Looking Ahead

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis





This review of President Barack Obama’s agenda for 2009 was precipitated by Alan J. Kuperman’s NY Times op-ed on Christmas Eve, “There’s only one way to stop Iran" which gave your reader an awful jolt. Merry Christmas, bomb Iran. Ugh!



Granted, the stop nuclear bomb development talks have broken down; this UTexas professor who heads an obscure Nuclear Proliferation Prevention Program in collaboration with a Nuclear Control Institute feels that President Obama's plan to move the enriched uranium to Russia for control, and to feed the nuclear research plant (Natanz) as needed only facilitates proliferation. Therefore, the impasse gives the US a good chance to stop the risky process by bombing. He sees President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad facilitating terrorism already, and wants to bomb Iran's plants, with surgical precision , to minimize civilian damages, and to foster the anti-government groups.



To begin, his argument regarding the Iranian masses rising against their government following the bombings by US is nonsense. Most of the 70 million Iranians like US, but they are patriotic, and the inescapable civilian deaths would strengthen Ahmadinejad. Conquering a country nearly one-fifth the size of US with air power is impossible, and we cannot maintain a third territorial war. As to arming terrorists, the controller of Iran's nuclear activities is the Supreme Ayatollah, and he has not armed Taliban, their natural Sunni enemy, and has kept Hamas and Hezbollah at bay. The controlled development of Iran's research plant is still in the works, and may be feasible, with Turkish assistance. The death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri may have left a positive legacy (before passing away, he apologized for the 1979 Iranian seizure of the US Embassy).



What prompted the NY Times into publishing this threat? Did they think that intimidating Iran would be a deal-maker? As Ahmadinejad is concerned, it would be more of a spur to his rabble-rousing rhetoric, which has already caused an experimental Iranian militia occupation of the most productive Iraqi oil well, on 12/18/09, and two more within a week? Maybe Ahmadinejad, with his End of Days mentality, is looking for an armed conflict? Maybe the Ayatollah is already wise to it, and internally maneuvers to hold the troublemaker President down? All this indicates for the US to be cautious, and not rile the spirits. The NY Times, and John McCain, another sometime bombing advocate, should hold back.



Going on with the review, the health program. The Senate Democratic bill, jerry-rigged to satisfy all 60 Democratic members, will, with all its warts (including the shameless extortions of Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson), cover 30 million of the uninsured, and will, by 2019, give health insurance 94% of citizens and legal residents below the Medicare age, well ahead of the 84% currently insured. The Congressional Budget office estimates that the deficit will be reduced by $132 billion in the next decade, more later, and an independent commission will add other cost saving elements (e.g. tort reform), free of lobbyist influences. Small businesses will be given tax breaks.



The health insurers will have to keep their administrative expenses and profits to 15 cents per premium dollar on group cases, 20 for individual cases, and d will accept all comers; also stop imposing lifetime limits on benefits and be restricted in specifying annual limits. The public option to compete with the private plans was lost, and the alternative is a couple of private plans supervised by a government agency, currently administering death benefits for federal employees, a weaker option. Banning coverage of abortion expenses by health plans sold on the new exchanges, allowing buying separate policies is another lame alternative. The plans leave open the chance of huture improvement.



Merging the Senate and House bills will be a bear; House wants a tax surcharge on incomes over $500,000 ($1 million for couples), Senate will tax high-limit employer plans and increase Medicare payroll charges for incomes over $200,000 (couples $250,000).



The saddest part is the withdrawal of the Republicans from participation in the health plans, or any other initiatives of national interest. The risk is that the two party system is endangered. The Democratic Senator extortionists are a legal abomination, and the Republicans praying for the death of Senator Robert Byrd to kill the 60 vote majority are a moral one.



The rescued banks, such as Goldman Sachs, have been found to have packaged subpar housing bonds and peddling them to clients, then selling the bonds short. Betraying consumer confidence should be actionable. Jail the creeps!



Copenhagen was a very limited success, better than the nothing it could have turned out to be. Some $30 billion aid in the next three years, $100 billion by 2020, to help underdeveloped countries, is ¼ of the amount requested; however, some of the small countries’ demands bordered on extortion. Next year, better results in Mexico.



Real state prices are beginning to hold; the repossess rate of mortgaged properties is still excessive particularly among the black low-pay population, and excess TARP funds should be applied in relief.



President Obama, stay well and keep going!



Wally Dobelis and the staff of T&V wish a Happy New Year and good health to all readers.

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis







Rushing through the Stuyvesant Square East Park on a mid-December Monday, I ran into Christy Dailey, our NYCDPR gardener until a year ago, driving a tiny park-suitable pickup truck, loaded with bags and bags of tulip bulbs. I suggested that our park now has more bulbs than Holland, which was disputed, but it was impressive anyway. Is it Obama money at work?

Also, met the new gardener, Gosha Mosiej, another young energetic woman who speaks of also planting quantities of daffodils, muscari and snowdrops, and has big plans of renewal. A third young woman, Teresa Flores, the Park and Recreation Manager for the entire Manhattan, just happened to come by, checking on the holdup in the planting process, and clued me in further, about rebuilding the water supply and changing the fountain in the West Park, which was spurting water straight-up, into a more picturesque spray, and other renovations that do not change the landmarked character of the old historic park.



They are happy to work with the organizations that look after the Park. The oldest is Stuyvesant Park Neighborhood Associations (SPNA), est. 1968, to support the Park’s needs. Address: www.neighborhoodlink/StuyvesantPark/html, and POBox 1320, NY 10276. Its founder and President is Rosalee Isaly, and SPNA has an annual street fair, contributing about $8,000 to the Park’s budget, and has a tax deductible status. Some 30 ytears ago SPNA raised funds to restore the Park's historic fence, and was material in establishing the Stuyvesant Square Historic District and protecting its values. The new group, Stuyvesant Square Community Alliance, est. 2006, President Phyllis Mangels, has the objective of facilitating improvement of the Park and providing events that bring people together. SSCA has an official Facebook site.



This may be a good time to review the history of Stuyvesant Square Park, a gift from old pegleg Director General’s great-great grandson, Peter Gerardus Stuyvesant, who deeded it to NYC in 1836, (He also gave the land for St. George’s Church in 1846.) After his accidental drowning at Niagara Falls in 1847, nephews Gerard Stuyvesant and Hamilton Fish developed the property, building the surrounding houses, and when the city left the parks neglected, the powerful Fish (he was Governor of NYS, then Senator and US Secretary of State) forced the city to evict the squatters and their pigs. The longest free-standing historic fence was built around the parks, and SPNA raised $500,000 or so to restore the western one in 1980s; alas the eastern one is still in need.



All the neighborhood parks, including Union Square, Madison Square, Gramercy and Stuyvesant Town, are properly celebrating the holiday season, with Christmas trees and menorahs, and carolers are gathering for the celebrations. On the more commercial side, the throngs of shoppers on 14th Street obviously deny the existence of a recession, and the holiday market in Union Square Park (closing December 24) has 120 booths offering decent gift items - it is my source for scarves and Scandinavian winter hats.



If the parks are ready for the winter, are the rest of us? The threat of a sudden heavy snowstorm on Sunday 12/20 brought masses of shoppers to the supermarkets on Saturday, selling out such items as jumbo eggs, canned soups and roasted chicken. That was wise shopping, since by 8:15 AM on Sunday there were no more flakes in the air, the snow was down, up to a foot high. Streets were empty, except for a lonely dog walker or two, and there were no footprints in front of food stores. The only sound was the clatter of apartment-house ice-removal equipment. The streets showed no trace of snow shoveling trucks having passed through, and eventually a garbage truck with a front shovel appeared on 16th Street, traveling east. Parked cars showed no signs of people trying to move them, and the ordinarily traffic- heavy Third Avenue was still fully snow- covered, with only a narrow track on the northbound side showing though the asphalt . The very spotty southbound traffic moved gingerly on the west side of the avenue, fearful of slipping, and rolled into crossings at a crawl. Only 14th Street was snow- free, probably because of the massive bus traffic crushing the icy snow surfaces.



By 11 AM Third Avenue sidewalks had been swept, people were gingerly walking on the pavements, more so when crossing the snowy side streets. The occasional sounds of snow shovels clacking on the sidewalks were still the loudest noises in this ordinarily siren-dominated world. Northbound traffic was moving more freely, , while the southbound cars still crawled , buses seemed rare, and trucks even more so, and the light traffic still had not managed to break up the snow and ice and cut through to the asphalt. The sun, having partly broken through the white cloud cover, was shining on the white beautiful rooftops, promising slushy streets to come, to the relief of those of us who fear falls on black ice.



By 4 PM the street snow had been cleared. There’s still hope for humanity's survival.

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis






The phrase about Afghanistan being the Graveyard of Empires has been overused, but it pays to consider it, in the current atmosphere following President Barack Obama’s agreement to add 30,000 American troops to the current US and NATO commitment.

Why the commitment, to begin with? Well, we know that Obama considers this a just war, against terrorism and Al Qaeda, the organization directly responsible for the 9/11/2001 unprovoked murder of some 3,000 American civilians. No matter how irresponsibly the Bush war leaders handled their December 2001 attack against the refuge of Osama bin Laden and his Taliban friends, the Democrats have inherited the war, and will honor their responsibility for the Afghans who support us. There’s also the backlash in loss of prestige throughout the world; we would lose much of the good will Obama has fostered. not to speak of the respect of and for the US armed forces. Further, withdrawal would endanger the fragile power of Pakistan’s government, and put at risk its nuclear arsenal that might fall into the hands of Taliban-friendly rulers.



How did we get into such dangerous territory? Well, Secretary of Defense Douglas Rumsfeld and his military commander , Gen. Tommy Franks, in December 2001 did use only a tiny contingent of Special Forces at Tora Bora to pursue bin Laden, his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri and the Taliban leader Mullah Omar, allowing them to escape into Pakistan. Their subsequent excuse - that it was done for the purpose of avoiding having too many American soldiers in Afghanistan that would create an anti-US backlash and foster a widespread insurgency - was not believable, and has fueled suspicions of their motives. That was a time when US had the full support of most of the world, all NATO countries and even Iran, and Bushites frittered it away over a period of seven years, allowing a corrupt government and heroin-producing warlords. As people lost faith in the American-promised reform, the Taliban insurgents returned...

Actually, the Graveyard of Empires simile really favors US, compared to previous conquerors. Alexander the Great, the Mongols, Genghis Khan and Tamerlane, and the Moguls were universally hated, as were the British Empire’s soldiers. The Communist revolution of 1978 and the USSR invasion with a force of 100,000 had the support of perhaps 5% of the educated population, and was defeated with the material aid of the US. Our December 2001 invasion came on the heels of a bloody takeover by the ultra-Islamist Talibans, with a heavy-handed attack on civil rights, such as they were, and education, art, and particularly, a demeaning of women’s position in society. Even now, some 60 % of Afghanistan’s population, such as the Usbek and Tajik people are anti Taliban, and it is among the 10 million Pashtuns that the radical Islamists find their strength.



The American command, Generals Petraeus and McChrystal and Admiral Mullen, recognize the need for a peaceful diplomatic solution rather than the impossible military victory in a war with invisible guerillas, and the American forces are being trained in conduct that involves socializing, collaboration with the locals rather than brute force. A longer continued presence, beyond July 2011 if necessary, is offered to Afghans, to encourage participation and discourage fear of a Taliban takeover after 2011. This policy counters Vice President Biden’s approach, of concentrations of Americans at strategic points, with air attacks on enemy villages.



The air war, when causing civilian casualties, is the killer policy that stands in the way of civilian collaborations, says Gregg Mortenson, who has become a civilian philosophical godfather to the success of this war. A son of missionaries and a mountain climber, he found the lack of education in North Pakistan primitive villages, particularly among women, the most destructive problem threatening peace and human progress, and started a foundation, Central Asia Institute, to build schools, with donations from Silicon Valley. His slogan,” If you educate a boy, you educate an individual; a girl educates an entire community,” led to building of schools, emphasizing women’s education that entailed the full collaboration of village elders, local workers and even Taliban converts. This effort began in 1993, and by now he has built 60 schools in Pakistan and Afghanistan, none burned by Taliban protesters, because entire communities stand behind the effort. One of his students has founded a clinic that has cut pregnant women’s death rate from 25% to zero in her village. Mortenson, with David Oliver Relin in 2006 wrote “Three Cups of Tea”, that has become a study text in schools US and world-wide, and required reading among US military members and command members in the Far East. This policy has been successful for 17 years and appears to have been accepted by US commanders. Afghanistan, before 1978 had a positive balance of trade, as a leading producer of fruit and nuts, before the heroin explosion. Can Obama succeed? Mortenson the successful believer thinks so.



Wally Dobelis and the staff of T&V wish our readers a Happy and Healthy Christmas, Chanukah and Kwanzaa Holiday Season! And here's some good news, the greening of the neighborhood goes on: The Christmas tree in Gramercy Park now uses LED candles, to save energy.

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis


Our neighborhood can be proud of its musical heritage; with at least two venues unique to the US. We spoke last month of Peoples Symphony Concerts. Slightly older, founded in 1894, is the Third Street Music School Settlement, now at 235 East 11th Street, just west of 2nd Avenue. This is the oldest community school of the arts in the US, not just for music but also dance, visual arts instruction and early childhood training. Its faculty of more than 125 teaching artists share a commitment to excellence and professionalism, and many possess advanced degrees from the world's leading conservatories and art schools. With training ranging from Western classical music to jazz, rock and beyond, many are actively pursuing their performing and composing careers.



As part of the mid-19th century settlement movement , transplanted from Great Britain, young university graduates "settled" in New York's poor and immigrant communities, to improve the children’s quality of life, Third Street originally employed live-in social workers who gave baths to the children along with their musical lessons.. Third Street still serves a large immigrant community, and nearly 75% of its 4,000 annual students receive some sort of financial assistance or subsidized tuition, both at the main school and through its public school partnerships.



Most fun for the community are the 250 free-to-the public performances that the faculty, guest artists and students offer each year. The concerts take place in the small auditorium, with a little group of portable chairs in the center, and a red carpet-covered arena of some five rows of informal seating along the walls, holding an estimated 150 attendees. The room is dominated by two massive Steinway concert grand pianos.



We attended one of the most enjoyable piano concerts in the Artist Performance Series 2009-10, scheduled for every Friday, at 7:30 PM, from October through May. Our starting performer was Rosemary Caviglia, chair of the Piano department, and a life-long student of J. S. Bach’s

keyboard works, who gave a bravura rendition of his Italian Concerto that tested the acoustics of the room, much affected by the heating and ventilation devices in its ceiling. . Dr. Caviglia continued with Frederic Chopin’s Ballade No.3 in A-flat Major, which she explained to the Suzuki-trained youth part of the audience as a musical fairytale, and rendered it with a much softer musical palette.



The stars for the adult audience, though, were Esther Lee Kaplan and Margaret Mills, a virtuoso piano duo that played a transcription of Maurice Ravel’s La Valse for two pianos, written by the composer. If you do not remember La Valse, it is composed to be like a Viennese waltz but faster, with a very nervous undertone, producing an image of dancers performing in a hurry, while checking their watches. In the two-piano version these images are exaggerated even more, with the two pianos creating a fast-running fog of sounds, minor ranges building the undertone of despair. From this miasma the waltz theme emerges, clarifying slowly but surely, to end on the same tone of despair. Sitting practically on top of the pianos, the listener /watcher gets a marvelous perspective that his counterpart in a concert hall is denied. You see the theme player, Esther Lee Kaplan, stressed but steady, moving forward with the main score, while Margaret Mills, the sure-handed support, fills in with glissandos, rapid music sequences and barrages of notes, hardly seeing Esther Lee but anticipating her precise placements and never failing, in those 1/100 of a second matched moves. It is an audio/visual thrill, like watching a perfect sports event. I am not sure which sports analogy fits, maybe a Jeeter double-play repeated over and over, or a beach volleyball game, where the slammer rises at the perfect moment and place , anticipating a perfectly posited ball. Ladies, you should really make a close-up video!



We have heard the two concert pianists for years, both as parents of a student and students ourselves, and the thrill persists. This is not to minimize the solo performance of Esther Lee Kaplan, who started the after-intermission concert part with three fiery mazurkas by Chopin, Ops 17, 24 and 7, her soft touch and deft control presenting no endangerment to the ceiling fixtures. She sowed pearls of music in renditions of Chopin's Waltz in E-minor (posthumous) and Polonaise No.2 in E-major by Frederic Liszt, another master of the outer parameters of the instrument.



If this endorsement of Third Street concerts as sports events has reached you, consider the balance of the free (repeat, free) Artist Performance Series 2009-10:

12/11 Sibylle Johner, cello, and the Damocles Trio; 12/18 Tatyana Sirota, piano; 1/8 Marc Ponthus, piano; 1/15 Jose Pietri-Coimbra, violin/voice, with Francisco Miranda and Michiyo Morikawa, piano: 1/22 Shanda Wooley, cello and Frederica Wyman/Nathaniel LaNasa, piano; 1/29 Amelia Hollander violin and Sasha Papernik piano et al; 2/5 Chamber Music faculty; 2/12 Nnenna Ogwo, piano; 2/19 Nadav Lev, guitar; 2/26 Lee Feldman, Eddy Kronengold and Elinor Amlen, piano and voice; 3/5 Susan Friedlander, flute, et al; 3/12 New Music faculty perform 20th/21st century music; 3/19 Hugh Sam, piano, also Mary Lou Francis, Margaret Mills (you know that name!), singers and strings: 3/26 Roger Peltzman, piano, et al; 4/9 Noel Kirkwood, piano and composition; 4/16 Vanessa Fadial and friends, piano; 4/23 David Moreno, guitar et al; Art Show opening; 4/30 Paul Shaw, piano; 5/7 Maureen McDermott, cello and Anne-Marie McDermott, piano