Looking Ahead

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis





Dr. Paranoia wrtes about meeting an Israeli visitor:

“Explain to me this tea party again? Is it related to the Boston party in 1770s” asked our Israeli visitor, a retired government man now in US for a seminar.

“Sort of,” I said, and continued explaining the popular anger, as President Obama’s inherited problems escalated – the sub prime bonds into a bank crisis into bailout, the two wars into expanding into revolts in Pakistan, the Iranian and South Korean nuclear situations, the domestic joblessness growing, and his own health system not moving well. And the budget, and domestic Moslems’ clash. The effort to bring about a peace in Israel seemed hopeful, but it will be domed, when Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu terminates the agreement to stop new construction in the West Bank settlements, scheduled on 9/29.

“But you know there’s no chance for peace, the people in Gaza are Hamas,” the visitor picked up. I was surprised, this is a man whom we know well for more than two decades, a Meretz and Labor party left of center secular voter, strongly in favor of the two country solution. For years he saw a peaceful solution, recognizing that the Palestinians of Gaza and the West Bank were building houses and developing middle class existences, led by the secular Fatah, until the Hamas intruders arrived, and the First Intifada riots in 1989 broke the pattern.



I protested, drawing on the history of Palestinians, a more educated and Westernized population whose members emigrated and became teachers and business leaders all throughout the Maghreb, from Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia into Jordan and Saudi Arabia , and whose refugees, under the Fatah leadership, might be more amenable to peaceful solutions.

He disputed that, indicating that over time the Hamas thinking has hardened and the group has grown a lot, pointing to the Gaza surrender, Israel’s losses in Lebanon and the US withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan as events that have increased the Arab radical’s expectations of eventually eradicating Israel. Many peaceful and progressive Moslems have become solid Hamas disciples. My pointing out that Egypt and Jordan still favor a peace plan did not help, as long as the Palestinian refugees’ return and sharing of Jerusalem remain part of the basic Arab negotiators’ demand. These are anathemas to the Israelis, since the count is 1.5M Palestinians on Gaza Strip and 2.5M on West Bank, vs. 8M Israelis, of which 1.5M are Arab, a population with the potential of instantly overwhelming the Jewish state. Egypt and Jordan have internal difficulties, and will not help absorb the rebellious Palestinians, whose guerillas were kicked out of Jordan in 1970. Egypt will soon have to worry about its own agricultural existence, when Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania will start blocking the headwaters of the Blue Nile.



When I mentioned progressive countries of the MidEast, our Israeli friend brought up Turkey, a secularist state since the Mustafa Kemal Ataturk’s reforms in the 1920s, which is now turning into a Muslim country. It sponsored a Hamas’ led first aid fleet to Gaza four months ago, resulting in bad reputation for Israel. The rising Erdogan/Gul leadership has already taken over the previously progressive army, cut its cooperation with Israel, and is planning another relief fleet; all this despite Turkey’s efforts to join the EU. Or is it because the Europeans’ gradually hardening anti-immigration attitudes, and the EU’s hesitations to admit 70 million Turks? Given the events of the past two decades, when Israel gradually surrendered its advantages, only to find that these compromises hardened Hamas’ resistance to accept Israel’s existence, our visitor asked why it is so difficult for Americans to accept Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s unwillingness to extend the 10-month moratorium for new construction in tWest Bank settlements beyond the September 26th deadline, or the Fatah’s unwillingness to continue the peace talks without the moratorium. Is there really a chance for peace, if the more reasonable Fatah will not accept any compromise without the rights to return and the sharing of Jerusalem? Even in 2000, when during the President Clinton’s sponsored Camp David 2000 negotiations PM Ehud Barak was wiling to surrender 98% of the West Bank, the powerful Palestinian Authority’s chairman and Fatah’s leader Yasir Arafat pulled out, for fear of retaliation by his Palestinian followers. Can his meeker successor Abu Mazen be expected to be less fearful?



These arguments are familiar, and president Obama knows them. Yet, US continues the peace effort, because of our commitments and also because it is expected of us. Did the Norwegians, sponsors of the Oslo Agreement of 1993 that cost PM Yithzak Rabin his life in 1995, not know the risks when they gave Osama the Nobel Peace Prize? Did they do it because the world’s only hope for stopping the potential universal conflagration that is sometimes called the clash of cultures exists in settling the Israeli /Palestinian conflict, at whatever cost? The perpetual state of war that the Arab world as well as the belligerent Jabotinski faction in Israel (still present, less vocal) accepted as a condition of Israel’s existence (the 2nd Intifada was a Jabotinskian creation) destroying the world’s equanimity as well as keeping the Israelis sleepless. The Israelis are ready for any direction, nuclear conflict not excepted, and many are keeping their German and Polish passports up to date. We just don’t know what this peace negotiation may lead to.



As it turned out, the expiry of Israeli’s construction moratorium on 9/26 did not cause an instant breakup of the peace talks. At this article’s deadline, Abu Mazen is consulting the Arab League. This hesitation also should suggest that the US reexamine its diplomatic toolkit, planning the chess game beyond six moves, with reversals not entirely impossible. How about bringing the water distribution in play, working on dividing the streams feeding /Lake Tiberias between Israel and the West Bank, and using Egypt’s need for US help in the Blue Nile conflict? Can offers of desalinization technology help? Can the bridge or tunnel communication between Gaza and West Bank be explored further? Given the dangers of global warming and the slow course of developing renewable energy, US might consider reversing course on nuclear energy for the Maghreb countries, offering them our support in building nuclear power plants (hey, jobs for Americans, improve our balance of trade!), which may have impact on our relations with Iran, a Persian Shia country surrounded by Sunni Islam League Arabs, existing in an internal dichotomy between acquisition and defense? Can the re-secularization of Syria contribute to peace? How about working with King Abdullah of Saudi, in bringing the Wahhabi-exporting princes in check, in their internal concerns about Shias in the oil region, in keeping al Qaeda and Hamas controlled, and on the refugee return and shared Jerusalem as prerequisites for peace. There are lots of strategies still available, if the US and the world want peace badly enough.

Labels: Ataturk, Dr. Paranoia, Mahmadinejad, Netanyahu

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis





Let me start with best wishes for ST/PCV people, more peaceful days, now that Manhattan State Court Judge Richard Lowe has told Pershing Square Cap Management and Winthrop Realty that their attempted foreclosure of the $3B property, based on their $300M share, bought for $45M or 1 cents on the dollar, cannot take place unless they produce the $3.7B owed the senior lenders on the property (that includes interest).

Further, my apologies for pessimism in last week’s article in which I doubted that the well-ensconced NYS senators who gave a bad name internationally to our dysfunctional legislature, would be uprooted. Both Pedro Espada Jr. and Hiram Monserrat lost, two-to-one, to their reform opponents. My best wishes also to Congresswoman Carolyn B. Maloney, and State Senator Eric Schneiderman, the latter winning in the Democratic race for attorney general. As for the Republican, actually tea party candidate Carl P. Paladino beating Rick A. Lazio for Governor, one can only wonder whether the people could possibly sustain this “mad as hell” attitude towards Albany, once it becomes evident that the new party’s program involves privatizing Social Security, and cutting health benefits.



This health benefit problem come to mind as I took my annual trip up 1st Avenue , on the articulated bus, at 7:30 AM, to the 72nd Street NYU-Cornel hospital world. The local M15 at 17th Street was overcrowded; nevertheless, two wonderful ladies offered me their seats. Despite a stop every two blocks or so, the double- sider moved fast and emptied easily at Veterans’ and Bellevue, where the hospital workers rushed off to their duties. The rest of the way was school children’s world, with mothers and au pairs holding them in firm grasp, and then another hospital worker crowd in the ‘60s and ‘70s. One can only admire the upgraded travel conditions we the elderly in NYC enjoy, with wheel-chair entrants and exits handled almost automatically, the up-and –down platform movements taking less than a minute. This was particularly evident with walker- armed passengers. The whole 55-block trip took less than 40 minutes, not bad, considering that M15 is NYC’s busiest line, 60K passengers a day.



Alas, my trip through the MRI machine was not upgraded since last year, the same banging and hammering, perhaps even more intense than before. To reward myself, I indulged in a visit to Sotheby’s Galleries on York Avenue, in time to see the preparations for an auction of South-Asian modern art. The canvases showed an attractive mix of oriental motives with influences of 20th Century European Modern styles, and the estimated prices in the catalogue ranged around $200,000. Upon questioning, an expert suggested that Asian modern art is the next direction in collecting, but would not guess about the market influences of the new wealthy collectors in India and China.



Enriched in knowledge, I took the 2nd Avenue M15 back, to find yet another improved bus style, the low floor Orion model. This bus did not need the elevated platform, the stepless entrance was at the level of the sidewalk, and wheel-chair travelers just rolled on and off. The interior of each bus unit has four high closet-like boxes housing the wheels of the vehicle, interspersed between seats. Fascinated, I looked to see how sidewalk height differences were solved, but did not find any, drivers parking along the avenue had left the bus stops uncluttered, and the vehicle could pull up directly next to the sidewalk where it mattered. This trip also took about 40 minutes.



Our next New York sightseeing bus trip adventure led to the High Line, the city’s elevated park. We were hoping that the gardens had survived the tornadoes without damage, and are glad to report that the trees are as upright as before, taller because of growth.



The 14th Street cross-town bus took us to 10th Avenue, where it turns west, towards Chelsea Peers. The M14 stop is near the new 14th Street High Line elevator, and we walked south from it, enjoying the view of the white market umbrellas at 13th Street and 9th Avenue. At the end of Section 1, at Gansewoort Plaza, is the High Line nursery, with the roofs of uniform plant sheds sporting cheerful nonsense slogans. The care of plants is not nonsense, as shown all the way to 23rd Street, the northern end of this section. Section 2, to 30th Street, is visible from this point, and work is continuing. Section 3, hooking west to 34th Street, continues to be a dream.



What was new to me was a tremendous sundeck, of stacked 2x6s, a dozen layers wide, with New Yorkers sunbathing. Not a high-heel shoe in sight, this is picnic country, and the Chelsea Market at 16th Street (bathrooms are next to the elevator) is just the place to fill your backpack with snacks. The M14 return stop is just down the block from the market’s exit, on 9th Avenue.



The entire High Line continues to be a delight. Not many things in life can be, not even Barnes & Noble, the oasis of rest. I wish the super market magnates would stop trying to reform it, but that is the world of market economics.

Labels: Espada, lazio, Paladino

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis





As you read these lines, the primary of September 14th may be a faint memory, not very tasty. But at least, you may want to compare such results you have noted with the popular opinions reflected here.



Although I was out of New York's life for a good part of August, the city was not out of my life. Good many of the East Europeans we met had visited our East Coast, and questions about the primary came up. Particularly, Congressman Charles Rangel was a subject of discussions.

English-language news in Riga, Latvia, comes from International Herald Tribune, the global edition of New York Times. Although expensive - copies cost well over $4 a day - it provides abridgements, slightly popularized, of the daily paper's articles, tightly packed, with sections identified by page headlines, no paper wasted. Your Paul Krugman and David Brooks columns are there, never fear. For English language TV, in Riga you live on stale CNN International edition, BBC News, and old but still funny BBC serials.

For the less current affairs minded, Baltic Air, a busy Latvian local carrier that brings in Americans to Riga in Boeing 737s via Stockholm, Copenhagen, Warsaw and Frankfurt, publishes a daily paper distributed in hotels, four to eight pages of catchy news stories. It was there that New York primaries came up, with the sensationalist names and lurid tales about Senator Pedro Espada, Jr. of the 33rd SD in Bronx, and his legislator cronies.



The fact that New York Times itself, a paper of discretion and circumspection, in its endorsements would come out and say directly that the best advice regarding voting for NY state legislature would be to vote against anybody who has done time in Albany, is daunting. The dysfunctional Albany has really become an international scandal, not just in the eyes of locals, such as Alan S. Chartock, the chairman of the Northeast Network of Public Radio, who for years has revealed its disgraces. The Times particularly applied its advice to the State Senate, where Espada and his cronies have milked the state funds for fancy titles and fawning office help. He has also depleted his district’s medical clinics for tens of thousands of personal expense and campaign dollars,

The Times does offer endorsements to replace Espada and other current inhabitants of the well-dug-in ethnic local districts, such as Mr. Rangel in the 15th Congressional District, but there is little doubt that the embedded incumbents who have locals indebted to them will come out on top, again.



NYT has no problem with standup legislators such as Senator Liz Kruger of T&V Country, and Eric Schneiderman of Northern Manhattan, whom they endorse, the latter as Attorney General. It is hoped that he, with Governor-to-be Andrew Cuomo, may form an effective reform force, and use the powers of his office to oust the well dug-in imbedded legislators seemingly impervious to legitimate political pressures. As for Republican candidates for Governor, the newspaper shows its anger for Carl Paladino, the upstart politician from Buffalo, who dedicated $10 million of personal funds to be elected. His tea party campaign has been nasty, referring to Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver as”Hitler" and an "Antichrist," and showing Africans dancing as "Obama Inauguration Rehearsal." This entire ugly environment ties in with the Newt Gingrich campaign , supported by radical rightists and other extremists who go well beyond being birthists in depicting the President as a foreigner, primitive, socialist and Muslim, and the Florida minister who was about to start a war by threatening to burn Koran texts. Paladino is also an angry opponent to the Muslim memorial site near the World Trade Center, and may be connected with the nativist and religious Christian groups that are behind attacks on Muslims. New York Times endorses ex-Congressman Rick Lazio, a rational politician, in the Republican primary for Governor...



In the 14th Congressional District, the Times supports the 18-year incumbent, Carolyn Maloney, who has a record as stalwart fighter for women’s rights (e.g. wearing a burqua in Congress to speak of lack of women’s rights in the Arab world), working for financial reform (she’s the Chair of the Joint Economic Committee), and for protection for credit card users, and health care for Ground Zero workers. Her opponent, lawyer Reshma Saujani, originally campaigned as a advocate of better treatment for financial institutions, recognizing that NYC depends on the banks and brokerage firms for its life blood, but soon turned to heavy attacks on Congresswoman Maloney’s fundraising relations with the finance industry. Heavy advertising with huge picture postcards and phone calls on both sides was prevalent, and the three Republican candidates were practically unheard of.



The unhappiness of the T&V Country’s people with their state political system is evident, both in print and in conversations. This neighborhood is also exasperated in the fight over ST/PCV’s future. Here the continuation of Espada as the Senate’s Housing Committee chair is opposed, although our endorsement of his opponent in the 33rd SD cannot be expected to cause many ripples in the Bronx. On the other hand, Eric Schneiderman is a tenant advocate, and will be helped by our votes...



As for the NYS Assembly, the Paper of Record recommends voting against the incumbents, across the board. They justify this wholesale condemnation because the parties, particularly, the Democrats, have given some of Albany’s worst legislators a free ride. Ergo, turn the rascals out! I have problems with that, and hope that next year the Times can beat its financial doldrums and devote more time for better analysis,

Wally Dobelis thanks the New York Times, and internet and private sources

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis



Can a city with an unemployment rate of 9.5% (going up) learn anything from another, with the rate at 19%? (going down)? I think so, having spent a week in the capital of Latvia, a country of 2.3 million people, nearly half o them living in Riga, known as the Paris of North Europe. Riga is beautiful, the pavements absolutely clean, with picturesque cobblestone streets, ancient churches and medieval guild buildings, with city fortification ruins dating back to the original Templar Knight founding in 1200s. That was when the heathen Lets, Cours and other Balts were Christianized and put into serfdom. But they survived Polish, Swedish, German and Russian suzerainties, and kept the Hanseatic city intact, until in 1992 the Soviets permitted the rebirth of a free Latvia (born 1919, intermittently occupied by USSR and Germany 1940-92). It is now a World Heritage tourist destination, containing the best Jugendstil (Art Nouveau) examples. In 17th century the forest-rich Duchy of Courland was also Europe’s master builder of ships and acquired colonies in Gambia and Tobago (swallowed up by Britain within decades.)



We were there during the celebration of Riga’s 810th anniversary, with thousands of visitors wandering through the streets, buying food and memorabilia at stands set the cobbled streets .Besides cleanliness, it was remarkable not to see any walking sticks. I worried about the short life span (true), until a distant relative, a remarkable physician and great-grandmother, explained that during the post-WWII Soviet occupation of the Baltics, 1944-1992, no transportation and access aids for the elderly, such as the American ADA , were provided for the elderly, making downtown virtually inaccessible. Now, as part of the recession relief, tramways, streetcars and buses are being slowly equipped. There are even pedestrian traffic signals that count down both walk and wait time, showing seconds remaining.



What about other recession relief? Well, the country, nearly the poorest in the EU, lost 52% of its GDP in 20009, which caused an upset in the election of government and severe teeth-clenching reductions in the pay of civil service employees. Latvians, technologically adept – in 190 40s Riga’s engineers invented the Minox spy camera, eventually distributed by a German firm - are actively doing development work. In my own extended family there is a project of finding worldwide market for a limestone removal chemical that protects bathrooms as well as building pipes, and other enterprising undertakings.



This brings up the entrepreneurial aspects of recession. In the US unemployment is growing, but so are entrepreneurial projects, also often done below the line, off the books, that might spring loose soon. The statistics for such should be available, to counteract to bad “on the books” job news. Come on, Mr. Obama.



What about the working class Latvians? Well, some who have lost jobs in the collapse of the economy due to overspending and exuberant construction work – there’s much unused housing, just like in the US - huddle around their pension earning seniors. A young mother in my extended family, who studied in the US, also has opened an afternoon English Language school. and an 18-yr old found a family connected advertising photographer’s job (she also bakes a promising great tiramisu).



There entrepreneurial efforts will have some effect in this small country trying to attract foreign investment that would take advantage of an educated (99.8% literacy) population. Meanwhile, foreign investors are buying some beach land – west of Riga is Jurmala, a centuries old 30 km beach community, with another less developed 120 km beyond it, of undeveloped white sand beaches, and a Riga Bay with water so salt free, that the legend speaks of a windsurfer lost there, who survived three days drinking sea water.. Traveling the shore road, one finds picturesque small communities, as well as an entrepreneurial fish merchant who has a roadside sign directing travelers to his smoker in the dense woods (important for Europe's oxigen supply), where he comes daily to smoke herring, mackerels and trout, delicious but expensive. Along the road are parked cars, and one sees women and men with small baskets, collectors of chanterelles, a tasty mushroom that springs up after rain, and some opportunistic greenmarket sellers with jugs of the yellow delicacy, fresh tomatoes and peas. The vegetables are good for the diced Rasol salad, a family favorite potato, egg and mixed vegetable creation, in homemade mayo dressing.



Latvia is an expensive country, the currency, lats, is worth $2. Hotel prices are on Euros, worth about $1.25, and prices are quoted in lats. One gets a false sense of security, pricing meals in Riga, until the reasonable meal’s true price is grasped. There are elegant restaurants in the tourist area – Otto Schwartz’s in the Hotel de Rome, Chalk Street Gates (Kalku Varti) where you can spend hundreds, all in sight of the great Statue of Liberty that neither the Soviets nor the Germans dared to pull down. In the commercial center, just past the monument, near the central parks, there is a huge Vermanitis self-service basement, where you fill your tray with choice items at half price, appreciated by all, poor or rich. As for the really poor, there are inventive beggars in the tourist area, posing for money, a gold-painted Greek sculpture and a storybook tramp, and a grandma who spins to her tape-recoded tunes; also appealing children, and street musicians, a girl duo on flute and harp, an accordionist pair, also six gypsy boys in dresses and hats playing American pop (poorly), and outdoor café groups playing old rock (good).



Markets for folkloric goods abound, best values are amber, knit scarves and mittens and linen table cloths. Genuine amber necklaces, product of fossilized pine resin, are certified by the sellers, but look for beauty, not papers. Better priced amber goods are at the Sigulda caves, an hour by car (all parts of Latvia are reachable in day trips) and Turaida, a renovated castle, in the Gauja River Canyon, beautiful hollow park deep below the surface. Another excursion from Riga, southwards, is to Rundale Palace, the summer home of Tsarina Anna’s , (former Duchess of Kurland) favorite, the Ernst Johan von Biron ducal residence , built by Francesco Bartholomeo Rastrelli (1700-72), the Italian architect who also built the Hermitage Winter Palace in St Petersburg for Elizabeth, daughter of Tsar Peter the Great, who Europeanized Russia in the early 1700s.There is also a da Vinci Code type legend about Peter who divorced and put into a monastery his wife of long years, to marry a former maid of Pastor Ernst Gluck, the translator of the Bible into Latvian. The legend states that Maria Skowronska, later Czarina Catherine I, had overheard Gluck who may have been a secret Knight Templar/Baltic Knight member, discussing the jewels that the Jesus and Mary Magdalene family (Holy Grail) protection group had hidden near Aluksne, another beauty spot, and held marriage as the prize for revealing the hiding place of the treasure. Peter used the jewels to p ay for his palaces in St. Petersburg, and the two surviving of their nine children ascended to the thrones in Russia and France .



Alas, Latvia is also a tragic country. In WWII it 10% of its population died, about 200,000 nationals, fighting or killed by both sides, including 70,000 Jewish Holocaust victims, murdered by German special troops and their local para-military collaborators. The current Jewish population of 10,000 is well established. Another 200,000 Latvians escaped abroad, fleeing Communist terror. Another 50,000-plus were deported to gulags, including 2,000 Jews. No monuments can cover the tragedies.

Labels: Latvia, Riga