Wednesday, January 02, 2002
Dr. Paranoia's New Year forecast of American thinking for 2002w
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
Dr Paranoia suggests that if you think the latest crisis, the conflict between India and Pakistan, is not al-Qaeda’s work, you have not been close to the news. The conflict over the state of Kashmir (60 percent Muslim, joined India during the implementation of the Indian Independence Act of 1947 by decree of Maharajah Hari Singh, who wanted a strong suzerain, to avoid tribal warfare) was the cause of the wars of 1947-48 and 1965, and the skirmish of 1999. Since 1989 Kashmir’s independence-oriented nationalist revolutionaries been sidelined by the religious fanatic al-Qaeda types, the non-native Afghan war veterans based in Pakistan. Unquestionably, the suicide attack on the Indian Parliament was their effort to provoke India’s warlike reaction towards Pakistan, to cause a shift of the latter’s army toward the eastern 1,800 mile Indian border, thus relieving the military surveilance and pressure at the western Afghanistan border on the al-Qaeda and Taliban militants, both inside and outside Pakistan.
The Indians are punishing the Pakistanis for their failure to shut down the terrorist organizations. Their demands aggravate the internal struggle General Musharraf has with the religious fanatics and their Army supporters in conjunction with the Afghan war.. If he accedes to the Indian demands and attempts to destroy the Muslim terrorist organizations hiding under a patriotic pro-Kashmir shield, he risks a revolt in the Army, and the world risks seeing him deposed, and a revolutionary government of Muslim militants running a country with atomic weapons.
This threat of war on part of the Indians presents not only a nuclear risk to the world but also a commercial threat to the US corporations who have outsourced heir computer work and files to South India, Hyderabad, Bangalore and Madras, over the past years of peace. These dollars present substantial relief for the poverty-beset. country of 1,030 million inhabitants. Some corporate expression of concern over potential wartime destruction of vital files and services might help slow down India’s war enthusiasts. Indians are practical people. If Prime Minister Atal Behari Vaypayee has chosen not to recognize that he is being used by al-Qaeda, some of the 136 members of the Anti-Terrorism Coalition might do the world a service by bringing it to his attention, with all due respect. Al-Qaeda’s tactic is the well-practiced "enemy of peace" ploy that has destroyed coexistence negotiations in Israel, year after year. It has been used not only by Islamic Jihad, Hamas and Hezbollah but also by such individuals as a Dr. Baruch Goldstein and the killer of Yitzhak Rabin..
On the other hand, the pressure on General Musharraf to move against internal terrorists might produce real results, as did, apparently, Ariel Sharon’s most recent demands that Arafat close the Palestinian terrorist organizations. The threat that made Arafat move was self-interest, the fact that by inaction he was empowering some rivals and fostering his replacement by a more effective and less corrupt new Palestinian coalition. The same applies to Musharraf, he must move against the internal opponents before they move against him. The world can only hope, and apply economic pressure. Warfare, in the form of a Kosovo-type NATO action, is not justified.
But what are the new rules of warfare? How and when does "the world," (however defined, UN, NATO, the Anti-Terrorism Coalition, or US unilaterally) exercise restraints and retaliate against warring nations that might use atomic weapons? What about use of tactical vs. genocidal weapons? Potential of biological warfare? When and how does the world react to defiant terrorist-fostering countries - Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Sudan, North Korea, Cuba - that disclaim the accusations? What constitutes adequate evidence for preemptive world action? May the world attack terrorist camps of terrorists in certain countries - Indonesia, the Philippines, Yemen - who have settled there against their hosts’ will?
On the battle field, does the Geneva Convention apply in warfare against terror? How does it work with wounded POWs who surrender with live hand grenades strapped to their bodies and threaten to blow up the hospital where they are treated? Should the al-Qaeda POWs be released after the war is over, if the world knows that their fanatic intent is to go back to destroying peaceful governments that they oppose for religious reasons? Should there be WWII-type detention camps, forever? (Incidentally, if the US expects its informants to dig up information at a Guantanamo al-Qaeda detention camp, where the leaders will exercise controls and do heavy indoctrination, think again. Individual confinement may be more productive for deprogramming.). What about terrorists who hide ammunition in churches, mosques, population centers and hospitals, and use civilians as shields for warlike acts? How about those ho use the white flag to ambush negotiators or take hostages? Are warlike acts against such terrorist warfare that incur "collateral damage" to be subject to international court proceedings? Are small Special Forces units acting behind enemy lines to take POWs (think of Senator Bob Kerry and Vietnam)?
Now the NGOs. How does the world deal with educational and medical care institutions, such as Hezbollah, that also serve as breeding and incubator organizations for suicide bombers? What about the charities that serve the same mixed agenda? And the banks, US, Somali and Mafiya, that transfer the funds for the above?
And religion. How does civilization deal with members of clergy who, under the flag off religious freedom, preach intolerance, advocate murder and recruit terrorists? And civilians who do the same under the excuse of free speech?. Should we countenance the use of the Bill of Rights against itself?
In discussing these subjects on the Internet with informed people, the proposed remedies go much against Dr Paranoia’s Four Freedoms- oriented mind, but the world is changing. Proposed actions range from local customs-oriented field justice for terrorist POWs who do not accept the Geneva Convention, appropriate direct retaliation against terrorist individuals, organizations and countries, upon establishing of adequate proof (that can be eventually used in the World Court). It is proposed that denials and token collaboration with the Alliance do not make friends out of terrorist nations. A preemptive strike against Saddam Hussein is suggested, to avoid a potential nuclear disaster when he has his weapon in place, in the style of Israel’s. strike of 1981. We moderates are urged to remember the visions of burning Americans jumping out of the WTC towers, holding hands.
Seeing these strong opinions in print, Dr Paranoia wishes he had his old world back, but "panta res," everything flows, you can never step back into the same river again, as Heraclites of Ephesus recognized 2,500 years ago. As a personal New Year’s resolution, he intends to try to be more patient with people, and to say a kind thing to at least one stranger every day. Happy 2002 to everybody.
Dr Paranoia suggests that if you think the latest crisis, the conflict between India and Pakistan, is not al-Qaeda’s work, you have not been close to the news. The conflict over the state of Kashmir (60 percent Muslim, joined India during the implementation of the Indian Independence Act of 1947 by decree of Maharajah Hari Singh, who wanted a strong suzerain, to avoid tribal warfare) was the cause of the wars of 1947-48 and 1965, and the skirmish of 1999. Since 1989 Kashmir’s independence-oriented nationalist revolutionaries been sidelined by the religious fanatic al-Qaeda types, the non-native Afghan war veterans based in Pakistan. Unquestionably, the suicide attack on the Indian Parliament was their effort to provoke India’s warlike reaction towards Pakistan, to cause a shift of the latter’s army toward the eastern 1,800 mile Indian border, thus relieving the military surveilance and pressure at the western Afghanistan border on the al-Qaeda and Taliban militants, both inside and outside Pakistan.
The Indians are punishing the Pakistanis for their failure to shut down the terrorist organizations. Their demands aggravate the internal struggle General Musharraf has with the religious fanatics and their Army supporters in conjunction with the Afghan war.. If he accedes to the Indian demands and attempts to destroy the Muslim terrorist organizations hiding under a patriotic pro-Kashmir shield, he risks a revolt in the Army, and the world risks seeing him deposed, and a revolutionary government of Muslim militants running a country with atomic weapons.
This threat of war on part of the Indians presents not only a nuclear risk to the world but also a commercial threat to the US corporations who have outsourced heir computer work and files to South India, Hyderabad, Bangalore and Madras, over the past years of peace. These dollars present substantial relief for the poverty-beset. country of 1,030 million inhabitants. Some corporate expression of concern over potential wartime destruction of vital files and services might help slow down India’s war enthusiasts. Indians are practical people. If Prime Minister Atal Behari Vaypayee has chosen not to recognize that he is being used by al-Qaeda, some of the 136 members of the Anti-Terrorism Coalition might do the world a service by bringing it to his attention, with all due respect. Al-Qaeda’s tactic is the well-practiced "enemy of peace" ploy that has destroyed coexistence negotiations in Israel, year after year. It has been used not only by Islamic Jihad, Hamas and Hezbollah but also by such individuals as a Dr. Baruch Goldstein and the killer of Yitzhak Rabin..
On the other hand, the pressure on General Musharraf to move against internal terrorists might produce real results, as did, apparently, Ariel Sharon’s most recent demands that Arafat close the Palestinian terrorist organizations. The threat that made Arafat move was self-interest, the fact that by inaction he was empowering some rivals and fostering his replacement by a more effective and less corrupt new Palestinian coalition. The same applies to Musharraf, he must move against the internal opponents before they move against him. The world can only hope, and apply economic pressure. Warfare, in the form of a Kosovo-type NATO action, is not justified.
But what are the new rules of warfare? How and when does "the world," (however defined, UN, NATO, the Anti-Terrorism Coalition, or US unilaterally) exercise restraints and retaliate against warring nations that might use atomic weapons? What about use of tactical vs. genocidal weapons? Potential of biological warfare? When and how does the world react to defiant terrorist-fostering countries - Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Sudan, North Korea, Cuba - that disclaim the accusations? What constitutes adequate evidence for preemptive world action? May the world attack terrorist camps of terrorists in certain countries - Indonesia, the Philippines, Yemen - who have settled there against their hosts’ will?
On the battle field, does the Geneva Convention apply in warfare against terror? How does it work with wounded POWs who surrender with live hand grenades strapped to their bodies and threaten to blow up the hospital where they are treated? Should the al-Qaeda POWs be released after the war is over, if the world knows that their fanatic intent is to go back to destroying peaceful governments that they oppose for religious reasons? Should there be WWII-type detention camps, forever? (Incidentally, if the US expects its informants to dig up information at a Guantanamo al-Qaeda detention camp, where the leaders will exercise controls and do heavy indoctrination, think again. Individual confinement may be more productive for deprogramming.). What about terrorists who hide ammunition in churches, mosques, population centers and hospitals, and use civilians as shields for warlike acts? How about those ho use the white flag to ambush negotiators or take hostages? Are warlike acts against such terrorist warfare that incur "collateral damage" to be subject to international court proceedings? Are small Special Forces units acting behind enemy lines to take POWs (think of Senator Bob Kerry and Vietnam)?
Now the NGOs. How does the world deal with educational and medical care institutions, such as Hezbollah, that also serve as breeding and incubator organizations for suicide bombers? What about the charities that serve the same mixed agenda? And the banks, US, Somali and Mafiya, that transfer the funds for the above?
And religion. How does civilization deal with members of clergy who, under the flag off religious freedom, preach intolerance, advocate murder and recruit terrorists? And civilians who do the same under the excuse of free speech?. Should we countenance the use of the Bill of Rights against itself?
In discussing these subjects on the Internet with informed people, the proposed remedies go much against Dr Paranoia’s Four Freedoms- oriented mind, but the world is changing. Proposed actions range from local customs-oriented field justice for terrorist POWs who do not accept the Geneva Convention, appropriate direct retaliation against terrorist individuals, organizations and countries, upon establishing of adequate proof (that can be eventually used in the World Court). It is proposed that denials and token collaboration with the Alliance do not make friends out of terrorist nations. A preemptive strike against Saddam Hussein is suggested, to avoid a potential nuclear disaster when he has his weapon in place, in the style of Israel’s. strike of 1981. We moderates are urged to remember the visions of burning Americans jumping out of the WTC towers, holding hands.
Seeing these strong opinions in print, Dr Paranoia wishes he had his old world back, but "panta res," everything flows, you can never step back into the same river again, as Heraclites of Ephesus recognized 2,500 years ago. As a personal New Year’s resolution, he intends to try to be more patient with people, and to say a kind thing to at least one stranger every day. Happy 2002 to everybody.
# posted by Wally Dobelis @ 6:06 PM 
