Looking Ahead

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis

Being abroad and reading both foreign and domestic opinions of US policy frees the mind wonderfully from the mindlock called NYTimes. There appears to be a thread of despair for the Democratic Party that runs through the current press reports. The Economist and our Time mag both recently featured articles on the Hate Industry and the Politics of Rage, the anger against Bush that drives current Democratic politics, a device the former calls futile. Nixon and Clinton, the most hated Presidents, won their re-elections with votes to spare. Popular writers and talkers on both sides feed the hatred ((Al Franken, Michael Moore, David Corn, Molly Ivins vs. Ann Coulter, Laura Ingraham, Rush Limbaugh) and escalate the polarization that has been strong since the Gingrich election of 1996. The Economist suggests that the country is being inadvertently driven to the Left, alienating the moderates, much to the Bushites' relief. Having just returned from Australia, I can offer a corollary. The Aussie Labor Party caucus overthrew their moderate leader Simon Crean and selected Mark Latham, a hyper-Dean type (a Sydney Liverpool slum kid and rugby-player who broke a cabdriver's arm in a fare dispute, and calls Bush dangerous and incompetent), over Jay Beazley, a Blair "get rid of the terrorists” type. P.M. John Howard's Liberals are relieved.

I think it was an Australian Economic Review leader that analyzed the US situation most succinctly, if not quite accurately. The Democratic candidates are counting on the popular anger against Bush, but have no programs. The senator candidates are bothered by the war for which they voted in principle, and agree not to retreat from Iraq, but have no action plans. Others (Dennis Kusinich) will offer the management of Iraq's democratization to the UN, a naïve solution, while a third contingent (Al Sharpton, Carol Moseley-Braun) ignore Iraq and concentrate on domestic issues. The solution offered to the potential deadlock is a deus ex machina, a strong force, like an Al Gore or Hillary Clinton, entering the race at the last minute and saving the party, but by what miraculous mechanism? The rules prevalent after 1968 require a democratic primary process, rather than a popularity contest on the convention floor.

So, what is happening? Well, in NYC you are seeing petition gatherers collecting signatures for the Presidential candidates and for delegates to the national Presidential Convention, to be placed on the ballot for the Presidential primary that will take place on March 2. Each presidential hopeful needs 5,000 signatures statewide to appear on the primary ballot, and each delegate needs 1,000 signatures for the national convention. The candidates that will have 15% or better voter support in the primary will be represented by NY delegates at the national Presidential Convention in Boston, end July 2004.

Thus, in our 14th CD area Congresswoman Caroline Maloney has a slate for John Kerry, of six members per CD (he's also supported by Mark Green and Virginia Fields), and you will see Louise Dankberg of the Tilden Democratic Club heading it. Other local clubs, the Eleanor Roosevelt, GSID, Lexington, Coda (below 14th Street) and Lenox Hill will also be active with petitions. Each Presidential candidate has a NYS committee, and attempts to have a delegation in each of the 29 CDs. Kerry and Dean have
the necessary complement, Sharpton and Moseley-Braun will not try, and the other candidates are struggling to reach the number. NYS will have 287 delegates at the National Convention, 236 pledged to candidates. We get there by electing 154 delegates in the primary, 51 at the NYS Democratic Convention in May (after getting some clues in 20+ state primaries), plus some uncommitted and alternates, a fuzzy process.

Note that clubs do not attempt to unite in support of a candidate, and their members may appear on various lists. That's democracy, Mayor Bloomberg. You the voter, stopped on the street by a petition-gatherer, may not recognize the state convention candidates, but you will see the Presidential candidate's name.

Going back to the original question, can the rescuing candidate, Hillary or Al, appear on a white horse on the convention floor, and give the Dems direction and leadership? The horse act is ok, but petition laws govern. The petitioning for delegacy to the NYS Presidential primary on March 2 is limited to Nov. 26 through Dec. 21 (with signatures due Jan.2, 2004), so there. No matter how deep and vociferous their anti-Bush sentiment, no pledged NY delegates can step forth in March 2004 at the Boston Presidential Convention, to push the case for Hillary or Al - unless you, an individual, form a committee and print up some forms and gather the 5,000 unauthorized signatures super fast, as someone jocularly suggested (but do not expect the Board of Elections to accept them).

So that’s why some observers see a Bush prevalence in 2004. The Dems have no overwhelmingly bright star with a program, except Howard Dean, who's a cannon-ball populist weirdo, with little time left to correct the image. In terms of concerted action, the local clubs are not finding any. Happy Holidays!

Wally Dobelis thanks Louise Dankberg, and Rodney Capel of the NYS Democratic Committee.