Looking Ahead

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
Passing my neighborhood barbershop, I noticed that there was no wait for a haircut, and walked in. As soon as I sat down, the barber at the only other busy chair, whom I know as a taciturn émigré from Samarkand, uncharacteristically opened the conversation with his client, a gray-haired gent: "So, did you watch the debates?" "Yes, and McCain scored some points, but Obama won." "Why you like Obama?" "I mostly dislike his predecessors, who lied and got us into a war (pause). Obama’s medical single source pay program will not materialize, but McCain’s annual medical fund does not make sense." I was going to interject with a correction, that Obama had shifted to an insurance approach, but my haircutter, who was intently listening, raised his hand to wave me off. "Big professor," he whispered.

"Obama also has a good tax policy, giving relief to the middle class, but you rich barbers who make $250 thousand a year will suffer." "Yeah, yeah, we rich people, but American medicine is the worst, too expensive, and giving $5,000 fund for medical expenses is stupid and Socialist. Why not make it easy, same for everybody, like in other countries? And what about the war? " "You don’t like withdrawal from Iraq in 16 months, right? (nod) Well, now he will have Colin Powell as his military advisor, and the General will help Obama decide whether and when to leave Iraq. Besides, don’t forget that Obama is the most brilliant speaker of the century {enthusiastic nod), and may talk the opponents into peace. He looks like them and talks like them and is young like them, and may even persuade Ahmadinejad to give up nuclear arms. That’s why Zbigniew Brzezinski supported him to begin with, that his pictures and smiles in Teheran papers will buy us six months of calm."
"Yeah, but what about the black people?" "Aha, so you are uneasy, just like that Joe the plumber. You think he will give them too much power and welfare? (nod, nod) Yes, and pride and self-respect? That’s good, right? (assent) Consider this, that Obama in June was talking in churches about black fathers having to assume parenting responsibilities, and got Jesse Jackson so mad that he wanted to physically mutilate Obama. The Rev’s own son denounced him, and Jackson had to apologize and keep quiet and stop being a spoiler. If you are worrying, believe me, Obama, if anyone, will be the man to persuade black men to assume more responsibilities, go to school and get jobs. He may be the best role model to get them out of the hopeless and helpless "the white world is against me" positions (doubtful look). Let me tell you a story… there was a black person in a major corporation in a public job, who was meticulous about work but haughty and challenging with people, not ugly but borderline unpleasant. Nobody liked this person but no one would tackle the job of correcting, for fear of not being PC. But then the boss of the department retired, and a black manager was hired. Within a year he moved the unpleasant person out, and everybody breathed easier. Don’t you think that Obama would be able to tackle the controversial borderline race-related problems that would stymie a white president?"

There was a pause, and then the speaker picked up the thread: "Let me tell you another story. If Obama does not make it, we are not going to have bad race riots, as some fear, but there will be long-term consequences of racial conflict. Riots come only after acts of violence, such as the assassination of Martin Luther King in 1968, and the Rodney King beating in LA where 50 people died. The Crown Heights riot was caused by an accident, when a boy died after being injured by a car during the Rabbi Schneerson funeral.

"I don’t want to leave you feeling bad and unbalanced, suspicious of Obama. Just consider that big Republicans like Powell and Kenneth Adelman, both Reagan veterans, will vote for Obama, the latter because he mistrusts McCain’s judgment and rash decisions, and thinks that choosing Sarah Palin for Vice President, just a heartbeat from Presidency, was downright mindless.

His haircut being finished, we had some silence and reflection time. Just before leaving, the Professor gave us his last bit: "To make you feel better, the economic crisis we are having means that there cannot be a Great World War, ever again. We are too interdependent, and the Middle Easterners who want to advance a doomsday scenario will have to be controlled by the rest of us, Europe, China and Russia as well, or else the world is at risk of perishing. Obama will be a great spokesperson for this world-wide concern."

After the Professor left I asked his barber: "So what do you think?" He shrugged his shoulders; "I don’t know, Obama is still a Socialist." Go figure.

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

The good Dr. P. posts the following e-mail:

When Mark Twain said that he does not belong to an organized party, that he was a Democrat, he was not kidding. While the Big Tent does accept all comers, it also inhibits unified action, campaign or otherwise.

This becomes most evident when the author receives, day after day, chain letters from friends – he knows a lot of people – circulating destructive sets of statistics about Obama, his family history, his associates, terrorist background, funds, and donors and spending. The Republican Conservatives are extremely well organized, and unscrupulous about facts as well as about privacy.

The chain letter literature is mixed stuff, totally invented stories concatenated with references of seemingly impartial sources. Thus, today’s letter suggested that the reader check Snopes, an urban legend compiler and computer fraud demystifier, and sure enough someone had combined selected part-quotes of Obama’s autobiography, of reminding himself of a black heritage while growing up as a white person, with descriptions of his terrorist, anti-American and leftist/liberal actions and associations. Misquoted fact and wild surmises cited as facts is the mix one gets daily by e-mail, accelerating in pace, not just from friends but also clever operators who copy inadvertently disclosed recipient lists on e-mail as their own.

Herewith a parenthetical privacy and security protection reminder to the reader – in sending e-mail to groups of your friends and acquaintances (broadly defined ), always list the recipients under bcc:, not under To: (you can put yourself there): or cc: This avoids the printout of all names at the recipients, which is easily copied and abused by an unscrupulous person. As for mailings to relatives, where you want them to know who was notified, suit yourself.

The Republican/Conservative propagandists are clever in leveraging a reader's inquiry into an inclusion in their mailing lists. Some time ago Dr. P. was incautious enough to send a comment to some clever slander by Ann Coulter. From that he ended up on the mailing lists of Newsmax, the magazine that issues daily clever headline and teaser announcements and stories. It sustains reader interest by including a digest of Late Night Jokes (including some about Sarah Palen’s hair), and a separate mailing with sensationalist health stories about new heart disease, diabetes and cholesterol controls. tests and novel cures, as well as newsletter sales material from stock market analysts announcing promising new oil discoveries, “green” stocks and economic forecasts. In separate releases their stars Ronald Kessler and Arnaud de Borchegrave (ex-Newsweek, always interesting) supply longer profiles of world problems, with a slant.

This same letter also brought Dr. P. headlines from Human Events, the old conservative journal, with health and market tidbits (a Pac Man for your arteries, inhibit Alzheimer’s, protect your wealth) interspersed, like a chassis to carry the propaganda. It also brought him Ann Coulter’s weekly column, most recently addressing Joe Biden’s hair, and the Evans-Novak Political Report (ENPR), a holdover from the old column, with somewhat more trustworthy content. All this tastefully accompanied with subscription offers and book prizes from their favored authors.

If some of the stories arouse your interest, it is on purpose; Dr. Paranoia would like the Democratic National Committee, the corresponding Congressional Campaign Committees, the Move On people, their surrogates and other fundraisers learn the basics of how to influence people by getting them interested, and by using suggestions from friends. During this same period he received five or six three-paragraph e-mails a week , a few words sending distress signals and asking for contributions, from John Kerry, Rep. Rahm Emanuel and Nancy Pelosi on behalf of DCCC, Sen. Harry Reid, Sen. Ted Kennedy (DSCCC), Madeleine K. Albright, Ellen R. Malcolm (Emily’s List), Eli Pariser, Eden Rubin, Jason Rubin, Lucile K. (MovingOn). No words of substance, nothing worth reading, copying or quoting that he could reference and send to reluctant friends trying to decide for whom to vote.

The Deaniacs of 2004 had at least some substance on which to build a message, although the medium was largely it. In 2008 the DNC offers nothing, riding on the hope that the population’s disgust with the lies of the Neocons and the administration and the brilliant speeches of Obama will produce miracles. Setting the groundwork is a laborious and necessary task. The Republicans have the heritage of negative campaign inventor Lee Atwater (associating Michael Dukakis with the weekend furloughing of murderer Willie Horton), the organizational work of Newt Gingrich and his 2000 successor Karl Rove, and the ground preparation of their talk show hosts. All that GOP literature he was flooded with was the result of years of preparation, and it will continue to exist, feeding the mindset of the adepts and ready to be used in election years on the unwary. Mark Twain’s observation is still valid. NDC, DCCC, DSCC to note.

“I don’t expect them to learn,” concludes Dr. Paranoia.

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis



In this scary market and credit collapse situation, I do not know how to judge our economy, except by pouring out the facts, putting them down and looking at them. Bear with me and think along, because that’s what you are getting, right here.

It seems like ancient history already, but there was the subprime mortgage crash, Bear-Sterns a major broker went broke in March, Treasury/Fed Reserve interfered and it was bought by Chase, saved because Bear is also a credit transfer agent.
June saw Countrywide Financial’s takeover, after its spin-off IndyMacBank collapsed, and Lehman went broke and the Fed let it happen,
Then Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac, mortgage giants had to be bailed out by the Fed, costing the taxpayer beaucoup, say 4100B. They hold $5.2T in mortgages, .
AIG, insurance giant, was brought down when the mortgage tranches it has insured by swaps become unredeemable, and the Fed will bail it out with $85B taxpayer money guarantees.
Then Merrill Lynch went down, and again, The Bank of America picked it up for a song. Hmmm, like Countrywide…Now WaMu , the number Four bank, lost it, and Chase again was the buyer.
Wachovia now disclosed that it is overextended with $330B toxic mortgages – it had bought mortgage-rich Golden State in 2006. Citigroup bought a fraction of Wachovia's losses, but Wachovia reneged and let Wells Fargo buy the whole, at seven times the price Now Citi, a dangerously overleveraged case itself, is suing for having lost a steal.

Moving right along, investment banks Goldman Sachs and MorganStanley ran under the protection of FDIC. End of Big Wall Street.

In Europe Benelux giant Fortis was nationalized, by three national treasuries buying shares, same in Britain.

The world of commerce is going down, it is evident, when depositors start fleeing, and bank reserves with loans on a $30 to $1 leverage become insufficient, The credit system on which the working world lives is has shut down, banks cannot give daily operations cash for commercial paper and companies cannot meet payroll, in extreme cases. The economy is sound, only the commerce and daily operations money is not available.

At this point Paulsen and Bernanke decided that buying up to $700B worth of toxic mortgage tranches will restore customer confidence and save the credit system. After seesaw battle in Congress the compromise was written with an escape, to let government inject cash by buying bank shares. Surprise, Bush bought it

Suppose this will be accepted . Now the questions: How to ratio it? Presumably take the book value and mark-to-market value and first bolster the banks with the worst ratio?? How about if loss is 80%, cut the CEOs golden parachute also by 80% ?Hmmm.
Suppose the banks just raise the distress ratio and suck up the taxpayers’ money without doing anything to restore depositors’ confidence? That’s not rational behavior:, the banks will go broke and stockholder lawyers will kill the CEO’s assets.
Why not just buy up all defaulted mortgages, and save the poor schnooks’ lives, McCain’s social service solution, and let the banks fend for themselves? Yeah, but credit needs to be restored or else we all will be poor schnooks.

Why did the US not learn from the Great Depression? FDR did, and the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act separated bankers, brokers and insurers. But in 1982 decontrol-happy Pres. Reagan’s Depository Institution Act created the Savings & Loan bubble, mortgage sales rampant by uncontrolled S&Ls, while banks remained controlled, until the S&Ls collapsed in 1989, costing the US, as Resolution Trust Corp, $125B. James Keating, McCain’s benefactor, ignored a Home Loan Bank Board controls edict (Greenspan supported him).

Next, the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999 that permitted retail banking, investment banking and insurance in one entity, further destroyed Glass-Steagall, now freeing regular banks from the restrictions that limited leverage during the S&L rampage. McCain voted for it, Clinton signed it. This act is deemed to be the real villain in creating uncontrolled operations. Then, Sen. Phil Gramm in Commodity Futures Modernization Act in Oct. 2000 set up nontransparent trading tools – the Enron loophole decontrolling energy trading cost CA $13B; Greenspan liked the credit default swaps in 2002, despite Arthur Lewitt’s (SEC) 1999 warnings of Congress against lack of transparency.


What’s the solution? . Well, writing it out clears the mind, somewhat.. First, the market has to bottom out, as soon as possible, a 936 Dow points gained day is not enough. Second,. we need the bailout, in stages, controlled, with a triage to help potential survivors first, by buying bank shares, and FDIC guarantees. We need transparency, suspending mark-to-value calculations for fear of irrational dips would slow down bottoming. Above all, US must restore credit.

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
John C Angle, FSA, passed away at 85 in Lincoln, NE, on September 23. He was the first President of the 14th Street-Union Square Business Improvement District. Although a born New Yorker, he was a third-generation Nebraskan, a graduate of Lincoln's public schools and of the University of Chicago. Passing the Society of Actuaries Fellowship exams, he joined the Woodmen of America, a life insurer in Lincoln, where he moved up to be the Chief Actuarty and head of life insurance operations.

Returning to New York City some 20 years later, he came to Guardian Life Insurance Company of America on Union Square in 1973, as a senior vice president and chief actuary, progressing up to executive vice president by 1977. In May 1980 he was elected president of the company and became Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer in 1985.

Always very active in Union Square and its surroundings, he became the first President of the 14th Street-Union Square BID (Business Improvement District), the first such organization in NYC and the prototype for 60 more. Union Square and 14th Street were disastrously run down in those days, with drug dealers and prostitution in the park and in small hotels of neighboring streets, and the BID, organized to improve sanitation and security, with its own guards and trash collectors, was very material in the rebirth of the area.

John C. Angle retired from Guardian Life in 1989, but remained a director until the end of 1998. During his tenure Guardian Life expanded to three regional home offices, and in the late 1990s, for lack of local expansion space, the Union Square headquarters had to move to Hanover Square downtown.

As told by the BID’s former executive director, Robert Walsh, now NYC’s Commissioner of Small Business Services Department, John Angle was one of the three men directly responsible for the rebirth of Union Square as a vital residential, commercial and restaurant area and a major tourist destination. After moving into a W. 11th Street residence in the 1970s, he joined the Fifth Avenue Association, and, with Charles Luce, chair of Con Ed and John Everett, president of The New School, started the cleanup initiative of the Union Square area, by first organizing Sweet 14, a merchant-supported sanitation and security organization, which evolved into the 14th Street-Union Square Local Development Corporation, later adding the BID. The local initiatives soon spread throughout the city, aiding the city government in raising New York’s quality of life, recalls ex-Mayor Ed Koch, a strong supporter of the BIDs.

Dr. Jonathan Fenton, ex-President of New School and now President of the MacArthur "Genius" Fund, adds that John Angle was instrumental in creating the BID and LDC. He had a vision for a vibrant neighborhood that respected its great tradition and embraced a vibrant future. He helped restore Union Square as a meeting place for people of all backgrounds, a safe space for play, reading and reflection, discussion and debate. He gave energy to the commercial renaissance of 14th street while nurturing long standing businesses that drew people from all over the City.,His ability to bring people together forged two organizations that represent the best of private initiative and public purpose.

Sweet 14 and its successor neighborhood revival activities led to the Greenmarket, Zeckendorf Towers and Mays Department Store constructions and the arrival of quality grocery and retail facilities that make Union Square a major visitor destination. The organization has since evolved into the Union Square Partnership.

John Angle was also prominent in industry affairs, as the chairman of the Life Office Management Association, a director of the Health Insurance Association of America, the American Council of Life Insurance, the Life Insurance Council of New York and the Society of Actuaries.

A prolific author of articles for professional journals, after retirement John Angle published Probe, an industry newsletter. He was also responsible for establishing Guardian's archives, leading to a scholarly textbook, The Guardian Life Insurance Company of America, 1860 to 1920: A History of a German-American Enterprise, by Anita Rapone.

Following his retirement from Guardian in 1988, John and Catherine Angle returned to their family home, Lincoln, Nebraska where they quickly resumed their active role in community affairs. In 1995 John chaired a task force appointed by the president of the University of Nebraska. The report of the task force later came to be known as the Angle Report. He was also president of the Nebraska Art Association and of the Friends of the Libraries at the University of Nebraska at Lincoln.

Both John and Catherine Angle served on the Council of Visitors of the School of Arts and Sciences, and were trustees of the Nebraska Trails Foundation, members of the Friends of Chamber Music, Friends of the Opera and of the Meadow Lark Society,and founders of the College of Fine and Performing Arts. The Angles have also endowed two professorships at the University of Nebraska.

With all this, the Angles retained a major interest in New York City activities, returning to stay every year. They stimulated a music scholarship in the Nebraska University for New York students, and, conversely, were active in pushing the career of Joba Chamberlain, a Native American and a UN baseball star, towards the pitching staff of New York Yankees.

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

In Edward K. Kane, corporate lawyer, advocate of life insurance policyholder rights and a theorist of the mutuality principle in insurance, died on Sunday September 21 2008, at the age of 79, after a brief illness. A local resident, to the readers of this page he was known as the Old Curmudgeon (OC), a stern conservative commentator of Manichaean black and white opinions.

Even among his friends, few knew that this son of a working class family in Yonkers, then a carpet shop town, had started his career in the building trades a plumber’s assistant, and became the shop stewart of a plumbers’ apprentices’ union local. But he had a congenital arm problem that made physical labor difficult. Meanwhile, main local employers, the carpet mills, were fleeing Yonkers. So, the family rallied with help, and was able to enter Manhattan College, graduating in 1951.

He started work as a claims approver at Guardian Life Insurance Company of America, then at 50 Union Square, now the L Hotel, in off-hours overcoming his physical handicap by playing basketball (his semipro group played in a beer-keg league, where teams sometimes hired Celtics pros for $20, to win crucial games), pitching slow-ball softball, and hitting golf balls cross-handedly in match games. But his real métier was logic, and arguing at work and in bars with friends he decided on a law career, entering the Fordham Law Sthool at night, graduating at the top in three years. He joined the legal staff at Guardian, and from Claims progressed to Policy Services, helping install an advanced computerized administration system. When the Corporate Counsel office became available he accepted it.

Meanwhile, Guardian Life in 1963 acquired a new neighbor, soon to be the legendary Max’s Kansas City, an artists bar and restaurant, named by Joel Oppenheimer,(1930-88), a poet of the Black Mountain school tradition and Ed’s highschool friend. Ed became an after-work habitué, exchanging drinks and supplying free legal advice about loft conversions and family problems to Pop artists and writers, such as Dawson Fielding (1930-2002), and Andy Warkol’s superstars, As the scene shifted to rock, Ed stopped patronizing MKC and played more golf. The OC was always a tough golf competitor, playing the psychological game better than anyone else. He was a member of the Board of the venerable St. Andrews Club in Westchester, and was buried wearing their red colors.

Determination , denial of obstacles, logic, talent and straight talk carried Ed Kane to the Board of Directors of Guardian and a dozen related companies and industry organizations, where he asserted the rights of policyholders and advised against venturesome enterprises. In life insurance, the straight flat-premium ordinary life policies pay a higher that current claims-determined premiums in early years, called reserves, which are invested to subsidize the higher claims in later years. The above is governed by strict NY state insurance laws. T his does not succeed in all environments, which accounts for AIG putting at risk the reserves of all their insurance coverages by going broke with insuring swaps of sub-prime real estate bonds, and endangeting the world’s economy.

Being a bachelor, Ed Kane devoted a lot of effort an money to his Guardian fanily, supporting, with hundreds and thousands of dollars, an employee Welfare Trust, established long ago (Guardian Life dates back to 1860, and has always had the reputation of being policyholder-minded and paternalistic). The fund was renamed the Edward Kane Guardian Life WelfareTrust in 2005, when he retired and turned to consulting. In family life, Ed Kane gave back freely for the help received, in scholarships and home-financing. He was on the boards of several charities, helping with both funds and caveats. Protection of policyholder and beneficiary funds against the lures of investing in risk- related opportunities has been the thrust of his advice.. In organizations of the insurance industry, he was a strong advocacate of the mutual, policyholder-owned company, where all earnings are returned to the premium-payer, without having to pay dividends to stockholders.

Sadly, due to financial turmoils, only four strong life insurers have retained their mutual status. Such stalwarts a Metropolitan., Pridential and Equitable have sold their future earnings for additional capital provided by stockholders, with limited success in insurance. It is indeed sad that we have to take the opportunity of the death of a conscience-driven conservative investment advisor to issue warnings about all the opportunists who have ruined our and the world’s economies by having counsciously driven a modest population-growth motivated economy into a hellhole, for which generations of our children will pay, by reduced living standards. America, and the world , has been ruined by smartass profiteers, who should be punished by a lot worse than the loss of their employment umbrella benefiting the economy, As to saving the economy,Ed Kane’s advice is no longer available.