Thursday, November 22, 2007
Siena College Research Institute poll explains NY political climate
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
There are good opinion polls, those that have a consistent base of respondents. While not necessarily trustworthy for absolute numbers, they can still be trusted for reflecting changes in public opinion over time. The Siena College Research Institute is one. Located in the Capitol District, with 620 respondents in their base, conducting monthly surveys, they have shown the shifts in the thinking of 620 registered New York State voters about our leaders through the years.
As of their November 13, 2007 poll, the biggest changes are in Eliot Spitzer’s standings. His job performance is rated as good by 33% of respondents, moving down from 55% in May, and 41% have a favorable opinion of him, down from 75% in January, mostly due to the Troopergate and his intent to grant drivers’ licenses to undocumented aliens (single tier license was objected to by 70%, three-tier by 65%). If it provides any comfort, note that such first-year falls from grace were shared by Gov. George Pataki and Sen. Al DeMoto, both of whom nevertheless were reelected twice.
On the track for Presidency, in the favorable opinion category both Clinton and Giuliani dropped, she from 60% in January to 53%, he from 63% to 49%. Hillary’s drop is due to waffling on big issues, unwilling to risk losing the Left to Obama, with the vague threat of Edwards dropping off and coming out for the man from Chicago. Giuliani loses points because his noble faithfulness to friend Kerik has not enough weight to offset his lack of judgment.
Meanwhile, Mayor Bloomberg’s favorable rating is high, at 65%, and the talk about his candidacy for Presidency is picking up, not to speak of that for the Governorship.
Hillary’s potential for Presidency has already raised questions about her succession, with politicians vying to be the person whom Governor Spitzer will appoint to fill the balance of her term, to 2012. Several interest group candidates are maneuvering for position, first of all Lt. Gov. David Paterson, of whom little is heard state-wise, with Congressman Gregory Meeks of Queens and Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown also mentioned as interested. On the Latino side, State Senator Jose Serrano sees that the Hispanic population of New York has grown to the point that they deserve recognition beyond the House. His father, Rep. Jose Serrano, and Rep. Nadia Velasquez are prospects.
On the gender front, our Rep. Carolyn Maloney, (14th CD, since 1992), former co-chair of the Women’s Caucus, and currently chair of the Financial Institutions Subcommittee of the House Financial Services Committee, dealing with banks, and vice-chair of the Joint Economic Committee, dealing with urgent matters, and founder of the House 7/11 Common Caucus, is meritorious. And Rep. Nita Lowey, from Westchester, who graciously stepped aside for Hillary Clinton in the 2000 Senatorial race, is owed.
If you wonder about our 14th CD, it is the former 17th CD, the glorious Silk-Stocking District once represented by John Lindsay, Theodore Kupferman and Ed Koch. In 1973 it acquired Staten Island, with Guy Molinari in Congress, in 1984 it became the 14th, expanding to Queens, and since the 1993 and 2003 redistrictiings it has Astoria, including Long Island City, Sunnyside and parts of Woodside, and Roosevelt Island. That’s all because NYC lost population, and the redistricting was good for politics, meanwhile losing the neighborhood's identity.
Back to Siena, there’s Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, whose quick evaluation of what is now known as Troopergate caused Spitzer some grief. Cuomo’s Siena favorable rating is up to 56%, well above the early readings in the 40-odd percent category. Other potentials are Robert F. Kennedy Jr., leader of the Hudson River environmentalists, to take his fathers former seat, and Thomas Suozzi, the Nassau County executive and former mayor of Glen Cove, a budget maverick who ran against Spitzer in the primary as a pro-life and anti gay marriage candidate (he’s now with Spitzer). And finally, the possibility that Spitzer will shortcut his upward path by appointing himself to fill the Senate vacancy, with Paterson succeeding him in the Governor’s Mansion..
Is New York on the right track? This Siena pollster question elicited 32% yeses and 46% nos in November, as against 45% and 26% in May. Thomas DiNapoli, the Long Island Assemblyman who was appointed Comptroller by the NYS Legislature Joint Committee after failing in the selection committee (did someone whisper Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver’s name?) to replace Alan Hevesi, against Spitzer’s wishes, has doubled his “favorable “ rating from 7% to 15% (he’s still at the 74% “who he” level). He is the one who warned earlier in the year that NYS is facing a $13B budget shortfall over the next three years.
So, is New York on the right track? Don’t ask me, all I know is what I read in the papers (this time, thanks to NY Times, NY Observer and more, including Alan Chartock, son of the inspiring Dr. Shirley Chartock, and above all, the Siena College Research Institute) – but compared to the nation and the world, we do not have that much to worry about. Happy Thanksgiving!
There are good opinion polls, those that have a consistent base of respondents. While not necessarily trustworthy for absolute numbers, they can still be trusted for reflecting changes in public opinion over time. The Siena College Research Institute is one. Located in the Capitol District, with 620 respondents in their base, conducting monthly surveys, they have shown the shifts in the thinking of 620 registered New York State voters about our leaders through the years.
As of their November 13, 2007 poll, the biggest changes are in Eliot Spitzer’s standings. His job performance is rated as good by 33% of respondents, moving down from 55% in May, and 41% have a favorable opinion of him, down from 75% in January, mostly due to the Troopergate and his intent to grant drivers’ licenses to undocumented aliens (single tier license was objected to by 70%, three-tier by 65%). If it provides any comfort, note that such first-year falls from grace were shared by Gov. George Pataki and Sen. Al DeMoto, both of whom nevertheless were reelected twice.
On the track for Presidency, in the favorable opinion category both Clinton and Giuliani dropped, she from 60% in January to 53%, he from 63% to 49%. Hillary’s drop is due to waffling on big issues, unwilling to risk losing the Left to Obama, with the vague threat of Edwards dropping off and coming out for the man from Chicago. Giuliani loses points because his noble faithfulness to friend Kerik has not enough weight to offset his lack of judgment.
Meanwhile, Mayor Bloomberg’s favorable rating is high, at 65%, and the talk about his candidacy for Presidency is picking up, not to speak of that for the Governorship.
Hillary’s potential for Presidency has already raised questions about her succession, with politicians vying to be the person whom Governor Spitzer will appoint to fill the balance of her term, to 2012. Several interest group candidates are maneuvering for position, first of all Lt. Gov. David Paterson, of whom little is heard state-wise, with Congressman Gregory Meeks of Queens and Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown also mentioned as interested. On the Latino side, State Senator Jose Serrano sees that the Hispanic population of New York has grown to the point that they deserve recognition beyond the House. His father, Rep. Jose Serrano, and Rep. Nadia Velasquez are prospects.
On the gender front, our Rep. Carolyn Maloney, (14th CD, since 1992), former co-chair of the Women’s Caucus, and currently chair of the Financial Institutions Subcommittee of the House Financial Services Committee, dealing with banks, and vice-chair of the Joint Economic Committee, dealing with urgent matters, and founder of the House 7/11 Common Caucus, is meritorious. And Rep. Nita Lowey, from Westchester, who graciously stepped aside for Hillary Clinton in the 2000 Senatorial race, is owed.
If you wonder about our 14th CD, it is the former 17th CD, the glorious Silk-Stocking District once represented by John Lindsay, Theodore Kupferman and Ed Koch. In 1973 it acquired Staten Island, with Guy Molinari in Congress, in 1984 it became the 14th, expanding to Queens, and since the 1993 and 2003 redistrictiings it has Astoria, including Long Island City, Sunnyside and parts of Woodside, and Roosevelt Island. That’s all because NYC lost population, and the redistricting was good for politics, meanwhile losing the neighborhood's identity.
Back to Siena, there’s Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, whose quick evaluation of what is now known as Troopergate caused Spitzer some grief. Cuomo’s Siena favorable rating is up to 56%, well above the early readings in the 40-odd percent category. Other potentials are Robert F. Kennedy Jr., leader of the Hudson River environmentalists, to take his fathers former seat, and Thomas Suozzi, the Nassau County executive and former mayor of Glen Cove, a budget maverick who ran against Spitzer in the primary as a pro-life and anti gay marriage candidate (he’s now with Spitzer). And finally, the possibility that Spitzer will shortcut his upward path by appointing himself to fill the Senate vacancy, with Paterson succeeding him in the Governor’s Mansion..
Is New York on the right track? This Siena pollster question elicited 32% yeses and 46% nos in November, as against 45% and 26% in May. Thomas DiNapoli, the Long Island Assemblyman who was appointed Comptroller by the NYS Legislature Joint Committee after failing in the selection committee (did someone whisper Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver’s name?) to replace Alan Hevesi, against Spitzer’s wishes, has doubled his “favorable “ rating from 7% to 15% (he’s still at the 74% “who he” level). He is the one who warned earlier in the year that NYS is facing a $13B budget shortfall over the next three years.
So, is New York on the right track? Don’t ask me, all I know is what I read in the papers (this time, thanks to NY Times, NY Observer and more, including Alan Chartock, son of the inspiring Dr. Shirley Chartock, and above all, the Siena College Research Institute) – but compared to the nation and the world, we do not have that much to worry about. Happy Thanksgiving!
# posted by Wally Dobelis @ 12:59 AM 
