Thursday, January 22, 2004
A New Yorker looks at Iowa caucus and sees the election still open
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
The unexpected victory of John Kerry and John Edwards in Iowa makes several points:
The Democrats of our, Carolyn Maloney's Congressional District, working as Kerry delegates to the NY Presidential Convention, should feel validated by the victory of their initial choice of a Presidential candidate.
The American voter is a sound middle-of-the-road thinker. Extremists and confrontation lists do not attract him, and, particularly, her.
The voters are ambivalent about Iraq, horrified by the mismanagement of the war and the losses of American lives but essentially accepting the premise that the war is justified as a long-term instrument of peace for the Middle East and defeat of the terrorists that threaten the US. Senators Kerry and Edwards were not damaged by their vote of approval for the enforcement of the UN resolutions against Iraq.
The press, with its frenzied attention to the Howard Dean campaign as a grassroots movement, highlighting individuals who made personal sacrifices of time and careers for the cause, misjudged the Democratic majority.
Dean's extremism and inconsistencies, belatedly spin-doctored by some as a Clintonian triangulation to satisfy everybody, did not help.
The effect of special interest groups is moot. Labor unions, the strength of Richard Gephardt, did not move the vote. On the other hand, the anti-Dean Democratic Leadership Conference, an organization of regulars, may have proven its clout.
Iowa is not conclusive With roughly 600,000 voters eligible in each party, the turnout is generally low, 90,000 for Republicans, 60,000 for Democrats. Its results, compared to the near-Delphic New Hampshire primaries, have differed in 3 out of 13 contested events since 1972, per NYTimes.
Illustratively, in 1984 Walter Mondale crushed Gary Hart but lost in New Hampshire.
In 1988 Gephardt won, and came in second in New Hampshire, losing conclusively on Super Tuesday and running out of campaign funds. In that weird year Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts was the winner, after Gary Hart withdrew and Mario Cuomo refused to be a candidate. At the Atlanta Presidential Convention only Dukakis and Jesse Jackson remained in running, the former winning in the first round, collecting 2,876 votes against Jackson's 1,218.
The same year, Bob Dole beat George Bush Sr. and others.
In 1992 Iowa was ludicrous - favorite son Tom Harkin took 76%, Paul Tsongas 4% Clinton , Bob Kerrey (not Kerry) and Jerry Brown below that. In New Hampshire Paul Tsongas took 33%, Clinton had 25% with Kerrey, Harkin and Brown around 10% . Bush was uncontested. We know who won.
1996 saw Dole beating the millionaire Steve Forbes, leaving him 4th, behind a surprisingly strong Pat Buchanan and Governor Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, with Senators Gramm and Lugar far behind. Clinton was easy, with no competition.
The 2000 Caucus had Al Gore beat Bill Bradley with ease, and George W. Bush win narrowly over Steve Forbes.
As stated before, Iowa Caucus is the first and indicative of the future, but the New Hampshire Primaryshows the real numeric strengths. Everybody is still alive, as they say in poker.
The unexpected victory of John Kerry and John Edwards in Iowa makes several points:
The Democrats of our, Carolyn Maloney's Congressional District, working as Kerry delegates to the NY Presidential Convention, should feel validated by the victory of their initial choice of a Presidential candidate.
The American voter is a sound middle-of-the-road thinker. Extremists and confrontation lists do not attract him, and, particularly, her.
The voters are ambivalent about Iraq, horrified by the mismanagement of the war and the losses of American lives but essentially accepting the premise that the war is justified as a long-term instrument of peace for the Middle East and defeat of the terrorists that threaten the US. Senators Kerry and Edwards were not damaged by their vote of approval for the enforcement of the UN resolutions against Iraq.
The press, with its frenzied attention to the Howard Dean campaign as a grassroots movement, highlighting individuals who made personal sacrifices of time and careers for the cause, misjudged the Democratic majority.
Dean's extremism and inconsistencies, belatedly spin-doctored by some as a Clintonian triangulation to satisfy everybody, did not help.
The effect of special interest groups is moot. Labor unions, the strength of Richard Gephardt, did not move the vote. On the other hand, the anti-Dean Democratic Leadership Conference, an organization of regulars, may have proven its clout.
Iowa is not conclusive With roughly 600,000 voters eligible in each party, the turnout is generally low, 90,000 for Republicans, 60,000 for Democrats. Its results, compared to the near-Delphic New Hampshire primaries, have differed in 3 out of 13 contested events since 1972, per NYTimes.
Illustratively, in 1984 Walter Mondale crushed Gary Hart but lost in New Hampshire.
In 1988 Gephardt won, and came in second in New Hampshire, losing conclusively on Super Tuesday and running out of campaign funds. In that weird year Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts was the winner, after Gary Hart withdrew and Mario Cuomo refused to be a candidate. At the Atlanta Presidential Convention only Dukakis and Jesse Jackson remained in running, the former winning in the first round, collecting 2,876 votes against Jackson's 1,218.
The same year, Bob Dole beat George Bush Sr. and others.
In 1992 Iowa was ludicrous - favorite son Tom Harkin took 76%, Paul Tsongas 4% Clinton , Bob Kerrey (not Kerry) and Jerry Brown below that. In New Hampshire Paul Tsongas took 33%, Clinton had 25% with Kerrey, Harkin and Brown around 10% . Bush was uncontested. We know who won.
1996 saw Dole beating the millionaire Steve Forbes, leaving him 4th, behind a surprisingly strong Pat Buchanan and Governor Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, with Senators Gramm and Lugar far behind. Clinton was easy, with no competition.
The 2000 Caucus had Al Gore beat Bill Bradley with ease, and George W. Bush win narrowly over Steve Forbes.
As stated before, Iowa Caucus is the first and indicative of the future, but the New Hampshire Primaryshows the real numeric strengths. Everybody is still alive, as they say in poker.
# posted by Wally Dobelis @ 2:57 PM 
