turnout in 20 years, over a third of registered Democrats (also 20% of Republicans) voting, comparable to the eerily parallel of primaries of 1988, when Michael Dukakis scored 51% against Jesse Jackson’s 37 and Al Gore’s 10. That brings up the weird suggestion in The Telegraph of Britain that Al Gore might emerge as the compromise candidate. This is a most improbable scenario that, one imagines, would require some substantial rock-bottom Democratic Party fear that the high-flying Obama, carried by a wave of leftwing/Denial-like enthusiasms, would lose against the stolid McCain; an emergence of Gore from the shadows, and a resignation of Clinton, throwing her elected delegates to Gore and persuading the super-delegates to do likewise. Ugh!
Coming back to reality, here are the numbers underlying Clinton’s New York victory. The state voted 57% for her, with New York City coming in at 55%. Obama won in only one county, Tompkins, in the Finger Lakes, home of Cornell University and Ithaca College. The city boroughs voted Clinton/Obama as follows: Bronx 60/38 (much Latin vote), Brooklyn 50/48, Manhattan 54/44 (heavily Obama on the West Side), Queens 60/38, and Staten Island 61/36%. Overall, Clinton came out with 139 NYS delegates, Obama with 93.
As to the final numbers, using CNN figures, as of February 19 Obama has 1,327 and Clinton has 1255 delegates. Of the approximately 915 remaining delegates to be elected (the total remaining is 1190, discounted by my estimate of 275 super-delegates), Obama would have to win some 85% to have a victory without the appointed delegates' help. We'll wait ‘till August for finite results.
Let’s start with the guardedly good news, which are mostly on the international scene. In Iraq, the radical anti-US Shiite cleric Muquada al Sadr has decided to expand the cease-fire to be observed by his powerful militia, the Mahdi Army, by another six months. Along with the emergence of Sunni-dominated groups fighting the al Quaeda terrorists, that should save American lives and speed the return of our troops.
In Kenya, there may be hopes of a political settlement of a contested election between President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga, whose people have grievances over land and poverty. It has caused murderous racially oriented violence, with over 1,000 people losing their lives. The settlement will involve sharing of power, with a prime minister’s post going to the Kikuyu opposition leader.
Further good news is that while the Pakistan popular election removed our ally Musharraf from power, it also defeated the Muslim extremist parties. In the North West Frontier Province (shades of Kipling!) in 2002 the fundamentalist parties won 12% of vote. They then formed a local government, became a part of the neighboring Baluchistan’s coalition rule, and had 57 seats in the 342-member national parliament.
Now, in 2008, they only won five seats nationally, nine in the NWFP 96-member provincial government, vs. 67 in 2002. The NWFP turned to the Pakistan Peoples Party (the late Benazir Bhutto’s group) and to the local Awami National Party. The people have had it with the murderous Taliban supporter groups. In Jhang, the heart of Punjab, a member of Musharraf’s Pakistani Muslim League –Q party soundly defeated an accused Taliban sympathizer cleric.
The national results were similarly anti-Terrorist, with PPP led by Ali Zardari, Bhutto’s husband, and its breakaway branch, former PM Nawez Sharif’s PML-N holding a plurality in the parliament (Musharraf's PML- Q ended with about 10%), may benefit the US, if we work with the leaders instead of pushing them.
The resignation of Cuba’s President Fidel Castro also gives the US a chance to normalize relations and consider lifting the embargo, the tool that has served Castro in justifying his regime’s controls and abuses. Fidel’s brother Raul, caretaker for 19 months and now President, has slowly begun some reforms that lead towards our objectives of human rights (free press, political parties, ceasing the terrorization of population) as well as of economics, the lopsided system that has kept average pay at under $20 month, meanwhile neglecting agriculture and shrinking the housing, clothing, transportation and communications hopes of the people. Raul is expected to start permitting limited capitalist practices of small busineses, self-employment, limited buying and selling of houses, and foreign travel, particularly for athletes. The capricious ideologue non-manager Fidel built up education, with 800, 00 professionals, including 85,000 physicians earning ridiculously low pay, serving a population of 11 million under inadequate conditions. The Democratic candidates are willing to negotiate - the practical Hillary, with a provision of proof that some human rights reforms have taken place, while the more visionary Obama will accept well- established plans.
This brings us back to US matters, particularly the primaries, where Obama has substantially overcome Clinton’s lead, with victories in 11 post-Super Tuesday state races. February 5th seems such a long time ago, and it might be worth while to review Hillary’s New York victory, that, along with the Massachusetts rout, gave such a hope to her camp. New York State had the largest turnout in 20 years, over a third of registered Democrats (also 20% of Republicans) voting, comparable to the eerily parallel of primaries of 1988, when Michael Dukakis scored 51% against Jesse Jackson’s 37 and Al Gore’s 10. That brings up the weird suggestion in The Telegraph of Britain that Al Gore might emerge as the compromise candidate. This is a most improbable scenario that, one imagines, would require some substantial rock-bottom Democratic Party fear that the high-flying Obama, carried by a wave of leftwing/Denial-like enthusiasms, would lose against the stolid McCain; an emergence of Gore from the shadows, and a resignation of Clinton, throwing her elected delegates to Gore and persuading the super-delegates to do likewise. Ugh!
Coming back to reality, here are the numbers underlying Clinton’s New York victory. The state voted 57% for her, with New York City coming in at 55%. Obama won in only one county, Tompkins, in the Finger Lakes, home of Cornell University and Ithaca College. The city boroughs voted Clinton/Obama as follows: Bronx 60/38 (much Latin vote), Brooklyn 50/48, Manhattan 54/44 (heavily Obama on the West Side), Queens 60/38, and Staten Island 61/36%. Overall, Clinton came out with 139 NYS delegates, Obama with 93.
As to the final numbers, using CNN figures, as of February 19 Obama has 1,327 and Clinton has 1255 delegates. Of the approximately 915 remaining delegates to be elected (the total remaining is 1190, discounted by my estimate of 275 super-delegates), Obama would have to win some 85% to have a victory without the appointed delegates' help. We'll wait ‘till August for finite results.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
New York housing prices up, despite national slump
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
The good news is that New York housing prices continue to rise despite a weakening national market. The 4th quarter price comparison, 2007 vs. 2006, for Downtown apartments shows an average price increase for the key one-bedroom apartments of 15% ($836K), vs. 7% for Upper East Side and 17% for West Side. For two bedroom apartments the corresponding ratios were 28 ($1,665K), 18 and 33%. Studio price increases were less, those for the hard to average three-plus bedroom apartments varied.
This is in sharp contrast to the double digit housing price drop in many major cities, led by California, which has the largest deflating price market. The price drop forecasts range from15.2% for Miami (it had a huge condominium boom), through San Diego, Las Vegas (highest rate of subprime mortgages), Detroit (job losses in automobile industry), Phoenix (2nd largest market in subprimes), and Los Angeles (12.8%). The NYS forecasts see continued housing price increases, though at a lower rate, for Manhattan (5.2%), Rochester, Glen Falls and Syracuse, and decreases for Long Island, Albany and Buffalo.
While dropping housing prices may present buying opportunities for the thrifty and the investors, the continuing declines will contribute to the subprime crisis, which drives bank distress and the recession threat. A considerable portion of the housing sales in the past two years was produced by conniving mortgage brokers to unqualified buyers by providing financing at 110% of value, requiring no down payment or closing costs, with the contracts sometimes requiring interest payments only. As interest rates rise and housing values fall, the high price –to-value mortgages turn upside down, with the owners paying for more than the property is worth. With no equity in the property, there is nothing to stop such owners from walking away from the contracts.
Housing prices in the 10 largest national markets fell 8.4% through November 2007, yet construction overall, $1,165T (trillion) was up by a fraction of one percent. That is a good hunk of the incredibly high $11T or so of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
To put our productivity in context, the next largest GDP countries are Japan at $4.5T, Germany at $2.8T, China and United Kingdom at $2.2T, Italy at $1.8T, Spain and Canada at $1.1T. India is at $806B while Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Netherlands, Australia, as well as Russia are in the $700B range. Then there is a drop to the $300B range, with Belgium, Switzerland, Turkey, Sweden, Taiwan as well as Saudi Arabia.
This may be good, but we should note that the US indebtedness is $9T, with $600B in interest payments due annually. The world’s largest economy also has the largest current payments imbalance, at $791B. As this number grows annually, the large creditor nations, primarily Japan, China and India, who put their surplus dollars in US Treasuries and our real estate securities, become concerned and attempt to shift some of their reserves elsewhere, into Euros as well as into purchases of US industries. The failing US banks and other financial institutions have received large billion –dollar investments from the “sovereign” funds that have sprung up in creditor nations throughout the world.
With the post-industrial shift of American economy over the decades following World War II, the US indebtedness has grown, showing negative balances in 31 of the past 35 years. Only the Clinton era, with its dot.com boom, showed positive balances. That changed with the collapse of the boom, following arrival of the Bush regime, with its tax cut/deficit planning philosophy, emulating their idol, Reagan. The Bush years are responsible for $2.3 trillion of the $9 trillion debt.
While 9/1 and the Afghanistan and Iraq wars have been blamed for the increase in the deficit, facts prove that the wars are responsible only for about a quarter of the Bush debt. The Congressional Research Service report on The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11 shows that, as of the enactment of the FY2007 Supplement of May 25, 2007, Congress has approved a total of about $609 for military operations, base security, reconstruction, foreign aid embassy costs and veterans’ health care. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the next 10 years’ war cost to be between $570B and $1.1T, detention whether troop levels in the period fall to 30,000 or 75,000.
This sad fiscal story combines with Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases of 4.1% for 207 vs. 2.5% for 2006, largest since the 6.1% in 1990. December was up 0.3% vs. 0.8% in November, due to the soaring energy costs. Stripping out energy, the corresponding percentages were .2 and .3%, mostly due to the volatility of food prices.
US has beaten its post-industrial era recessions before, with major waves of changes in economic philosophy, notably the arrival of housewives in the labor force and the two-income family, increases of work hours as labor unions lost their clout, and the exuberant growth of consumer credit. This one will be much harder to beat.
In addition to sources mentioned above, Wally Dobelis thanks ValuExchange (prices based on 2,531 Manhattan apartment sales) as reported by Halstead Property, LLC, the forecasts of HousingPredictor.com, data from The Economist and Prof. Robert Reich.
The good news is that New York housing prices continue to rise despite a weakening national market. The 4th quarter price comparison, 2007 vs. 2006, for Downtown apartments shows an average price increase for the key one-bedroom apartments of 15% ($836K), vs. 7% for Upper East Side and 17% for West Side. For two bedroom apartments the corresponding ratios were 28 ($1,665K), 18 and 33%. Studio price increases were less, those for the hard to average three-plus bedroom apartments varied.
This is in sharp contrast to the double digit housing price drop in many major cities, led by California, which has the largest deflating price market. The price drop forecasts range from15.2% for Miami (it had a huge condominium boom), through San Diego, Las Vegas (highest rate of subprime mortgages), Detroit (job losses in automobile industry), Phoenix (2nd largest market in subprimes), and Los Angeles (12.8%). The NYS forecasts see continued housing price increases, though at a lower rate, for Manhattan (5.2%), Rochester, Glen Falls and Syracuse, and decreases for Long Island, Albany and Buffalo.
While dropping housing prices may present buying opportunities for the thrifty and the investors, the continuing declines will contribute to the subprime crisis, which drives bank distress and the recession threat. A considerable portion of the housing sales in the past two years was produced by conniving mortgage brokers to unqualified buyers by providing financing at 110% of value, requiring no down payment or closing costs, with the contracts sometimes requiring interest payments only. As interest rates rise and housing values fall, the high price –to-value mortgages turn upside down, with the owners paying for more than the property is worth. With no equity in the property, there is nothing to stop such owners from walking away from the contracts.
Housing prices in the 10 largest national markets fell 8.4% through November 2007, yet construction overall, $1,165T (trillion) was up by a fraction of one percent. That is a good hunk of the incredibly high $11T or so of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
To put our productivity in context, the next largest GDP countries are Japan at $4.5T, Germany at $2.8T, China and United Kingdom at $2.2T, Italy at $1.8T, Spain and Canada at $1.1T. India is at $806B while Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Netherlands, Australia, as well as Russia are in the $700B range. Then there is a drop to the $300B range, with Belgium, Switzerland, Turkey, Sweden, Taiwan as well as Saudi Arabia.
This may be good, but we should note that the US indebtedness is $9T, with $600B in interest payments due annually. The world’s largest economy also has the largest current payments imbalance, at $791B. As this number grows annually, the large creditor nations, primarily Japan, China and India, who put their surplus dollars in US Treasuries and our real estate securities, become concerned and attempt to shift some of their reserves elsewhere, into Euros as well as into purchases of US industries. The failing US banks and other financial institutions have received large billion –dollar investments from the “sovereign” funds that have sprung up in creditor nations throughout the world.
With the post-industrial shift of American economy over the decades following World War II, the US indebtedness has grown, showing negative balances in 31 of the past 35 years. Only the Clinton era, with its dot.com boom, showed positive balances. That changed with the collapse of the boom, following arrival of the Bush regime, with its tax cut/deficit planning philosophy, emulating their idol, Reagan. The Bush years are responsible for $2.3 trillion of the $9 trillion debt.
While 9/1 and the Afghanistan and Iraq wars have been blamed for the increase in the deficit, facts prove that the wars are responsible only for about a quarter of the Bush debt. The Congressional Research Service report on The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11 shows that, as of the enactment of the FY2007 Supplement of May 25, 2007, Congress has approved a total of about $609 for military operations, base security, reconstruction, foreign aid embassy costs and veterans’ health care. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the next 10 years’ war cost to be between $570B and $1.1T, detention whether troop levels in the period fall to 30,000 or 75,000.
This sad fiscal story combines with Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases of 4.1% for 207 vs. 2.5% for 2006, largest since the 6.1% in 1990. December was up 0.3% vs. 0.8% in November, due to the soaring energy costs. Stripping out energy, the corresponding percentages were .2 and .3%, mostly due to the volatility of food prices.
US has beaten its post-industrial era recessions before, with major waves of changes in economic philosophy, notably the arrival of housewives in the labor force and the two-income family, increases of work hours as labor unions lost their clout, and the exuberant growth of consumer credit. This one will be much harder to beat.
In addition to sources mentioned above, Wally Dobelis thanks ValuExchange (prices based on 2,531 Manhattan apartment sales) as reported by Halstead Property, LLC, the forecasts of HousingPredictor.com, data from The Economist and Prof. Robert Reich.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
New York looks at Super Tuesday and beyond
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
Where to begin. La Vida Es Un Sueno, as Calderon de la Barca intimated, and it is true. We live in a dream, or multiple interlocking dreams. The political dream world brings us daily developments, crises, resolutions, and closings, enough to make a dramatist’s head spin. The dreams shattered, dreams deferred and fortunes lost would give a modern Euripides a full cycle of plots out of one presidential campaign period. We have all turned into pundits and savants, soothsayers if you please, offering forecasts that fit our fancies, as befits our forever adolescence.
Start with Super Tuesday, February 5, when 21 Republican and 22 Democratic state primary voters chose their presidential candidates. On the Republican side, McCain ended with 707 delegates, Romney had 294, Huckabee took 195. To win the GOP candidacy race, one needs 1191 delegates.
Seeking support, McCain went to deliver a dynamite speech on February 7 at the American Conservative Political Activity Convention, proclaiming his agreements with CPAC on birth control, abortion, gun rights, judicial appointments, national security and government spending. He had to defend himself against accusations on campaign finance control, climate changes and immigration policies, the Bush tax cuts, and defending his dubbing of some conservative leaders as agents of intolerance. The ranks of his opponent continue to be formidable. On the Conservative internet, Ann Coulter has turned from Goldwater Girl to a Hillary Girl, snowballing all the accusations into a blanket declaration that McCain is a Liberal and a Democrat, and soothsaying that a Hillary presidency will unify Republicans, to overthrow her four years later, for an everlasting GOP paradise thereafter, while a McCain presidency will turn Republicans into midstream patsies in four years, leading to 30 years of subsequent Democrat rule. Club of Growth, the tax cut people, consider the Arizonian’s record tenuous. James Dobson of Focus on Family will not vote, if McCain wins. On the air waves, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham continue to deny McCain’s Conservative credentials. McCain has objected, pointing to an 83% rating from the American Conservative Union, sponsor of the conference.
But, right there at the CPAC, like a thunderbolt, instead of an expected clarion call from Gov. Romney for Conservatives to close ranks behind him, the 2nd-ranking GOP candidate announced that he is withdrawing and urging all Republicans to unite behind McCain in the interests of destroying terrorists, stopping the intra-party warfare and concentrating on defeating the Democrats in November 2008. Romney had apparently done the calculus that after spending $40M of family money ($87M overall) his eventual defeat was inescapable.
What to do? The sudden Republican dilemma was obviously wrenching, even to the schadenfreude-prone observers – it put the nation at risk, not just the demoralized GOPians. The whackily charming populist Huckabee, a creationist, hated by the radio hosts even more than McCain, who refuses to withdraw, is the Republicans’ unlikely remaining major candidate, overwhelmingly winning Kansas two days later. But reason prevailed at the CPAC, and the convention turned into a triumph for McCain, who in the coming weeks would have had scary setbacks until the eventual national primary vote victory. Now he can look forward to an easy summer 2008 Republican national convention in St. Paul.
The Democrats have not had a similar resolves, with Hillary and Obama splitting Super Tuesday’s 22 state primaries, the big states bringing the delegates count to 1045 in the Clinton column, vs. 960 for Barack, towards the magic number of 2025. The week after Super Tuesday Obama won four more states, narrowing the gap. The Texas and Ohio vote on March 3 will not resolve, and the elected delegates’ deadlock is expected to continue until the Denver nominating meeting in August 2008. The fact that Obama’s campaign raised $37M in January/February against Hillary’s $17M is causing some concern.
Consequently, the 20% of super-delegates, some 800 appointed Democratic party leaders, mostly Congresspeople, will be in control of the Presidential candidacy, and the contenders will have to convince them of their potential in winning against McCain. The internecine warfare will continue, giving the Republicans more ammunition.
This puts the potentially incipient Bloomberg candidacy theorists in an interesting position. We have already surrendered a New York candidate, Giuliani, and Hillary is not a shoo-in. Could the Mayor of our fair city give the more rabid political Conservatives a viable anti-McCain candidate to back, a practical businessman with Liberal /Democratic background and a record of accomplishments, not exactly acceptable for the Christian social Conservatives, but anyway…? Which party would the “Nader effect” impact more? Would this drain a potential Hillary candidacy more that that of Obama? Would Bloomberg be crazy enough to create the third party, a billion dollar endeavor, and risk the social consequences? The odds are against it, but speculation is a major American sport.
You can find more of Wally Dobelis’ columns on http:/dobelisfile.blogspot. The actual title of Calderon's 17th Century Oedipal comedy about Basilio, King of Poland and his son Sigismundo is LaVida Es Sueno, and the iimprisoned prince's Hamlet-like song translates as:
What is life? A frenzy. What is life? An illusion
A shdow, a fiction, andut dreams, and the greatest gain is petty.
For all of life is a dream, and dreams are nothing but dreams.
Where to begin. La Vida Es Un Sueno, as Calderon de la Barca intimated, and it is true. We live in a dream, or multiple interlocking dreams. The political dream world brings us daily developments, crises, resolutions, and closings, enough to make a dramatist’s head spin. The dreams shattered, dreams deferred and fortunes lost would give a modern Euripides a full cycle of plots out of one presidential campaign period. We have all turned into pundits and savants, soothsayers if you please, offering forecasts that fit our fancies, as befits our forever adolescence.
Start with Super Tuesday, February 5, when 21 Republican and 22 Democratic state primary voters chose their presidential candidates. On the Republican side, McCain ended with 707 delegates, Romney had 294, Huckabee took 195. To win the GOP candidacy race, one needs 1191 delegates.
Seeking support, McCain went to deliver a dynamite speech on February 7 at the American Conservative Political Activity Convention, proclaiming his agreements with CPAC on birth control, abortion, gun rights, judicial appointments, national security and government spending. He had to defend himself against accusations on campaign finance control, climate changes and immigration policies, the Bush tax cuts, and defending his dubbing of some conservative leaders as agents of intolerance. The ranks of his opponent continue to be formidable. On the Conservative internet, Ann Coulter has turned from Goldwater Girl to a Hillary Girl, snowballing all the accusations into a blanket declaration that McCain is a Liberal and a Democrat, and soothsaying that a Hillary presidency will unify Republicans, to overthrow her four years later, for an everlasting GOP paradise thereafter, while a McCain presidency will turn Republicans into midstream patsies in four years, leading to 30 years of subsequent Democrat rule. Club of Growth, the tax cut people, consider the Arizonian’s record tenuous. James Dobson of Focus on Family will not vote, if McCain wins. On the air waves, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham continue to deny McCain’s Conservative credentials. McCain has objected, pointing to an 83% rating from the American Conservative Union, sponsor of the conference.
But, right there at the CPAC, like a thunderbolt, instead of an expected clarion call from Gov. Romney for Conservatives to close ranks behind him, the 2nd-ranking GOP candidate announced that he is withdrawing and urging all Republicans to unite behind McCain in the interests of destroying terrorists, stopping the intra-party warfare and concentrating on defeating the Democrats in November 2008. Romney had apparently done the calculus that after spending $40M of family money ($87M overall) his eventual defeat was inescapable.
What to do? The sudden Republican dilemma was obviously wrenching, even to the schadenfreude-prone observers – it put the nation at risk, not just the demoralized GOPians. The whackily charming populist Huckabee, a creationist, hated by the radio hosts even more than McCain, who refuses to withdraw, is the Republicans’ unlikely remaining major candidate, overwhelmingly winning Kansas two days later. But reason prevailed at the CPAC, and the convention turned into a triumph for McCain, who in the coming weeks would have had scary setbacks until the eventual national primary vote victory. Now he can look forward to an easy summer 2008 Republican national convention in St. Paul.
The Democrats have not had a similar resolves, with Hillary and Obama splitting Super Tuesday’s 22 state primaries, the big states bringing the delegates count to 1045 in the Clinton column, vs. 960 for Barack, towards the magic number of 2025. The week after Super Tuesday Obama won four more states, narrowing the gap. The Texas and Ohio vote on March 3 will not resolve, and the elected delegates’ deadlock is expected to continue until the Denver nominating meeting in August 2008. The fact that Obama’s campaign raised $37M in January/February against Hillary’s $17M is causing some concern.
Consequently, the 20% of super-delegates, some 800 appointed Democratic party leaders, mostly Congresspeople, will be in control of the Presidential candidacy, and the contenders will have to convince them of their potential in winning against McCain. The internecine warfare will continue, giving the Republicans more ammunition.
This puts the potentially incipient Bloomberg candidacy theorists in an interesting position. We have already surrendered a New York candidate, Giuliani, and Hillary is not a shoo-in. Could the Mayor of our fair city give the more rabid political Conservatives a viable anti-McCain candidate to back, a practical businessman with Liberal /Democratic background and a record of accomplishments, not exactly acceptable for the Christian social Conservatives, but anyway…? Which party would the “Nader effect” impact more? Would this drain a potential Hillary candidacy more that that of Obama? Would Bloomberg be crazy enough to create the third party, a billion dollar endeavor, and risk the social consequences? The odds are against it, but speculation is a major American sport.
You can find more of Wally Dobelis’ columns on http:/dobelisfile.blogspot. The actual title of Calderon's 17th Century Oedipal comedy about Basilio, King of Poland and his son Sigismundo is LaVida Es Sueno, and the iimprisoned prince's Hamlet-like song translates as:
What is life? A frenzy. What is life? An illusion
A shdow, a fiction, andut dreams, and the greatest gain is petty.
For all of life is a dream, and dreams are nothing but dreams.
Saturday, February 09, 2008
How to decide on Primary Day
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
Thinking about Super Tuesday (it will be history when you read the article, my deadline coincides with the primary) brings back to mind the rapidity with which politics have moved ahead. A month ago the Democrats had three contenders, the least of which moved ahead through the Iowa primary, to be overtaken in New Hampshire and reemerge as victor in South Carolina. Then one candidate, Edwards, dropped, reducing the field to two. The Republicans had four and, likewise, lost the sometime leader Giuliani, when his strategy tanked.
Most interesting has been the realignment of their supporters. The front-runner, McCain, does not have the blessings of some big Conservative guns. Ann Coulter considers Hillary less objectionable - after all Clinton is only a standard Liberal, while McCain is a traitor to the principles, advocating Liberalism under a midstream guise. Rush Limbaugh, the radio gun, has the same problem - but then the Conservatives have issues with the Mormon candidate as well. David Keene, President of the American Conservative Movement, has determined that McCain is a creation of the media, without substance, and has grabbed the bull by the horns, endorsing Romney.
All this comes through on the iNTERNET. from essentially four types of "news sources”: the political fundraiser websites, the 527 organizations, the spammers, and the ever-present chain letters. How does one luck out to receive their unceasing bulletins? Well, once you ask one of them a question, you become the captive of their expanding networks. Some examples:
The MoveOn people, the 1998 pro- Clinton Democratic fund raisers, not an outstanding news source, are typical. During the political off-seasons they are dull, and revive only when a big target like Gen. Petraeus, whose name they rhyme with "betray us," comes in sight. Their MoveOn Political Action, with 3.2 million members, takes no funds from corporations, unions, foundations and the like, and works directly or through social networks, such as Facebook (60 million members) to influence voters. MoveOn’s endorsement of Obama is slightly veiled, so as not to bug off the supporters of the Clintons.
The messages from the official Democratic campaign committees, sporadic senders of pleas, intercepted by the Earthlink blog catcher and segregated as Suspicious Messages, are less news- worthy. The DCCC – Congressional fund raiser, led by Brian Wolff – and DSCC, its Senatorial counterpart, with letters signed by James Carville, have a few emergency announcements, prompting the calls for money. There are also occasional requests from Nancy Pelosi and ex-VP Al Gore. Some place between fundraising and investigative reporting fall the stories of Greg Palast, news writer and TV commentator, who has a 501c(3) organization that supports his efforts to whack George Bush and his cronies with misdeeds beyond belief, seemingly substantiated with facts. Since the fall of the House of Bush the Palast effort has somewhat subsided, diverting into less sensationalist tales.
News disseminators on the Conservative side are truly prolific. A protest letter I sent to Ann Coulter that elicited a reply opened the floodgates for weekly articles from the scrappy sensationalist writer, published in Human Events, the right-wing journal dating back to the 1950s, founded by National Review people. Then came weekly summaries of the magazine itself, weekly releases from Newt Gingrich, and Robert Novak’s ENPR (Evans-Novak Political Report), a substantial periodic review of activities of pols of both parties, House and Senate. The heaviest right-wing hitter is the Conservative Newsmax.com, claiming 2 ½ million monthly visitors, with a newsmagazine of 600K subscribers. Founded by Christopher Ruddy, its main financial supporter is Richard Mellon Scaife, the angel behind most of the anti-Clinton efforts during the 1990s, and their Washington correspondent Ronald Kessler, ex-Washington Post, has his own signed releases. The Conservative Internet is abuzz, between intimations of Obama’s Muslim background, revivals of old Clinton stories and denunciations of McCain’s midstream direction and purported Liberalism. Despite his great support of social Conservatives, the Populist Huckabee comes in for beatings as well.
If it were not enough, chain letters are chiming in with political observations. This comes on top of such stories as that of Jackie Mason’s Bilingual America (he gets ferkplempt and has broygges when listening to the schmegegges about official use of languages other than English), and advocacies of garlic as the perfect cure for all ailments.
There is a rather cute one, retelling of the story of owning two cows, under various regimes. If you are a Democrat, you will feel guilty, and Barbara Streisand will sing for you. A Republican will ask – so what, a Socialist will give one to a neighbor and form a cooperative dairy, a Communist will take both. An American corporation will sell and lease-back one, then do an IPO, and, when one dies, claim gains from a cost reduction initiative. A Frenchman will drink wine, strike for a third cow and reflect how great life is, and so it goes.
An old one, George Bush’s job application effective January 20, 2009, has surfaced again, from more than one source, accompanied by a hair-raising job resume. Enough already, as Jackie Mason would say.
Thinking about Super Tuesday (it will be history when you read the article, my deadline coincides with the primary) brings back to mind the rapidity with which politics have moved ahead. A month ago the Democrats had three contenders, the least of which moved ahead through the Iowa primary, to be overtaken in New Hampshire and reemerge as victor in South Carolina. Then one candidate, Edwards, dropped, reducing the field to two. The Republicans had four and, likewise, lost the sometime leader Giuliani, when his strategy tanked.
Most interesting has been the realignment of their supporters. The front-runner, McCain, does not have the blessings of some big Conservative guns. Ann Coulter considers Hillary less objectionable - after all Clinton is only a standard Liberal, while McCain is a traitor to the principles, advocating Liberalism under a midstream guise. Rush Limbaugh, the radio gun, has the same problem - but then the Conservatives have issues with the Mormon candidate as well. David Keene, President of the American Conservative Movement, has determined that McCain is a creation of the media, without substance, and has grabbed the bull by the horns, endorsing Romney.
All this comes through on the iNTERNET. from essentially four types of "news sources”: the political fundraiser websites, the 527 organizations, the spammers, and the ever-present chain letters. How does one luck out to receive their unceasing bulletins? Well, once you ask one of them a question, you become the captive of their expanding networks. Some examples:
The MoveOn people, the 1998 pro- Clinton Democratic fund raisers, not an outstanding news source, are typical. During the political off-seasons they are dull, and revive only when a big target like Gen. Petraeus, whose name they rhyme with "betray us," comes in sight. Their MoveOn Political Action, with 3.2 million members, takes no funds from corporations, unions, foundations and the like, and works directly or through social networks, such as Facebook (60 million members) to influence voters. MoveOn’s endorsement of Obama is slightly veiled, so as not to bug off the supporters of the Clintons.
The messages from the official Democratic campaign committees, sporadic senders of pleas, intercepted by the Earthlink blog catcher and segregated as Suspicious Messages, are less news- worthy. The DCCC – Congressional fund raiser, led by Brian Wolff – and DSCC, its Senatorial counterpart, with letters signed by James Carville, have a few emergency announcements, prompting the calls for money. There are also occasional requests from Nancy Pelosi and ex-VP Al Gore. Some place between fundraising and investigative reporting fall the stories of Greg Palast, news writer and TV commentator, who has a 501c(3) organization that supports his efforts to whack George Bush and his cronies with misdeeds beyond belief, seemingly substantiated with facts. Since the fall of the House of Bush the Palast effort has somewhat subsided, diverting into less sensationalist tales.
News disseminators on the Conservative side are truly prolific. A protest letter I sent to Ann Coulter that elicited a reply opened the floodgates for weekly articles from the scrappy sensationalist writer, published in Human Events, the right-wing journal dating back to the 1950s, founded by National Review people. Then came weekly summaries of the magazine itself, weekly releases from Newt Gingrich, and Robert Novak’s ENPR (Evans-Novak Political Report), a substantial periodic review of activities of pols of both parties, House and Senate. The heaviest right-wing hitter is the Conservative Newsmax.com, claiming 2 ½ million monthly visitors, with a newsmagazine of 600K subscribers. Founded by Christopher Ruddy, its main financial supporter is Richard Mellon Scaife, the angel behind most of the anti-Clinton efforts during the 1990s, and their Washington correspondent Ronald Kessler, ex-Washington Post, has his own signed releases. The Conservative Internet is abuzz, between intimations of Obama’s Muslim background, revivals of old Clinton stories and denunciations of McCain’s midstream direction and purported Liberalism. Despite his great support of social Conservatives, the Populist Huckabee comes in for beatings as well.
If it were not enough, chain letters are chiming in with political observations. This comes on top of such stories as that of Jackie Mason’s Bilingual America (he gets ferkplempt and has broygges when listening to the schmegegges about official use of languages other than English), and advocacies of garlic as the perfect cure for all ailments.
There is a rather cute one, retelling of the story of owning two cows, under various regimes. If you are a Democrat, you will feel guilty, and Barbara Streisand will sing for you. A Republican will ask – so what, a Socialist will give one to a neighbor and form a cooperative dairy, a Communist will take both. An American corporation will sell and lease-back one, then do an IPO, and, when one dies, claim gains from a cost reduction initiative. A Frenchman will drink wine, strike for a third cow and reflect how great life is, and so it goes.
An old one, George Bush’s job application effective January 20, 2009, has surfaced again, from more than one source, accompanied by a hair-raising job resume. Enough already, as Jackie Mason would say.
Thursday, February 07, 2008
Political "news" via Facebook and spams
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
Thinking about Super Tuesday (it will be history when you read the article, my deadline coincides with the primary) brings back to mind the rapidity with which politics have moved ahead. A month ago the Democrats had three contenders, the least of which moved ahead through the Iowa primary, to be overtaken in New Hampshire and reemerge as victor in South Carolina. Then one candidate, Edwards, dropped, reducing the field to two. The Republicans had four and, likewise, lost the sometime leader Giuliani, when his strategy tanked. Most interesting has been the realignment of their supporters. The front-runner, MeCain, does not have the blessings of some big Conservative guns. Ann Coulter considers Hillary less objectionable — after all Clinton is only a standard Liberal, while McCain is a traitor to the principles, advocating Liberalism under a midstream guise. Rush Limbaugh, the radio gun, has the same problem — but then the Conservatives have issues with the Mormon candidate as well. David Keene, President of the American Conservative Movement, has determined that McCain is a creation of the media, without substance. All this comes through on the internet from essentially four types of “news sources:” the political fundraiser websites, the 527 organizations, the spammers, and the ever-present chain letters. How does one luck out to receive their unceasing bulletins? Well, once you ask one of them a question, you become the captive of their expanding networks. Some examples:
The MoveOn people, the 1998 pro-Clinton Democratic fundraisers, not an outstanding news source, are typical. During the political off-seasons they are dull, and revive only when a big target like Gen. Petraeus, whose name they rhyme with “betray us,” comes in sight. Their MoveOn Political Action, with 3.2 million members, takes no funds from corporations, unions, foundations and the like, and works directly or through social networks, such as Facebook (60 million members) to influence voters. MoveOn’s endorsement of Obama is slightly veiled, so as not to bug off the supporters of the Clintons. The messages from the official Democratic campaign committees, sporadic senders of pleas, intercepted by the Earthlink blog catcher and segregated as suspicious messages, are less newsworthy. The DCCC - Congressional fundraiser, led by Brian Wolff— and DSCC, its Senatorial counterpart, with letters signed by James Carville, have a few emergency announcements, prompting the calls for money. There are also occasional requests from Nancy Pelosi and ex-VP Al Gore. Some place between fundraising and investigative reporting fall the stories of Greg Palast, news writer and TV commentator, who has a 501c(3) organization that supports his efforts to whack George Bush and his cronies with misdeeds beyond belief, seemingly substantiated with facts. Since the fall of the House of Bush the Palast effort has somewhat subsided, diverting into less sensationalist tales. News disseminators on the Conservative side are truly prolific. A protest letter I sent to Ann Coulter that elicited a reply opened the floodgates for weekly articles from the scrappy sensationalist writer, published in Human Events, the right-wing journal dating back to the 1950s, founded by National Review people. Then came weekly summaries of the magazine itself, weekly release from Newt Gingrich, and Robert Novak’s ENPR (Evans-Novak Political Report), a substantial periodic review of activities of pols of both parties, House and Senate.The heaviest, right-wing hitter is the Conservative Newsmax, claiming 2 1/2 million monthly visitors, with a newsmagazine ol 600K subscribers. Founded by Christopher Ruddy, its main financial supporter is Richard Mellon Scaife, the angel behind most of the anti-Clinton efforts during the 1990s, and their Washington correspondent Ronald Kessler, ex-Washington Post, has his own signed releases. The Conservative Internet is abuzz, between intimations of Obania’s Muslim background, revivals of old Clinton stories and denunciations of McCain’s midstream direction and purported Liberalism. Despite his great support of social Conservatives, the Populist Huckabee comes in for beatings as well.
If it were not enough, chain letters are chiming in with political observations. This comes on top of such stories as that of Jackie Mason’s Bilingual America (he gets ferkplempt and has broygges when listening to the schmegegges about official use of languages other than English), and advocacies of garlic as the perfect cure for all ailments.
There is a rather cute one, retelling of the story of owning two cows, under various regimes. If you are a Democrat, you will feel guilty, and Barbara Streisand will sing for you. A Republican will ask — so what, a Socialist will give one to a neighbor and form a cooperative dairy, a Communist will take both. An American corporation will sell and lease back one, then do an IPO, and, when one dies, claim gains from a cost reduction initiative. A Frenchman will drink wine, strike for a third cow and reflect how great life is, and so it goes.
Thinking about Super Tuesday (it will be history when you read the article, my deadline coincides with the primary) brings back to mind the rapidity with which politics have moved ahead. A month ago the Democrats had three contenders, the least of which moved ahead through the Iowa primary, to be overtaken in New Hampshire and reemerge as victor in South Carolina. Then one candidate, Edwards, dropped, reducing the field to two. The Republicans had four and, likewise, lost the sometime leader Giuliani, when his strategy tanked. Most interesting has been the realignment of their supporters. The front-runner, MeCain, does not have the blessings of some big Conservative guns. Ann Coulter considers Hillary less objectionable — after all Clinton is only a standard Liberal, while McCain is a traitor to the principles, advocating Liberalism under a midstream guise. Rush Limbaugh, the radio gun, has the same problem — but then the Conservatives have issues with the Mormon candidate as well. David Keene, President of the American Conservative Movement, has determined that McCain is a creation of the media, without substance. All this comes through on the internet from essentially four types of “news sources:” the political fundraiser websites, the 527 organizations, the spammers, and the ever-present chain letters. How does one luck out to receive their unceasing bulletins? Well, once you ask one of them a question, you become the captive of their expanding networks. Some examples:
The MoveOn people, the 1998 pro-Clinton Democratic fundraisers, not an outstanding news source, are typical. During the political off-seasons they are dull, and revive only when a big target like Gen. Petraeus, whose name they rhyme with “betray us,” comes in sight. Their MoveOn Political Action, with 3.2 million members, takes no funds from corporations, unions, foundations and the like, and works directly or through social networks, such as Facebook (60 million members) to influence voters. MoveOn’s endorsement of Obama is slightly veiled, so as not to bug off the supporters of the Clintons. The messages from the official Democratic campaign committees, sporadic senders of pleas, intercepted by the Earthlink blog catcher and segregated as suspicious messages, are less newsworthy. The DCCC - Congressional fundraiser, led by Brian Wolff— and DSCC, its Senatorial counterpart, with letters signed by James Carville, have a few emergency announcements, prompting the calls for money. There are also occasional requests from Nancy Pelosi and ex-VP Al Gore. Some place between fundraising and investigative reporting fall the stories of Greg Palast, news writer and TV commentator, who has a 501c(3) organization that supports his efforts to whack George Bush and his cronies with misdeeds beyond belief, seemingly substantiated with facts. Since the fall of the House of Bush the Palast effort has somewhat subsided, diverting into less sensationalist tales. News disseminators on the Conservative side are truly prolific. A protest letter I sent to Ann Coulter that elicited a reply opened the floodgates for weekly articles from the scrappy sensationalist writer, published in Human Events, the right-wing journal dating back to the 1950s, founded by National Review people. Then came weekly summaries of the magazine itself, weekly release from Newt Gingrich, and Robert Novak’s ENPR (Evans-Novak Political Report), a substantial periodic review of activities of pols of both parties, House and Senate.The heaviest, right-wing hitter is the Conservative Newsmax, claiming 2 1/2 million monthly visitors, with a newsmagazine ol 600K subscribers. Founded by Christopher Ruddy, its main financial supporter is Richard Mellon Scaife, the angel behind most of the anti-Clinton efforts during the 1990s, and their Washington correspondent Ronald Kessler, ex-Washington Post, has his own signed releases. The Conservative Internet is abuzz, between intimations of Obania’s Muslim background, revivals of old Clinton stories and denunciations of McCain’s midstream direction and purported Liberalism. Despite his great support of social Conservatives, the Populist Huckabee comes in for beatings as well.
If it were not enough, chain letters are chiming in with political observations. This comes on top of such stories as that of Jackie Mason’s Bilingual America (he gets ferkplempt and has broygges when listening to the schmegegges about official use of languages other than English), and advocacies of garlic as the perfect cure for all ailments.
There is a rather cute one, retelling of the story of owning two cows, under various regimes. If you are a Democrat, you will feel guilty, and Barbara Streisand will sing for you. A Republican will ask — so what, a Socialist will give one to a neighbor and form a cooperative dairy, a Communist will take both. An American corporation will sell and lease back one, then do an IPO, and, when one dies, claim gains from a cost reduction initiative. A Frenchman will drink wine, strike for a third cow and reflect how great life is, and so it goes.
