Wednesday, January 15, 2003
Dr. Paranoia analyses the North Korean threat and offers policy suggestions
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
The good Dr. P. e-mails: Do not take too seriously the suggestion that the North Korean situation is due to Kim Jung-Il, their eccentric supreme leader and a movie buff, getting annoyed by the rough treatment of his countrymen in the latest James Bond epic, "Tomorrow Never Dies." Actually, they have reactivated a heavy-water (weapon grade) reactor to have a bargaining chip with the United States, whose assistance is once more needed to lift their pauperized country out of the doldrums.
There are two theories regarding their "entitlement." One, espoused by Selig S. Harrison, Director of the National Security Project of the Center for International Policy and a scholar with the Carnegie Foundation and the Woodrow Wilson International Center, contends that we wronged the North Koreans, by withdrawing from the 1994 agreement. The NKs waited a long time. Now they are warning us with the nuclear weapons they appear to have produced in secret, and are demanding that we fulfill our obligation.
History shows otherwise. The Soviet-sponsored NK, the country north of the 38th Parallel, was created, along with South Korea, by the Potsdam Conference after WWII. NK's USSR installed dictator Kim Il-Sung (d.1994) in 1950 started a war to take over democratic SK, and occupied Seoul. US-led UN forces fought NK and its allies, until an armistice in 1953. Three million Koreans, one million Chinese and 53,000 Americans died. The US has had 37,000 troops guarding the Panmunjom demilitarized border (DMZ) ever since, against the one million strong NK military forces. NK deals in deceit; they signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1986, to mask their "nuclear energy" weapons research, particularly a new plant at Yongbyon. In 1993, after a refusal to admit UN International Atomic Energy Authority's inspectors, they announced withdrawal from the treaty, but suspended it after Jimmy Carter's mission led to the "Geneva Agreed Framework" treaty, under which the US would provide them with two light-water energy plants capable of producing 2,000 megawatts of electricity by 2003, also supplying 500 tons of heavy oil per year in the interim. There were also agreements for normalization of relations and a US assurance of protecting NK against a nuclear threat. In return, they agreed to shut down two heavy water reactor plants and a plutonium plant.
The US did supply the North with petroleum but did not place a plant on the readied site. Terrorist attacks and defector evidence of continued weapons research in two hollowed-out mountains, Chun-Ma, and Kwanmo-Bong, disrupted the agreement, although the hapless UN's IAEA agents in 2000 could not find any evidence of resumed secret research. In fact, it was established that Pakistan (not under Musharraf) in the late 1990s sold the NKs centrifuge technology for uranium enrichment. In October 2002 NK admitted to secret nuclear weapons research, and in December they dismissed the UN inspectors. Mid-January NK announced, once more, their withdrawal from the NP Treaty and resumption of missile (i.e. delivery system) testing, first since 1998, when NK shocked the world by firing a missile across Japan, into the Pacific.
What drives NK into the seemingly insane activities and declarations? There's the old fear of Japan, who occupied this, China's "Chosen" province, in the Sino-Japanese War of 1895 and reaffirmed its control in the Russo-Japanese War of 1905. Further, Kim Il-Sung's "Joshe" (self-reliance) policy was driven by fear of US retaliation after 1953 (Gen. MacArthur had threatened NK with destruction by 30-50 nuclear bombs before Pres. Truman dismissed him for disobedience). Consequently, Kim's total militarization policy had turned NK into a pariah nation, next door to prosperous SK which they would like to occupy, and US had agreed to defend the latter, with nukes, if necessary. Threats, with pretense of nuclear weapons, which the world has to treat as real, has brought NK food relief for 1/3 of its 20 million population, also oil for its industry, principally from the US. Why not do it again, particularly after the agricultural disasters of the past two years? It appears that their war ally China, although expressing minimal dismay for the world's consumption, has not objected to this "mad dog" gambit, expecting the UN and US to knuckle under.
The US sees the ploy, and does not fall for it. Our line is more complex. Despite signing the NPT and membership tn the IAEA they have done WMD (weapons of mass destruction) and nuclear weapons research on the sly, soon after the Armistice of 1953. To prevent an attack on SK, the US had to have forces on the 38th Parallel, although their opposing Chinese and Russian counterparts withdrew in 1958. The 1994 agreement was the result of NK blackmail. We agreed to supply them with a reactor, but when the NKs did not meet the conditions of the UN, the reactor was not provided. Now they may have produced nuclear weapons on the sly, and are threatening the world with unspecified events, to get US aid. The US will not respond with war, because any aerial attack may inadvertently explode an atomic weapon and cause major destruction to the region - NK, SK, Japan, China and Russia. While we will not negotiate, it is to the advantage of the above nations to sway NK, in their own self-interest. They should induce NK to give up the weapons, as we did with Ukraine and Belorussia, and with Taiwan in 1998, when that island started flexing its "self-defense through nuclear armament" muscles. We, the US, shut them down, to please the Chinese and avoid major entanglement. China should be able to do the same. As to an US counter-ploy, our threat is making NK a total pariah by having the Security Council and the US isolate them completely. This will bring the dangers of implosion and refugee hordes by the million to China and Russia. These are our weapons to bring the latter countries into line. But the sufferers will be the poor defenseless people of NK, a humanitarian horror most clearly expressed by the SKs, who want the US the give in.
And why not, such a humanitarian thing? Well, there is also an extended threat scenario . The NKs have no intention of surrendering their nuclear chess piece, regardless of what the blackmail produces. It is the only means for their military government to retain power in a totally impoverished country, ready to collapse and implode, as the USSR did. The NK rulers can survive by continuing their arms manufacture and selling WMD technology, as well as their SCUDs, to other rogue nations that are afraid of the US hegemony and feel, likewise, that their governments' survival is only possible by acquiring nuclear weapons, creating more threats to the world. And, if NK does not have nuclear bombs today, they will have them tomorrow, given time, food and oil for energy. Not a pretty prospect. Dr P. advises to hold, not fold.
The good Dr. P. e-mails: Do not take too seriously the suggestion that the North Korean situation is due to Kim Jung-Il, their eccentric supreme leader and a movie buff, getting annoyed by the rough treatment of his countrymen in the latest James Bond epic, "Tomorrow Never Dies." Actually, they have reactivated a heavy-water (weapon grade) reactor to have a bargaining chip with the United States, whose assistance is once more needed to lift their pauperized country out of the doldrums.
There are two theories regarding their "entitlement." One, espoused by Selig S. Harrison, Director of the National Security Project of the Center for International Policy and a scholar with the Carnegie Foundation and the Woodrow Wilson International Center, contends that we wronged the North Koreans, by withdrawing from the 1994 agreement. The NKs waited a long time. Now they are warning us with the nuclear weapons they appear to have produced in secret, and are demanding that we fulfill our obligation.
History shows otherwise. The Soviet-sponsored NK, the country north of the 38th Parallel, was created, along with South Korea, by the Potsdam Conference after WWII. NK's USSR installed dictator Kim Il-Sung (d.1994) in 1950 started a war to take over democratic SK, and occupied Seoul. US-led UN forces fought NK and its allies, until an armistice in 1953. Three million Koreans, one million Chinese and 53,000 Americans died. The US has had 37,000 troops guarding the Panmunjom demilitarized border (DMZ) ever since, against the one million strong NK military forces. NK deals in deceit; they signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1986, to mask their "nuclear energy" weapons research, particularly a new plant at Yongbyon. In 1993, after a refusal to admit UN International Atomic Energy Authority's inspectors, they announced withdrawal from the treaty, but suspended it after Jimmy Carter's mission led to the "Geneva Agreed Framework" treaty, under which the US would provide them with two light-water energy plants capable of producing 2,000 megawatts of electricity by 2003, also supplying 500 tons of heavy oil per year in the interim. There were also agreements for normalization of relations and a US assurance of protecting NK against a nuclear threat. In return, they agreed to shut down two heavy water reactor plants and a plutonium plant.
The US did supply the North with petroleum but did not place a plant on the readied site. Terrorist attacks and defector evidence of continued weapons research in two hollowed-out mountains, Chun-Ma, and Kwanmo-Bong, disrupted the agreement, although the hapless UN's IAEA agents in 2000 could not find any evidence of resumed secret research. In fact, it was established that Pakistan (not under Musharraf) in the late 1990s sold the NKs centrifuge technology for uranium enrichment. In October 2002 NK admitted to secret nuclear weapons research, and in December they dismissed the UN inspectors. Mid-January NK announced, once more, their withdrawal from the NP Treaty and resumption of missile (i.e. delivery system) testing, first since 1998, when NK shocked the world by firing a missile across Japan, into the Pacific.
What drives NK into the seemingly insane activities and declarations? There's the old fear of Japan, who occupied this, China's "Chosen" province, in the Sino-Japanese War of 1895 and reaffirmed its control in the Russo-Japanese War of 1905. Further, Kim Il-Sung's "Joshe" (self-reliance) policy was driven by fear of US retaliation after 1953 (Gen. MacArthur had threatened NK with destruction by 30-50 nuclear bombs before Pres. Truman dismissed him for disobedience). Consequently, Kim's total militarization policy had turned NK into a pariah nation, next door to prosperous SK which they would like to occupy, and US had agreed to defend the latter, with nukes, if necessary. Threats, with pretense of nuclear weapons, which the world has to treat as real, has brought NK food relief for 1/3 of its 20 million population, also oil for its industry, principally from the US. Why not do it again, particularly after the agricultural disasters of the past two years? It appears that their war ally China, although expressing minimal dismay for the world's consumption, has not objected to this "mad dog" gambit, expecting the UN and US to knuckle under.
The US sees the ploy, and does not fall for it. Our line is more complex. Despite signing the NPT and membership tn the IAEA they have done WMD (weapons of mass destruction) and nuclear weapons research on the sly, soon after the Armistice of 1953. To prevent an attack on SK, the US had to have forces on the 38th Parallel, although their opposing Chinese and Russian counterparts withdrew in 1958. The 1994 agreement was the result of NK blackmail. We agreed to supply them with a reactor, but when the NKs did not meet the conditions of the UN, the reactor was not provided. Now they may have produced nuclear weapons on the sly, and are threatening the world with unspecified events, to get US aid. The US will not respond with war, because any aerial attack may inadvertently explode an atomic weapon and cause major destruction to the region - NK, SK, Japan, China and Russia. While we will not negotiate, it is to the advantage of the above nations to sway NK, in their own self-interest. They should induce NK to give up the weapons, as we did with Ukraine and Belorussia, and with Taiwan in 1998, when that island started flexing its "self-defense through nuclear armament" muscles. We, the US, shut them down, to please the Chinese and avoid major entanglement. China should be able to do the same. As to an US counter-ploy, our threat is making NK a total pariah by having the Security Council and the US isolate them completely. This will bring the dangers of implosion and refugee hordes by the million to China and Russia. These are our weapons to bring the latter countries into line. But the sufferers will be the poor defenseless people of NK, a humanitarian horror most clearly expressed by the SKs, who want the US the give in.
And why not, such a humanitarian thing? Well, there is also an extended threat scenario . The NKs have no intention of surrendering their nuclear chess piece, regardless of what the blackmail produces. It is the only means for their military government to retain power in a totally impoverished country, ready to collapse and implode, as the USSR did. The NK rulers can survive by continuing their arms manufacture and selling WMD technology, as well as their SCUDs, to other rogue nations that are afraid of the US hegemony and feel, likewise, that their governments' survival is only possible by acquiring nuclear weapons, creating more threats to the world. And, if NK does not have nuclear bombs today, they will have them tomorrow, given time, food and oil for energy. Not a pretty prospect. Dr P. advises to hold, not fold.
# posted by Wally Dobelis @ 3:14 PM 
