Tuesday, December 06, 2005
Republicans are facing dilemmas, and Democrats are not home free -the 2006 New York election
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
This column’s Fearless Election Forecast of the November 8 local results was 100% accurate. The November event was rather a shock to the Republican party, particularly close to home. On Long Island, both Nassau and Suffolk counties, former GOP strongholds, now have Democratic legislatures and executives. Locally, the Vincent Albano Republican Club had expected better results in Patrick Murphy's run for the 4th Councilmanic District, against the Samuel J.Tilden Democratic Club’s ex-President Dan Garodnick.
To give some stability and avoid internecine warfare, Gov. Pataki and former Mayor Giuliani both want to pick the candidates for the 2006 election early, favoring former Massachusetts Governor William Weld and former Westchester County DA Jeanine Pirro to fight the uphill battle against Spitzer and Clinton. While the state Republican chairman Stephen Minarik of Monroe County pushes the idea, he is stepping lightly, and wants to test the waters with the 62 county chairpeople first, in a December 12 meeting, objected to as too early by Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno, who has his own ideas. Several Republicans, all with credentials but none with funds want to be the sacrificial lambs, presumably because fighting and having lost an unwinnable election gives a candidate future credibility.
The potential candidates’ list has changed, and the current contenders include Tom Golisano, the Rochester billionaire, Pataki hater and founder of Paychex, who ran on the Independence ticket since 1994, and switched to Republicans on October 11, at the advice of Joe Bruno and Congressman Tom Reynolds of Buffalo, himself a potential Gubernatorial candidate. Others include Patrick Mahoney, Assemblyman of Columbia and Dutchess Counties, a conservationist and at 6’ 11’’ deemed the tallest elected legislator in the country, Congressman John Sweeney, whose 200-mile long district runs from Poughkeepsie to Lake Placid, and the former Assembly Minority leader John Faso, all well credentialed in my upstate neck of woods.
Randy Daniels, the former Secretary of State, is the only African-American candidate, very active. A former Democrat (he was part of the Dinkins cabinet), Independent, and WCBS commentator on agriculture and foreign affairs, he was recruited by Pataki, but now has lost the Governor’s support. The party does not trust him entirely, and he will look for support from the Conservatives. But that is a double edged sword, whoever wins their support must pledge to run even if the candidate does not get the Republicans’ endorsement.
But the unity plans has problems. Weld, although relatively free of the carpetbagger label - he is a native New Yorker, and has resided here since the resignation from governorship in MA and the defeat for appointment as ambassador to Mexico (he was stopped by ex-Sen. Jesse Helms of NC, a fellow Republican who hates choice, medicinal marijuana and gay marriage) - also has a credibility problem, although you would not know it from a recent campaign interview by a morning paper. Viewed as an opportunist, with no interests shown in NYS affairs (Clinton, a true outsider, has paid her dues), he has come under criticism as the CEO of Decker College in KY. His equity firm, Leeds Weld, was a minority investor in this private school chain, and when the school came under both federal and state criticism, Weld went down to become the CEO and straighten out things. The criticisms involved false requests of government aid, and unfulfilled program promises for students. The school went bankrupt and Weld left in October, and, although his honesty as a former lawman is impeccable (he was a US DA, with Giuliani), his executive ability is being questioned. Weld has explanations, but the damage will be there, and Giuliani, as of the moment, seems to have left the support group.
The Pirro nomination has cracks too. Joseph Bruno, the Golisano prompter, thinks that Jeanine has a better chance running for NY State Attorney General, energizing the disheartened Republican voters and thus protecting his Senate majority. The A/G race has attracted a powerful list of candidates (Assemblymen Richard Brodsky of Queens and Michael Gianaris of Queens, Mark Lane, Andrew Cuomo, Charlie King, spam-wise Sean Patrick Maloney, Jeff Klein and Denise O’Connell) which Bruno hopes will self-destruct. Hillary has such overwhelming support that running an otherwise electable candidate against her is a waste of talent. Whether Jeanine will eventually agree with him is moot.
The Dems, long satisfied that Spitzer will win the Governorship, have a new problem. Tom Suozzi, Nassau County executive, thinks he has a better chance, as a candidate against gay marriage, and, although not against the Roe v. Wade, as a supporter of late term (“partial birth”) limits. This gives him a better chance with the upstate conservative Democrats and disenchanted Republicans. He agrees with the latter that Spitzer’s support is a “mile wide and an inch deep,” and wants a more midstream approach. Although Suozzi is a Spitzer-type reformer – he cleaned up corrupt Glen Cove, as its Mayor, and has done likewise in the county – Dem leadership looks askance at this late starter, feeling that the 2006 governorship is a done deal without having to court Suozzi supporters at the margins.
Some information on the A/G candidates:
Richard L. Brodsky 92nd AD, NW Westchester, from N Yonkers to Mount Pleasant, is the chair of the committee governing public corporations, MTA, Port Authority and Lower Manhattan Corporation. Formerly chair of Environmental Protection, he issued the Indian Point Nuclear Generating Facility evacuation report that revealed the plants’ weaknesses, and, with Pete Seeger’s Clearvater group, offered regulations to control the pollutants in the plants’ 2 billion gallon daily water intake. He is a former adjunct law professor at St. John’s and Pace.
Michael Granaris, 36th AD, Queens, is a Fordham (summa cum laude) and Harvard Law graduate who entered politics as aide to Congressman Thomas Manton, then to Gov Cuomo, as Queens representative., then as Associate Counsel to NYS Assembly.
Andrew Cuomo, his father’s campaign manager, appointed secretary of HUD by Pres. Clinton, subsequently candidate for NYS Governor.
Charlie King, 1987 NYU Law grad, with Fried, Frank Harris 15 years, now CEO of Praxis, a not for profit housing firm which he rehabilitated. Formed NY County Democratic chair (1992-4), first Black elected to board of ADL.
Sean Patrick Mahoney, with Willkie farr & Gallagher many years, Clinton’s advisor and highest ranking openly gay man on Pres. Clinton’s staff, has years of NYC CB service.
Other candidates:
Tom (Blasé Thomas) Golisano (1942-) is the founder of Paychex, 2nd largest US processor of payrolls. One of founders of the Independence Party in 1994 and its real money backer, his campaigns assured the party’s line in election ballots. In conflict with Independence’s other leader Leonora Fulani who was a Bloomberg backer.
This column’s Fearless Election Forecast of the November 8 local results was 100% accurate. The November event was rather a shock to the Republican party, particularly close to home. On Long Island, both Nassau and Suffolk counties, former GOP strongholds, now have Democratic legislatures and executives. Locally, the Vincent Albano Republican Club had expected better results in Patrick Murphy's run for the 4th Councilmanic District, against the Samuel J.Tilden Democratic Club’s ex-President Dan Garodnick.
To give some stability and avoid internecine warfare, Gov. Pataki and former Mayor Giuliani both want to pick the candidates for the 2006 election early, favoring former Massachusetts Governor William Weld and former Westchester County DA Jeanine Pirro to fight the uphill battle against Spitzer and Clinton. While the state Republican chairman Stephen Minarik of Monroe County pushes the idea, he is stepping lightly, and wants to test the waters with the 62 county chairpeople first, in a December 12 meeting, objected to as too early by Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno, who has his own ideas. Several Republicans, all with credentials but none with funds want to be the sacrificial lambs, presumably because fighting and having lost an unwinnable election gives a candidate future credibility.
The potential candidates’ list has changed, and the current contenders include Tom Golisano, the Rochester billionaire, Pataki hater and founder of Paychex, who ran on the Independence ticket since 1994, and switched to Republicans on October 11, at the advice of Joe Bruno and Congressman Tom Reynolds of Buffalo, himself a potential Gubernatorial candidate. Others include Patrick Mahoney, Assemblyman of Columbia and Dutchess Counties, a conservationist and at 6’ 11’’ deemed the tallest elected legislator in the country, Congressman John Sweeney, whose 200-mile long district runs from Poughkeepsie to Lake Placid, and the former Assembly Minority leader John Faso, all well credentialed in my upstate neck of woods.
Randy Daniels, the former Secretary of State, is the only African-American candidate, very active. A former Democrat (he was part of the Dinkins cabinet), Independent, and WCBS commentator on agriculture and foreign affairs, he was recruited by Pataki, but now has lost the Governor’s support. The party does not trust him entirely, and he will look for support from the Conservatives. But that is a double edged sword, whoever wins their support must pledge to run even if the candidate does not get the Republicans’ endorsement.
But the unity plans has problems. Weld, although relatively free of the carpetbagger label - he is a native New Yorker, and has resided here since the resignation from governorship in MA and the defeat for appointment as ambassador to Mexico (he was stopped by ex-Sen. Jesse Helms of NC, a fellow Republican who hates choice, medicinal marijuana and gay marriage) - also has a credibility problem, although you would not know it from a recent campaign interview by a morning paper. Viewed as an opportunist, with no interests shown in NYS affairs (Clinton, a true outsider, has paid her dues), he has come under criticism as the CEO of Decker College in KY. His equity firm, Leeds Weld, was a minority investor in this private school chain, and when the school came under both federal and state criticism, Weld went down to become the CEO and straighten out things. The criticisms involved false requests of government aid, and unfulfilled program promises for students. The school went bankrupt and Weld left in October, and, although his honesty as a former lawman is impeccable (he was a US DA, with Giuliani), his executive ability is being questioned. Weld has explanations, but the damage will be there, and Giuliani, as of the moment, seems to have left the support group.
The Pirro nomination has cracks too. Joseph Bruno, the Golisano prompter, thinks that Jeanine has a better chance running for NY State Attorney General, energizing the disheartened Republican voters and thus protecting his Senate majority. The A/G race has attracted a powerful list of candidates (Assemblymen Richard Brodsky of Queens and Michael Gianaris of Queens, Mark Lane, Andrew Cuomo, Charlie King, spam-wise Sean Patrick Maloney, Jeff Klein and Denise O’Connell) which Bruno hopes will self-destruct. Hillary has such overwhelming support that running an otherwise electable candidate against her is a waste of talent. Whether Jeanine will eventually agree with him is moot.
The Dems, long satisfied that Spitzer will win the Governorship, have a new problem. Tom Suozzi, Nassau County executive, thinks he has a better chance, as a candidate against gay marriage, and, although not against the Roe v. Wade, as a supporter of late term (“partial birth”) limits. This gives him a better chance with the upstate conservative Democrats and disenchanted Republicans. He agrees with the latter that Spitzer’s support is a “mile wide and an inch deep,” and wants a more midstream approach. Although Suozzi is a Spitzer-type reformer – he cleaned up corrupt Glen Cove, as its Mayor, and has done likewise in the county – Dem leadership looks askance at this late starter, feeling that the 2006 governorship is a done deal without having to court Suozzi supporters at the margins.
Some information on the A/G candidates:
Richard L. Brodsky 92nd AD, NW Westchester, from N Yonkers to Mount Pleasant, is the chair of the committee governing public corporations, MTA, Port Authority and Lower Manhattan Corporation. Formerly chair of Environmental Protection, he issued the Indian Point Nuclear Generating Facility evacuation report that revealed the plants’ weaknesses, and, with Pete Seeger’s Clearvater group, offered regulations to control the pollutants in the plants’ 2 billion gallon daily water intake. He is a former adjunct law professor at St. John’s and Pace.
Michael Granaris, 36th AD, Queens, is a Fordham (summa cum laude) and Harvard Law graduate who entered politics as aide to Congressman Thomas Manton, then to Gov Cuomo, as Queens representative., then as Associate Counsel to NYS Assembly.
Andrew Cuomo, his father’s campaign manager, appointed secretary of HUD by Pres. Clinton, subsequently candidate for NYS Governor.
Charlie King, 1987 NYU Law grad, with Fried, Frank Harris 15 years, now CEO of Praxis, a not for profit housing firm which he rehabilitated. Formed NY County Democratic chair (1992-4), first Black elected to board of ADL.
Sean Patrick Mahoney, with Willkie farr & Gallagher many years, Clinton’s advisor and highest ranking openly gay man on Pres. Clinton’s staff, has years of NYC CB service.
Other candidates:
Tom (Blasé Thomas) Golisano (1942-) is the founder of Paychex, 2nd largest US processor of payrolls. One of founders of the Independence Party in 1994 and its real money backer, his campaigns assured the party’s line in election ballots. In conflict with Independence’s other leader Leonora Fulani who was a Bloomberg backer.
# posted by Wally Dobelis @ 5:35 AM 
