Friday, January 09, 2004
The mysterious Iowa caucus and the first cut
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
Theoretically the point of the first cut in the 2004 Democratic campaign for Presidency should be the qualification for the Federal matching funds grant, but it is not. The candidates who do not qualify because of inadequate public support, as measured by local fund raising, hang on, looking for positional gains - call it Vice Prsidency - from offering their troops' support to a potential winner. There is also the distant threat that a cult candidate, if not nominated, might form a third party and be the spoiler.
Anyway, conventional wisdom states that a candidate who does not finish at least third in Iowa and New Hampshire must leave the race, since the donor support will disappear. Of the six Iowa January 19 contenders, Howard Dean is riding high, with $15M collected in the last three months (he has opted out of the Federal match), followed by Gephardt ($3.1M match). Kerry has invested $7M of his personal fortune in a do- or-die IA and NH effort. His wife, Teresa Heinz Kerrey, deeply involved in rehabilitation of her company's hometown, Pittsburgh, travels the town meetings in IA preaching local initiative in preserving the farming communities. Edwards, Kucinich and Moseley-Braun stay in, with not much hope. Strategically abstaining from IA are Wesley Clark ($11M plus $3.7M Fed match) who will concentrate on the NH January 27 primary, Lieberman, who also has the February 3 primaries in MO, NM, SC, OK, AZ and DE in mind, and Sharpton.
What then, is the mystique of the IA caucus? It is in the details. Essentially, the caucus consists of 2,500 town hall meetings of registered party members who vote for the candidates, or the candidates' delegates. Those with votes under 15% are dropped, and a re-vote takes place. The votes are sent up to the next party level, and voted out, dropping losers, until the top level is reached, and 54 Democratic and 32 Republican delegates are elected for the National Convention. As levels advance, the initial vote loses its identity.
That is the principle, the actuality is more complex. The Republican and Democratic procedures differ, and voter admission methods vary from town to town. Courting the town-hall voters is a big electioneering task, and the twenty-somethings who descend on IA on behalf of the candidates lead a hectic life of shared dorms and daily travels. The essential result of the caucus is the first number, which tells the world where each candidate stands with real people.
The caucus popularity came about after the 1968 Democratic Presidential Convention in Chicago. The disorders and riots associated with the convention approach caused the passage of state laws that changed the Presidential nominating procedure, from state party conventions to state primaries. The latter are now part of the law in 2/3 of the states. Some chose the caucus, as a compromise, in an attempt to retain the town meeting and discourse nature of the process, preserving the individuality of the party voters.
Some stats: IA holds 7 electoral votes, with one R and one D senator, and four R and one D congressmen. In the 2000 primary Gore won 63-41 against McCain , and scored 48.5-48.2 in the general election against Bush. In 1996 Clinton won 50-40 against Dole.
As for New Hampshire, it holds 4 electoral votes, for her delegation of two R senators and two R congressmen. The presidential primary is on January 27.
NH is most important because of the state's historical long record of foreshadowing national Presidential elections. In 1952 NH had Eisenhower, in 1956 Nixon's NH write-in campaign gave him the VP spot. Kennedy won in 1960, in 1964 there was no filing, but LBJ had an overwhelming write-in vote. In 1968 Eugene McCarthy's 41% primary score scared LBJ out of the race. Nixon and Agnew held in 1972, though both had to resign, and the unexpected victory of "Jimmy Who" in 1976 was an omen. !980 brought on Reagan, but the 1984 favorite Gary Hart fell out of fashion. Bush41 worked out well, but in 1992 favorite son Paul Tsongas's victory over Clinton, precipitated by the Flowers case, did not play nationally. In 1996 Clinton won 49-39 against Dole. The 2000 primary gave Gore 49.7-48.5 against McCain, but he lost the state 48.1-46.8 against Bush.
NH will be particularly interesting because of the Dean appeal. His flat- out opposition to the Iraq war (although he would continue our struggle for democracy there) and in-your -face rejection of Bush, coupled with eloquent straight (though inconsistent) talk out on issues has captured the young and the unhappy, who flock to Dean rallies as though they were group sessions. The conventional wisdom tags him as loser, because middle Democrats will reject his radicalism, but his charisma plus the successful Internet MoveOn and Friendster-type appeals suggest a surprise. NH will tell more.
Theoretically the point of the first cut in the 2004 Democratic campaign for Presidency should be the qualification for the Federal matching funds grant, but it is not. The candidates who do not qualify because of inadequate public support, as measured by local fund raising, hang on, looking for positional gains - call it Vice Prsidency - from offering their troops' support to a potential winner. There is also the distant threat that a cult candidate, if not nominated, might form a third party and be the spoiler.
Anyway, conventional wisdom states that a candidate who does not finish at least third in Iowa and New Hampshire must leave the race, since the donor support will disappear. Of the six Iowa January 19 contenders, Howard Dean is riding high, with $15M collected in the last three months (he has opted out of the Federal match), followed by Gephardt ($3.1M match). Kerry has invested $7M of his personal fortune in a do- or-die IA and NH effort. His wife, Teresa Heinz Kerrey, deeply involved in rehabilitation of her company's hometown, Pittsburgh, travels the town meetings in IA preaching local initiative in preserving the farming communities. Edwards, Kucinich and Moseley-Braun stay in, with not much hope. Strategically abstaining from IA are Wesley Clark ($11M plus $3.7M Fed match) who will concentrate on the NH January 27 primary, Lieberman, who also has the February 3 primaries in MO, NM, SC, OK, AZ and DE in mind, and Sharpton.
What then, is the mystique of the IA caucus? It is in the details. Essentially, the caucus consists of 2,500 town hall meetings of registered party members who vote for the candidates, or the candidates' delegates. Those with votes under 15% are dropped, and a re-vote takes place. The votes are sent up to the next party level, and voted out, dropping losers, until the top level is reached, and 54 Democratic and 32 Republican delegates are elected for the National Convention. As levels advance, the initial vote loses its identity.
That is the principle, the actuality is more complex. The Republican and Democratic procedures differ, and voter admission methods vary from town to town. Courting the town-hall voters is a big electioneering task, and the twenty-somethings who descend on IA on behalf of the candidates lead a hectic life of shared dorms and daily travels. The essential result of the caucus is the first number, which tells the world where each candidate stands with real people.
The caucus popularity came about after the 1968 Democratic Presidential Convention in Chicago. The disorders and riots associated with the convention approach caused the passage of state laws that changed the Presidential nominating procedure, from state party conventions to state primaries. The latter are now part of the law in 2/3 of the states. Some chose the caucus, as a compromise, in an attempt to retain the town meeting and discourse nature of the process, preserving the individuality of the party voters.
Some stats: IA holds 7 electoral votes, with one R and one D senator, and four R and one D congressmen. In the 2000 primary Gore won 63-41 against McCain , and scored 48.5-48.2 in the general election against Bush. In 1996 Clinton won 50-40 against Dole.
As for New Hampshire, it holds 4 electoral votes, for her delegation of two R senators and two R congressmen. The presidential primary is on January 27.
NH is most important because of the state's historical long record of foreshadowing national Presidential elections. In 1952 NH had Eisenhower, in 1956 Nixon's NH write-in campaign gave him the VP spot. Kennedy won in 1960, in 1964 there was no filing, but LBJ had an overwhelming write-in vote. In 1968 Eugene McCarthy's 41% primary score scared LBJ out of the race. Nixon and Agnew held in 1972, though both had to resign, and the unexpected victory of "Jimmy Who" in 1976 was an omen. !980 brought on Reagan, but the 1984 favorite Gary Hart fell out of fashion. Bush41 worked out well, but in 1992 favorite son Paul Tsongas's victory over Clinton, precipitated by the Flowers case, did not play nationally. In 1996 Clinton won 49-39 against Dole. The 2000 primary gave Gore 49.7-48.5 against McCain, but he lost the state 48.1-46.8 against Bush.
NH will be particularly interesting because of the Dean appeal. His flat- out opposition to the Iraq war (although he would continue our struggle for democracy there) and in-your -face rejection of Bush, coupled with eloquent straight (though inconsistent) talk out on issues has captured the young and the unhappy, who flock to Dean rallies as though they were group sessions. The conventional wisdom tags him as loser, because middle Democrats will reject his radicalism, but his charisma plus the successful Internet MoveOn and Friendster-type appeals suggest a surprise. NH will tell more.
# posted by Wally Dobelis @ 10:46 AM 
