Thursday, April 26, 2001
Bloomberg victory forecast
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
Democratic turncoats always win in NYC Mayoralty elections
The question has been asked: what chance does a Democrat such as Michael Bloomberg (or, for this matter, a former Democratic Mayoralty candidate, such as Herman Badillo) have in running for Mayor on the Republican ticket? The answer is that it does not matter, two out of three of his Republican predecessors, Rudolph Giuliani and Fiorello La Guardia, were former Democrats, and the third, John V. Lindsay, became a Democrat.. What matters is whether the electorate will accept the idea that a successful business man can apply his experience in running this city, and whether they will buy into his Corzine-type mantra of incorruptibility, that by spending his own money in the campaign he can be a free man, not beholden to any backers.
The democratic opponents, frontrunner Mark Green and the contenders, Peter F. Vallone, Alan G. Hevesi and Fernando Ferrer, have strong weapons that Bloomberg lacks, experience and political records. Meanwhile they are trouncing each other while trotting out their "I’m more liberal, more law-and-order, pro-choice, pro-child, minority rights, balanced budget, police review and legalization of ferrets" candidature proofs. Bloomberg, possibly not facing a primary, will not have to engage in internecine warfare. He may not have to declare his innermost views and Conservative qualifications until the candidates emerge and debate each other.
T examine Bloomberg’s chances, let’s look at the modern history of mayoralty races. Giuliani (R-L) won in 1993 on his law and order record, with 49 to 46 percent of the vote, against a weakened David Dinkins (D)who was blamed for prolonging the 1991 Crown Heights racial upheaval.. Giuliani, a Democrat until his 1989 run, in the 1994 race continued to back Mario M. Cuomo for Governor, against the Republican George Pataki. That did not hurt him in his own 1997 race against Manhattan Borough President Ruth Messinger (D), which he won on his quality-of-life program, despite incurring many enmities with his headstrong outbursts and lack of compassion .
Coming back to 1989, Dinkins, the candidate of white liberals and minority groups, beat the three-term conservative Democratic Mayor Edward I. Koch in a crowded primary (with Harrison J. Goldin and Richard Ravitch also running), and overcame Giuliani, 48 to 45 percent.
Koch started his Mayoral career in 1977, after a six-participant Democratic primary (with Cuomo, incumbent Abraham D. Beame, Bella Abzug, Percy Sutton and Herman Badillo in the running), and a runoff with Cuomo, handily beating the latter (now on the ballot as a Liberal) and the Republican Roy M. Goodman in the general election .That election had one of the lowest turnouts in modern history, with under 1,400,000 ballots cast .Voters were exhausted by the infighting. The subsequent 1981 election saw Koch winning well, backed by both major parties, against a weak Unity opponent, Frank J. Barbaro. 1985 was another landslide for him, with Carol Bellamy (L) and Diane McGrath (R-C) barely registering on the scale. A mere 1,100,000 New Yorkers bothered to vote.
The voter turnout had started to dip in the 1973 election, to 1,700,000, when the diminutive accountant Beame outscored Badillo in the Democratic runoff, after a severe primary (which also included Albert H. Blumenthal and Mario Biaggi), to pass Blumenthal (L), Biaggi (C) and John J. Marchi (R) in the general election. The voter apathy had to do with the alienation of the working and middle classes resulting from the racial conflicts, strikes and fiscal problems under the stewardship of John Vliet Lindsay.
Lindsay, the congressman from our Silk Stocking District since 1959 (he was succeeded by Koch), turned to Mayoralty politics when Robert F. Wagner ended his three-term career, in 1965. Lindsey, as the Republican, Liberal and Independent Citizens’ candidate, defeated Beame (D) and William F. Buckley Jr. (C), in a general election that attracted 2,600,000 voters. The Democratic primary had also been interesting with Paul R. Screvane and two left-wing Democrats, William Fitts Ryan and Paul O’Dwyer, also in the running.
In the subsequent 1969 poll Lindsay lost the Republican backing to John J. Marchi (R-C) and won as a Liberal-Independent, also beating Mario Procacchino (D-minor parties) by a substantial margin. During the term he changed his allegiance to Democratic.
The three terms won by Robert F. Wagner (1953, 1957,1961) , son of the influential New Dealer, NY senator Robert Ferdinand Wagner, were not marked by party shifts, although they saw the collapse of Tammany Hall, Wagner’s original backer. Angered by the loss of their candidates in the 1958 election, the reform wing of the Democratic party, Herbert Lehman, Eleanor Roosevelt and Wagner, forced the removal of the last sachem, Carmine DeSapio, in the 1961 elections.
Wagner’s predecessor, the stormy Irish immigrant, prosecutor and Tammany stalwart William O’Dwyer (D-American Labor), safely won two elections - 1945 and 1949. In the latter he was opposed by the Communist-inspired Congressman Vito Marcantonio, who took the American Labor party from O’Dwyer. Suspected of crime affiliations, Big Bill resigned subsequent to his election in 1949, and was rewarded by an ambassadorship, to Mexico. His successor, City Council President Vincent Impellitteri, was rejected by all major parties and won the special 1950 election as the candidate of his own Experience party. Charges of incompetence and worse caused his loss in the 1953 primary, and he was rewarded by a judgeship.
As to the causes of the all-powerful Tammany’s downfall, its influence was damaged by the excesses of the dapper Mayor Jimmy Walker (1925, 1929, resigned 1931) The firs modern reformer was Congressman Fiorello H. La Guardia, essentially a New Deal-type populist unwilling to accept the corruption and the control of the bosses of the local Democrats. He ran as a Republican and won the 1933, 1937 and 1941 terms as the candidate of Republican-City Fusion- American Labor and Progressive parties. Arbitrary and impulsive, he cleaned up City Hall and built roads, bridges and public housing incurring substantial public debt.
Looking at the shifts and turns that the candidates and the electorate took in modern elections, it is evident that party affiliation is not the major factor in New York City politics, at least not since Tammany Hall lost its clout. And that is not so long ago, many major players, including Carmine DeSapio, are visibly among us, composing their memoirs as we reminisce of their histories.
If you were confused by last week’s title for this column, it was because a subtitle, Viewing the Vermeer Exhibition at the Met, got lost in the shuffle. Sorry!
Democratic turncoats always win in NYC Mayoralty elections
The question has been asked: what chance does a Democrat such as Michael Bloomberg (or, for this matter, a former Democratic Mayoralty candidate, such as Herman Badillo) have in running for Mayor on the Republican ticket? The answer is that it does not matter, two out of three of his Republican predecessors, Rudolph Giuliani and Fiorello La Guardia, were former Democrats, and the third, John V. Lindsay, became a Democrat.. What matters is whether the electorate will accept the idea that a successful business man can apply his experience in running this city, and whether they will buy into his Corzine-type mantra of incorruptibility, that by spending his own money in the campaign he can be a free man, not beholden to any backers.
The democratic opponents, frontrunner Mark Green and the contenders, Peter F. Vallone, Alan G. Hevesi and Fernando Ferrer, have strong weapons that Bloomberg lacks, experience and political records. Meanwhile they are trouncing each other while trotting out their "I’m more liberal, more law-and-order, pro-choice, pro-child, minority rights, balanced budget, police review and legalization of ferrets" candidature proofs. Bloomberg, possibly not facing a primary, will not have to engage in internecine warfare. He may not have to declare his innermost views and Conservative qualifications until the candidates emerge and debate each other.
T examine Bloomberg’s chances, let’s look at the modern history of mayoralty races. Giuliani (R-L) won in 1993 on his law and order record, with 49 to 46 percent of the vote, against a weakened David Dinkins (D)who was blamed for prolonging the 1991 Crown Heights racial upheaval.. Giuliani, a Democrat until his 1989 run, in the 1994 race continued to back Mario M. Cuomo for Governor, against the Republican George Pataki. That did not hurt him in his own 1997 race against Manhattan Borough President Ruth Messinger (D), which he won on his quality-of-life program, despite incurring many enmities with his headstrong outbursts and lack of compassion .
Coming back to 1989, Dinkins, the candidate of white liberals and minority groups, beat the three-term conservative Democratic Mayor Edward I. Koch in a crowded primary (with Harrison J. Goldin and Richard Ravitch also running), and overcame Giuliani, 48 to 45 percent.
Koch started his Mayoral career in 1977, after a six-participant Democratic primary (with Cuomo, incumbent Abraham D. Beame, Bella Abzug, Percy Sutton and Herman Badillo in the running), and a runoff with Cuomo, handily beating the latter (now on the ballot as a Liberal) and the Republican Roy M. Goodman in the general election .That election had one of the lowest turnouts in modern history, with under 1,400,000 ballots cast .Voters were exhausted by the infighting. The subsequent 1981 election saw Koch winning well, backed by both major parties, against a weak Unity opponent, Frank J. Barbaro. 1985 was another landslide for him, with Carol Bellamy (L) and Diane McGrath (R-C) barely registering on the scale. A mere 1,100,000 New Yorkers bothered to vote.
The voter turnout had started to dip in the 1973 election, to 1,700,000, when the diminutive accountant Beame outscored Badillo in the Democratic runoff, after a severe primary (which also included Albert H. Blumenthal and Mario Biaggi), to pass Blumenthal (L), Biaggi (C) and John J. Marchi (R) in the general election. The voter apathy had to do with the alienation of the working and middle classes resulting from the racial conflicts, strikes and fiscal problems under the stewardship of John Vliet Lindsay.
Lindsay, the congressman from our Silk Stocking District since 1959 (he was succeeded by Koch), turned to Mayoralty politics when Robert F. Wagner ended his three-term career, in 1965. Lindsey, as the Republican, Liberal and Independent Citizens’ candidate, defeated Beame (D) and William F. Buckley Jr. (C), in a general election that attracted 2,600,000 voters. The Democratic primary had also been interesting with Paul R. Screvane and two left-wing Democrats, William Fitts Ryan and Paul O’Dwyer, also in the running.
In the subsequent 1969 poll Lindsay lost the Republican backing to John J. Marchi (R-C) and won as a Liberal-Independent, also beating Mario Procacchino (D-minor parties) by a substantial margin. During the term he changed his allegiance to Democratic.
The three terms won by Robert F. Wagner (1953, 1957,1961) , son of the influential New Dealer, NY senator Robert Ferdinand Wagner, were not marked by party shifts, although they saw the collapse of Tammany Hall, Wagner’s original backer. Angered by the loss of their candidates in the 1958 election, the reform wing of the Democratic party, Herbert Lehman, Eleanor Roosevelt and Wagner, forced the removal of the last sachem, Carmine DeSapio, in the 1961 elections.
Wagner’s predecessor, the stormy Irish immigrant, prosecutor and Tammany stalwart William O’Dwyer (D-American Labor), safely won two elections - 1945 and 1949. In the latter he was opposed by the Communist-inspired Congressman Vito Marcantonio, who took the American Labor party from O’Dwyer. Suspected of crime affiliations, Big Bill resigned subsequent to his election in 1949, and was rewarded by an ambassadorship, to Mexico. His successor, City Council President Vincent Impellitteri, was rejected by all major parties and won the special 1950 election as the candidate of his own Experience party. Charges of incompetence and worse caused his loss in the 1953 primary, and he was rewarded by a judgeship.
As to the causes of the all-powerful Tammany’s downfall, its influence was damaged by the excesses of the dapper Mayor Jimmy Walker (1925, 1929, resigned 1931) The firs modern reformer was Congressman Fiorello H. La Guardia, essentially a New Deal-type populist unwilling to accept the corruption and the control of the bosses of the local Democrats. He ran as a Republican and won the 1933, 1937 and 1941 terms as the candidate of Republican-City Fusion- American Labor and Progressive parties. Arbitrary and impulsive, he cleaned up City Hall and built roads, bridges and public housing incurring substantial public debt.
Looking at the shifts and turns that the candidates and the electorate took in modern elections, it is evident that party affiliation is not the major factor in New York City politics, at least not since Tammany Hall lost its clout. And that is not so long ago, many major players, including Carmine DeSapio, are visibly among us, composing their memoirs as we reminisce of their histories.
If you were confused by last week’s title for this column, it was because a subtitle, Viewing the Vermeer Exhibition at the Met, got lost in the shuffle. Sorry!
# posted by Wally Dobelis @ 4:45 AM 
