Tuesday, September 16, 2003
Dr. Paranoia solves the US and world's economic problems. No kidding.
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
Dr P. believes that globalization is a mixed blessing. The US Information Technology (IT) and communications superiority has been able to spread knowledge and increase economic status in countries across the world, to the point that other nations can successfully bid on IT projects here, offering corporations and governments to bring in systems at a fraction of US labor cost. Bottom-line governed US firms are firing Americans and giving jobs to Indian firms, and by the end of 2004 eight out of ten CIOs (Chief Information Officers) are expected to seek cost savings offshore. Thus Computerworld and Gartner Consulting, reliable forecasters of trends.
IBM is India’s fifth largest employer, EDS will go from 100 to 20,000 offshore employees next year, and Accenture is opening a large facility in China. Surveys show that IT outsourcing goes 38% to India, 6% to China, Mexico, Ireland and Canada each, 4% to Malaysia, Singapore, Russia and Philippines each. The remainder is spread to such countries as Pakistan ad Uganda, which only goes to show that the entire world is modernizing. India is adding 180,000 engineering graduates to its workforce annually.
One US position to take is long-term, that parochial attitudes throughout the LDCs (Less Developed Countries) are changing, and with the arrival of capitalism, secularization and democratization may not be far behind. That’s good for our side, the US as the policeman, eradicating terrorism, and the driving force for one world, unified in pursuit of equality and justice for all.
On the other hand, short-term, this outsourcing hurts the recovery of US economy. We already took the hits from NAFTA and WTO and GATT , which has removed a lot of manual jobs from the US market place, depriving such unionized workers as the textile, shoe and electronic device assemblers of their livelihood and forcing them to learn a lot, or become a burden to the social system. A catch-22, of global proportion. The tax and government service cutters would let the technologically handicapped die on the mountainside, exposed to the elements, the way ancient Spartans treated their elders. Seriously, what do we do with low-tech people? The social justice people would take care of them, bankrupting the economy. The in-between people would monkey with tariffs, trade prohibitions and such.
Actually, there is a solution. US is still the technologically most developed country in the world. Mass production of consumer products is not our forte, not since we let the genie out of the box. The Luddite economists who want to slow down progress because it destroys ecology are lacking in common sense, or they are adherents of traditional Moslem faith. If we the US do not move forward, someone else will. The US really has a manifest destiny, in economics as well as in world preservation. So, what is the answer?
Well, says Dr. P. If we continue to advance technology, a group of advanced thinkers will reap the initial benefits of their work, until the duplicators buy in. That’s applicable to IT, medicine, food. But then there’s energy. Energy is our next frontier, without doubt. Put your faith in it, bet on it, move it, talk it up. The world’s practically extractable hydrocarbon supply will cease in 35 years, probably less. We must find new technology, or else all function ceases on Planet Earth, within the generation of our children, or their children. That’s both an economic task and a challenge. In Rust Belt we have lost our leadership, here we regain it. The Bushites have partially recognized it, dedicating $10 billion to it. Not enough, but why is there no initiative showing? This effort has to start, soon. It may be basic to ou economic recovery, given the bad vibes from the marketplace. The perpetual Cassandra of the marketplace, Martin Weiss, is screaming about a collapse of the badly overextended banking system, the unsupportable price/earnings ratios of 30 and the phony low 6.4% unemployment figures. We need a real upsurge in productivity. Thriving for an energy breakthrough would move the US well forward.
Washington to copy, credit Dr P., when the world recovers. He’ll wait. This is serious stuff.
Dr P. believes that globalization is a mixed blessing. The US Information Technology (IT) and communications superiority has been able to spread knowledge and increase economic status in countries across the world, to the point that other nations can successfully bid on IT projects here, offering corporations and governments to bring in systems at a fraction of US labor cost. Bottom-line governed US firms are firing Americans and giving jobs to Indian firms, and by the end of 2004 eight out of ten CIOs (Chief Information Officers) are expected to seek cost savings offshore. Thus Computerworld and Gartner Consulting, reliable forecasters of trends.
IBM is India’s fifth largest employer, EDS will go from 100 to 20,000 offshore employees next year, and Accenture is opening a large facility in China. Surveys show that IT outsourcing goes 38% to India, 6% to China, Mexico, Ireland and Canada each, 4% to Malaysia, Singapore, Russia and Philippines each. The remainder is spread to such countries as Pakistan ad Uganda, which only goes to show that the entire world is modernizing. India is adding 180,000 engineering graduates to its workforce annually.
One US position to take is long-term, that parochial attitudes throughout the LDCs (Less Developed Countries) are changing, and with the arrival of capitalism, secularization and democratization may not be far behind. That’s good for our side, the US as the policeman, eradicating terrorism, and the driving force for one world, unified in pursuit of equality and justice for all.
On the other hand, short-term, this outsourcing hurts the recovery of US economy. We already took the hits from NAFTA and WTO and GATT , which has removed a lot of manual jobs from the US market place, depriving such unionized workers as the textile, shoe and electronic device assemblers of their livelihood and forcing them to learn a lot, or become a burden to the social system. A catch-22, of global proportion. The tax and government service cutters would let the technologically handicapped die on the mountainside, exposed to the elements, the way ancient Spartans treated their elders. Seriously, what do we do with low-tech people? The social justice people would take care of them, bankrupting the economy. The in-between people would monkey with tariffs, trade prohibitions and such.
Actually, there is a solution. US is still the technologically most developed country in the world. Mass production of consumer products is not our forte, not since we let the genie out of the box. The Luddite economists who want to slow down progress because it destroys ecology are lacking in common sense, or they are adherents of traditional Moslem faith. If we the US do not move forward, someone else will. The US really has a manifest destiny, in economics as well as in world preservation. So, what is the answer?
Well, says Dr. P. If we continue to advance technology, a group of advanced thinkers will reap the initial benefits of their work, until the duplicators buy in. That’s applicable to IT, medicine, food. But then there’s energy. Energy is our next frontier, without doubt. Put your faith in it, bet on it, move it, talk it up. The world’s practically extractable hydrocarbon supply will cease in 35 years, probably less. We must find new technology, or else all function ceases on Planet Earth, within the generation of our children, or their children. That’s both an economic task and a challenge. In Rust Belt we have lost our leadership, here we regain it. The Bushites have partially recognized it, dedicating $10 billion to it. Not enough, but why is there no initiative showing? This effort has to start, soon. It may be basic to ou economic recovery, given the bad vibes from the marketplace. The perpetual Cassandra of the marketplace, Martin Weiss, is screaming about a collapse of the badly overextended banking system, the unsupportable price/earnings ratios of 30 and the phony low 6.4% unemployment figures. We need a real upsurge in productivity. Thriving for an energy breakthrough would move the US well forward.
Washington to copy, credit Dr P., when the world recovers. He’ll wait. This is serious stuff.
# posted by Wally Dobelis @ 3:17 PM 
