Thursday, November 03, 2005
Fearless predictions for the November 8 election in Manhattan
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
New York’s November 8 election brings few surprises, unless you count as one the notion that this Democratic town is once more electing a Republican mayor.
The NYTimes poll two weeks before the election shows Michael Bloomberg with a 67% approval rating, up from 25% in 2003. Of course NY Republican leaders are sui generis, and only 40% of voters think Bloomberg is typical of his party, despite the large donations from his treasure chest to the Bush campaign.
Of Democratic voters, 49% are for Bloomberg; vs 37% for Ferrer (compared to Mike’s – as he likes to be known - 34% in 2001, and the 42% for Giuliani in 1993), and 57% would pull the lever for the Mayor right now, as against 30% for the challenger. Among Black voters the Mayor has 42%, vs 25% in 2001, and among Hispanics, 33% vs 52% for Ferrer, who needs 80%, and will gain some points through the two public debates.
It cannot just be the Mayor’s obscenely overwhelming megamillion dollar campaign and adroit PR work, and favors for Democrat pols that are pulling the voters. New Yorkers do not fall for propaganda, as a rule. His popularity hinges on the observations that, although arrogant, he is totally for NYC, does not take politicians’ guff, and has business skills that work – and on the weaknesses of the Democratic candidate, perceived by some as ambivalent and lacking gravitas. The Mayor’s pushy Olympics and the West Side stadium tries have been forgiven, overshadowed by successes in education, crime control, controlling the deficit and even grudgingly granted carrot-and- whip union agreements. A combination of the above has led several Democratic weighties and city newspapers to endorse the mayor.
Just consider these allies, former Mayor Ed Koch, Brooklyn BP Marty Markowitz, his predecessor Claire Shulman, Councilmembers Dov Hikind, Peter Malone Jr. and others in the boroughs, and our own Eva Moskowitz and Margarita Lopez (the latter may pay for it, if she tries for Steve Sanders’s 74th AD seat, although she seems not to have much interest in Albany). Manhattan BP candidate Brian Ellner has actually taken a job in City Hall. Then, the New York Times, the late New York Newsday, New York Observer, The Jewish Press, with more newspapers expected to join the choir.
As to the actual races, my fearless forecast features winners as well as the field, for local color (we miss the interesting early bloomers, the Cabbagestalks and Turnipseeds, and the perennials, such as George Spitz). My money is on:
For Mayor, Michael Bloomberg (R, Lib) vs. Fernando Ferrer (D) and a field - Seth Blum (no party), Anthony Gronowicz (Green), Martin Koppel (Socialist), Jimmy McMillan (“Rent Is Too Damn High”), Thomas Ognibene (Conservative) and Audrey Silk (Libertarian).
For Public Advocate, Betsy Gotbaum (D), vs. the Bernard Goetz (Libt), Jay Golub (Cons) and Jim Lesczynski (Liberal, Libt).
For Comptroller, William Thompson, Jr. (D, Working Families Party), vs. Daniel Fein (Soc), Ron Moore (Libt) and Herbert Ryan (Cons).
For Manhattan Borough President, Scott Stringer (D), vs. Joseph Dobrian (Libt), Jesse Fields (Independence), Arrin Hawkins (Soc) and Barry Popik (R, Lib).
For Manhattan DA, Robert Morgenthau (D), vs. Leslie Crocker Snyder (D).
For Manhattan Surrogate, Kirsten Booth Glen (D, WFP) vs. Eve Rachel Markewich (D).
For Councilmanic District #2, Rosie Mendez (D, WFP)) vs. John Carlino (R) and Claudia Flanagan (np).
For Councilmanic District #4, Dan Garodnick (D, WFP) vs Patrick Murphy (R, Lib) and Jak Jacob Karako (Libt).
In the race for Steve Sanders’s 74th Assembly District seat (he is leaving 1/1/2006.Good health, Steve, we are going to miss you a lot!), the candidates must be residents of the AD for at least a year, which excludes Eva Moskowitz.
.
The current list of interested parties includes Steve Kaufman, Steve Sanders’s Chief of Staff (whom I knew as an ally in the City Council meetings, late in the 1980’s, when I pitched cost –benefit arguments against moving the Police Academy to the Bronx), Dan Tobias, an attorney in private practice and former District leader of the Tilden Democratic Club, Sylvia Friedman, the female State Committee member (her male counterpart, Michael Farrin, has no interest in an Albany opportunity) and maybe Jane Crotty, who fought and lost in the contest for a Councilmanic seat in CD#4 in 1992, when Andrew Eristoff had to spend a king’s ransom (mostly in legal fees) to win the honor. Darren Bloch and Dan Cavanaugh, both CD#2 contestants in the September primary, have withdrawn. It is rumored that Scott Stringer’s Assembly seat has eight contestants.
The special elections have no primaries, the two Democratic County Committee members from each election district have that rare opportunity of voting in two meaningful meetings, the early one in December, and in a late one in February, should Governor Pataki decide to hold such elections – he is empowered to hold the ADs unrepresented until the November 2006 election. The Republicans have their own ritual.
This column also thanks the Citizens Union, and congratulates Louise Dankberg, District Leader of the Tilden Democratic Club, who has been elected 1st Vice Chair of the NY County Democratic Committee
New York’s November 8 election brings few surprises, unless you count as one the notion that this Democratic town is once more electing a Republican mayor.
The NYTimes poll two weeks before the election shows Michael Bloomberg with a 67% approval rating, up from 25% in 2003. Of course NY Republican leaders are sui generis, and only 40% of voters think Bloomberg is typical of his party, despite the large donations from his treasure chest to the Bush campaign.
Of Democratic voters, 49% are for Bloomberg; vs 37% for Ferrer (compared to Mike’s – as he likes to be known - 34% in 2001, and the 42% for Giuliani in 1993), and 57% would pull the lever for the Mayor right now, as against 30% for the challenger. Among Black voters the Mayor has 42%, vs 25% in 2001, and among Hispanics, 33% vs 52% for Ferrer, who needs 80%, and will gain some points through the two public debates.
It cannot just be the Mayor’s obscenely overwhelming megamillion dollar campaign and adroit PR work, and favors for Democrat pols that are pulling the voters. New Yorkers do not fall for propaganda, as a rule. His popularity hinges on the observations that, although arrogant, he is totally for NYC, does not take politicians’ guff, and has business skills that work – and on the weaknesses of the Democratic candidate, perceived by some as ambivalent and lacking gravitas. The Mayor’s pushy Olympics and the West Side stadium tries have been forgiven, overshadowed by successes in education, crime control, controlling the deficit and even grudgingly granted carrot-and- whip union agreements. A combination of the above has led several Democratic weighties and city newspapers to endorse the mayor.
Just consider these allies, former Mayor Ed Koch, Brooklyn BP Marty Markowitz, his predecessor Claire Shulman, Councilmembers Dov Hikind, Peter Malone Jr. and others in the boroughs, and our own Eva Moskowitz and Margarita Lopez (the latter may pay for it, if she tries for Steve Sanders’s 74th AD seat, although she seems not to have much interest in Albany). Manhattan BP candidate Brian Ellner has actually taken a job in City Hall. Then, the New York Times, the late New York Newsday, New York Observer, The Jewish Press, with more newspapers expected to join the choir.
As to the actual races, my fearless forecast features winners as well as the field, for local color (we miss the interesting early bloomers, the Cabbagestalks and Turnipseeds, and the perennials, such as George Spitz). My money is on:
For Mayor, Michael Bloomberg (R, Lib) vs. Fernando Ferrer (D) and a field - Seth Blum (no party), Anthony Gronowicz (Green), Martin Koppel (Socialist), Jimmy McMillan (“Rent Is Too Damn High”), Thomas Ognibene (Conservative) and Audrey Silk (Libertarian).
For Public Advocate, Betsy Gotbaum (D), vs. the Bernard Goetz (Libt), Jay Golub (Cons) and Jim Lesczynski (Liberal, Libt).
For Comptroller, William Thompson, Jr. (D, Working Families Party), vs. Daniel Fein (Soc), Ron Moore (Libt) and Herbert Ryan (Cons).
For Manhattan Borough President, Scott Stringer (D), vs. Joseph Dobrian (Libt), Jesse Fields (Independence), Arrin Hawkins (Soc) and Barry Popik (R, Lib).
For Manhattan DA, Robert Morgenthau (D), vs. Leslie Crocker Snyder (D).
For Manhattan Surrogate, Kirsten Booth Glen (D, WFP) vs. Eve Rachel Markewich (D).
For Councilmanic District #2, Rosie Mendez (D, WFP)) vs. John Carlino (R) and Claudia Flanagan (np).
For Councilmanic District #4, Dan Garodnick (D, WFP) vs Patrick Murphy (R, Lib) and Jak Jacob Karako (Libt).
In the race for Steve Sanders’s 74th Assembly District seat (he is leaving 1/1/2006.Good health, Steve, we are going to miss you a lot!), the candidates must be residents of the AD for at least a year, which excludes Eva Moskowitz.
.
The current list of interested parties includes Steve Kaufman, Steve Sanders’s Chief of Staff (whom I knew as an ally in the City Council meetings, late in the 1980’s, when I pitched cost –benefit arguments against moving the Police Academy to the Bronx), Dan Tobias, an attorney in private practice and former District leader of the Tilden Democratic Club, Sylvia Friedman, the female State Committee member (her male counterpart, Michael Farrin, has no interest in an Albany opportunity) and maybe Jane Crotty, who fought and lost in the contest for a Councilmanic seat in CD#4 in 1992, when Andrew Eristoff had to spend a king’s ransom (mostly in legal fees) to win the honor. Darren Bloch and Dan Cavanaugh, both CD#2 contestants in the September primary, have withdrawn. It is rumored that Scott Stringer’s Assembly seat has eight contestants.
The special elections have no primaries, the two Democratic County Committee members from each election district have that rare opportunity of voting in two meaningful meetings, the early one in December, and in a late one in February, should Governor Pataki decide to hold such elections – he is empowered to hold the ADs unrepresented until the November 2006 election. The Republicans have their own ritual.
This column also thanks the Citizens Union, and congratulates Louise Dankberg, District Leader of the Tilden Democratic Club, who has been elected 1st Vice Chair of the NY County Democratic Committee
# posted by Wally Dobelis @ 8:50 PM 
