Thursday, January 24, 2008
NYC Democrats have a new issue – the Obama candidacy
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
There is a new phenomenon on the American political scene that moves those of us who want to think ahead to 2008 to revise our political criteria, first in the basics of electability vs. ideas. What is more important – voting for a set of principles or for the candidate least disagreeable for the most people?
Most voters will resolve it by looking for electability first. In the Democratic Party there has not been much choice, the alternatives were Hillary and non-Hillary, i.e. the field, until Barack Obama decided to consider running. If the junior senator from Illinois had not appeared on the scene at the 2004 Democratic Convention, he would have to have been invented, to pull a politics-tired electorate out of the doldrums of internecine/ partisan/ negative politics. It is not that what he says is so different, it is that he is different, totally counter to the image of a standard politician, young-looking and handsome in a way that clearly shows his mother’s Kansan and his father’s Kenyan heritage.
A product of a broken family, brought up in Hawaii and Indonesia, mainly by his maternal grandparents, graduate of Columbia and Harvard Law (president of the Law Review), author of two books, a father of two and a Christian, he looks like someone who could bring on an era of new politics, of post-partisan and post-civil rights struggle climate, and give us a positive outlook. A law professor with a major dose of cool charisma uncommon for his age, he speaks without screaming or rousing the masses with fighting words, and conveys trustworthiness just by being straight and seeming to mean what he says.
A Republican campaign manager characterizes him as Reagan-likeable, and a Jimmy Stewart “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington” comparison has surfaced. Interestingly, his biggest weakness — lack of experience in national politics — becomes an asset Catch the tenor of what he says: "The decisions that have been made in Washington these past six years, and the problems that have been ignored, have put our country in a precarious place." “America has faced big problems before, but today, our leaders in Washington seem incapable of working together in a practical, commonsense way. Politics has become so bitter and partisan, so gummed up by money and influence, that we can't tackle the big problems that demand solutions." “Americans are struggling financially, dependence on foreign oil threatens the environment and national security and we are still mired in a tragic and costly war that should have never been waged."
These are not dynamic words, but he seems to mean them. As to whether Americans will be able to swallow the lump in their throats and vote for Obama, in the primary and in a general election, is an interesting question. The voters would have readily accepted General Colin Powell, an established rock of reliability with 35 distinguished years of military duty and subsequent government service, also a 2nd generation American, a Bronx kid and CCNY grad, but this youngster… But as of the moment the disgust with old politics is so far-reaching, that he may be seen as the only hope, not just domestically but even more so abroad, to slow down the Iraqi, Iranian, North Korean, Venezuelan, European and other enemities of the old US foreign policy, and give a fresh start to the tired negotiations. The pictures alone, on TV everywhere, repeatedly, of a young person, looking like “them,” not only an ethnic but a true Third-Worlder, not just working for The Man but being The Man himself, he should make them pause and give the US at least a year of of time for reacquiring the democratic stature we have lost.
So Democratic Sen. of Illinois Barack Obama is taking the initial step in a presidential bid that could make him the nation's first Black to occupy the White House. He will announce more about his plans in his home state of Illinois on Feb. 10. "I certainly didn't expect to find myself in this position a year ago," Obama explains, "I have been struck by how hungry we all are for a different kind of politics. So I have spent some time thinking about how I could best advance the cause of change and progress that we so desperately need." Obama’ s decision has now forced Sen. Clinton to actually step forward, with an exploratory committee of her own, taking the attention and the money-givers away from Obama as well as from the field, the other Democrats who have announced campaigns or exploratory committees, 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards, former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd and Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio.
The Democratic clubs of New York City, such as the four in our 74th Ad (Tilden, Eleanor Roosevelt, GSID and CODA), currently resting and enjoying their victories in the 2006 election, may want to start addressing the redefined 2008 issues And now Gov. William Richardson of New Mexico is reopening the thinking about his candidacy in 2008. This suddenly offers a kind of dream ticket for fixing the world, with Obama as the front man and Richardson as the negotiator. Just thinking out loud.
There is a new phenomenon on the American political scene that moves those of us who want to think ahead to 2008 to revise our political criteria, first in the basics of electability vs. ideas. What is more important – voting for a set of principles or for the candidate least disagreeable for the most people?
Most voters will resolve it by looking for electability first. In the Democratic Party there has not been much choice, the alternatives were Hillary and non-Hillary, i.e. the field, until Barack Obama decided to consider running. If the junior senator from Illinois had not appeared on the scene at the 2004 Democratic Convention, he would have to have been invented, to pull a politics-tired electorate out of the doldrums of internecine/ partisan/ negative politics. It is not that what he says is so different, it is that he is different, totally counter to the image of a standard politician, young-looking and handsome in a way that clearly shows his mother’s Kansan and his father’s Kenyan heritage.
A product of a broken family, brought up in Hawaii and Indonesia, mainly by his maternal grandparents, graduate of Columbia and Harvard Law (president of the Law Review), author of two books, a father of two and a Christian, he looks like someone who could bring on an era of new politics, of post-partisan and post-civil rights struggle climate, and give us a positive outlook. A law professor with a major dose of cool charisma uncommon for his age, he speaks without screaming or rousing the masses with fighting words, and conveys trustworthiness just by being straight and seeming to mean what he says.
A Republican campaign manager characterizes him as Reagan-likeable, and a Jimmy Stewart “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington” comparison has surfaced. Interestingly, his biggest weakness — lack of experience in national politics — becomes an asset Catch the tenor of what he says: "The decisions that have been made in Washington these past six years, and the problems that have been ignored, have put our country in a precarious place." “America has faced big problems before, but today, our leaders in Washington seem incapable of working together in a practical, commonsense way. Politics has become so bitter and partisan, so gummed up by money and influence, that we can't tackle the big problems that demand solutions." “Americans are struggling financially, dependence on foreign oil threatens the environment and national security and we are still mired in a tragic and costly war that should have never been waged."
These are not dynamic words, but he seems to mean them. As to whether Americans will be able to swallow the lump in their throats and vote for Obama, in the primary and in a general election, is an interesting question. The voters would have readily accepted General Colin Powell, an established rock of reliability with 35 distinguished years of military duty and subsequent government service, also a 2nd generation American, a Bronx kid and CCNY grad, but this youngster… But as of the moment the disgust with old politics is so far-reaching, that he may be seen as the only hope, not just domestically but even more so abroad, to slow down the Iraqi, Iranian, North Korean, Venezuelan, European and other enemities of the old US foreign policy, and give a fresh start to the tired negotiations. The pictures alone, on TV everywhere, repeatedly, of a young person, looking like “them,” not only an ethnic but a true Third-Worlder, not just working for The Man but being The Man himself, he should make them pause and give the US at least a year of of time for reacquiring the democratic stature we have lost.
So Democratic Sen. of Illinois Barack Obama is taking the initial step in a presidential bid that could make him the nation's first Black to occupy the White House. He will announce more about his plans in his home state of Illinois on Feb. 10. "I certainly didn't expect to find myself in this position a year ago," Obama explains, "I have been struck by how hungry we all are for a different kind of politics. So I have spent some time thinking about how I could best advance the cause of change and progress that we so desperately need." Obama’ s decision has now forced Sen. Clinton to actually step forward, with an exploratory committee of her own, taking the attention and the money-givers away from Obama as well as from the field, the other Democrats who have announced campaigns or exploratory committees, 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards, former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd and Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio.
The Democratic clubs of New York City, such as the four in our 74th Ad (Tilden, Eleanor Roosevelt, GSID and CODA), currently resting and enjoying their victories in the 2006 election, may want to start addressing the redefined 2008 issues And now Gov. William Richardson of New Mexico is reopening the thinking about his candidacy in 2008. This suddenly offers a kind of dream ticket for fixing the world, with Obama as the front man and Richardson as the negotiator. Just thinking out loud.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Trip south reveals the country’s mood
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
If the kids have grown up and left, if you feel life is passing you by, get two kittens. As babies, they will be lovable and playful, after a year or so they will turn into perpetual teenagers. We love ours, although they make vacations difficult.
This winter, looking for warm weather in the Keys, we decided to drive again, down I-95. The economics dictated: the cats’ air fare would equal ours, gas was cheap, the car can be loaded full, insurance was in place, a minilease of an Impala cost about $1000 a month, all the more reason to take to the road. Besides, we would feel the pulse of America, cross-continent north to south.
\
The first trick, though, was finding pet-tolerant motels. We gave up driving because only unclean doggy-smelling rooms were offered, but now times have changed. The Red Roof chain allows pets in all rooms, but it took research to space the trip around them. I want to drive less than 400 miles a day, before dark. The internet research was tricky, because the motel 800 operators don’t know what hostelries are on I-95, so you have to ask for specific towns. But it worked.
Our first stop was Richmond, VA 350 miles south on I-95, after an easy and nearly empty road trip through New Jersey and south. The thought occurred that people were saving money on turnpike tolls. The worrisome part was getting through Washington, DC. In past years Mapquest offered a through route via New York Ave., very confusing, but now it suggests I-495, the Beltway. You have to be sure to stay on it, as described in Mapquest’s cryptic ways, bearing left, and it will work. The room was simple and non-smelly, and I gladly cleaned my cats’ litterbox spills. For politics gossip, I failed, the motel ladies were too discreet, and at Chili’s, the breakfast place (we had sandwiches for the road, and were too tired for dinner) Obama was king. Gas station chat was different, my NJ $1.39 per gallon had turned to $1.65, and post election price rise was the cynics’ response.
Moving along on more crowded road, we came to Florence, SC, arriving in a middle of a windstorm that overturned a maid’s wagon and spilled clean laundry all over the property. Had a fine dinner at a Red Lobster; again, Obama was the savior, until the morning, at the gas station, my remark about the $1.89 price brought on a tirade of N-words , offering expectations of a calamity in a Democrat world. But at the Shoney’s Big Boy, one of the South’s pleasures in all-you can eat breakfast buffets, with 60-odd choices, including grits, we overcame the feeling of disgust. The French toast and fruit helped, and the hospitable people.
Tired of Red Roof, 350 miles south we found a Quality Inn at St. Augustine accepting pets. The trick is to find state hotel guides at 7-11s and gas stations and to use the cell phone on the road. This was larger venue, with better amenities. A neighboring Shoney’s buffet breakfast at seniors’ rates was $3.79 on Tuesdays and Thursdays, and we observed a mixed race two-couple table across from us. Southern politesse prevailed: when one of the ladies returned from her visit to the buffet, both men got up and remained standing until the second lady came back. People would hold doors open and ask others to go ahead as a matter of routine.
Traffic was heavy after St. Augustine, when we switched to the shore-side US1, hoping to view the seaside communities on A1A, along the shoreline sliver island. We did it at Ormond Beach, before Daytona Beach, an actually drove on the sand for some 5 miles at 10 mph, admiring the white breakers and the wide dunes, populated by seagulls and some sweatshirt-robed freezing but persistent sunbathers and walkers. At Wilbur-on-the-Sea we left the dunes to back up and cross to mainland, heading towards astronaut land, Cocoa, and the legendary fish restaurant with low prices, Corky Bell’s.
Staying at a friends’ house in Port St. Lucie, we failed an early start because the cats decided to hide. Two hours were lost, but we got on the road, arriving in the Keys just after dark, having watched our first Florida sunset on the 20-mile land bridge.
If you want to know about popular morale, the working people down South complain a lot less than we northerners, although, when questioned, everybody knows of a job lost, or several. Hospitality workers seem somber, try to be super-polite, no snippiness. Food services and hostelries worry about continuance, but nobody chats, unless asked. Obama is an article of faith. Questions about Caroline Kennedy brought on shrugs, except from a Turkish tourist lady with a German passport, who seemed to know all about her. She liked Carolyn Maloney.
Job offer: A friend sends a message for anyone who is looking for temporary full time employment, with the US Census Bureau, now in full gear: http://www.2010censusjobs.gov or call 1-866-861-2010
If the kids have grown up and left, if you feel life is passing you by, get two kittens. As babies, they will be lovable and playful, after a year or so they will turn into perpetual teenagers. We love ours, although they make vacations difficult.
This winter, looking for warm weather in the Keys, we decided to drive again, down I-95. The economics dictated: the cats’ air fare would equal ours, gas was cheap, the car can be loaded full, insurance was in place, a minilease of an Impala cost about $1000 a month, all the more reason to take to the road. Besides, we would feel the pulse of America, cross-continent north to south.
\
The first trick, though, was finding pet-tolerant motels. We gave up driving because only unclean doggy-smelling rooms were offered, but now times have changed. The Red Roof chain allows pets in all rooms, but it took research to space the trip around them. I want to drive less than 400 miles a day, before dark. The internet research was tricky, because the motel 800 operators don’t know what hostelries are on I-95, so you have to ask for specific towns. But it worked.
Our first stop was Richmond, VA 350 miles south on I-95, after an easy and nearly empty road trip through New Jersey and south. The thought occurred that people were saving money on turnpike tolls. The worrisome part was getting through Washington, DC. In past years Mapquest offered a through route via New York Ave., very confusing, but now it suggests I-495, the Beltway. You have to be sure to stay on it, as described in Mapquest’s cryptic ways, bearing left, and it will work. The room was simple and non-smelly, and I gladly cleaned my cats’ litterbox spills. For politics gossip, I failed, the motel ladies were too discreet, and at Chili’s, the breakfast place (we had sandwiches for the road, and were too tired for dinner) Obama was king. Gas station chat was different, my NJ $1.39 per gallon had turned to $1.65, and post election price rise was the cynics’ response.
Moving along on more crowded road, we came to Florence, SC, arriving in a middle of a windstorm that overturned a maid’s wagon and spilled clean laundry all over the property. Had a fine dinner at a Red Lobster; again, Obama was the savior, until the morning, at the gas station, my remark about the $1.89 price brought on a tirade of N-words , offering expectations of a calamity in a Democrat world. But at the Shoney’s Big Boy, one of the South’s pleasures in all-you can eat breakfast buffets, with 60-odd choices, including grits, we overcame the feeling of disgust. The French toast and fruit helped, and the hospitable people.
Tired of Red Roof, 350 miles south we found a Quality Inn at St. Augustine accepting pets. The trick is to find state hotel guides at 7-11s and gas stations and to use the cell phone on the road. This was larger venue, with better amenities. A neighboring Shoney’s buffet breakfast at seniors’ rates was $3.79 on Tuesdays and Thursdays, and we observed a mixed race two-couple table across from us. Southern politesse prevailed: when one of the ladies returned from her visit to the buffet, both men got up and remained standing until the second lady came back. People would hold doors open and ask others to go ahead as a matter of routine.
Traffic was heavy after St. Augustine, when we switched to the shore-side US1, hoping to view the seaside communities on A1A, along the shoreline sliver island. We did it at Ormond Beach, before Daytona Beach, an actually drove on the sand for some 5 miles at 10 mph, admiring the white breakers and the wide dunes, populated by seagulls and some sweatshirt-robed freezing but persistent sunbathers and walkers. At Wilbur-on-the-Sea we left the dunes to back up and cross to mainland, heading towards astronaut land, Cocoa, and the legendary fish restaurant with low prices, Corky Bell’s.
Staying at a friends’ house in Port St. Lucie, we failed an early start because the cats decided to hide. Two hours were lost, but we got on the road, arriving in the Keys just after dark, having watched our first Florida sunset on the 20-mile land bridge.
If you want to know about popular morale, the working people down South complain a lot less than we northerners, although, when questioned, everybody knows of a job lost, or several. Hospitality workers seem somber, try to be super-polite, no snippiness. Food services and hostelries worry about continuance, but nobody chats, unless asked. Obama is an article of faith. Questions about Caroline Kennedy brought on shrugs, except from a Turkish tourist lady with a German passport, who seemed to know all about her. She liked Carolyn Maloney.
Job offer: A friend sends a message for anyone who is looking for temporary full time employment, with the US Census Bureau, now in full gear: http://www.2010censusjobs.gov or call 1-866-861-2010
Monday, January 21, 2008
World markets, US economy and our Wall Street jobs
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
The markets have stopped the plunge, with Chairman Ben Bernake’s reduction of 75 basis points in the Federal benchmark interest rate. The big banks have been bailed out by Sovereign Wealth Fund investors. Taxpayers will be given a $150B rebate in the spring, to stimulate purchasing. Does this mean the economy will be saved from a recession? Can the East Midtowners feel less stressed about their Wall Street jobs?
Not necessarily, but maybe a bit – economists do worry that the Fed, fighting recession, is fueling inflation, and that the rebate will be used by prudent people to repay debt, rather than stimulate spending. The day-to-day market price stabilization is thin – the highs are not the highest, the lows not the lowest, the ranks of the stocks that come up are shallow. A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of markets prices down. This we have not had, but we are close. Retail numbers are low, but online sales are holding. The holiday retail sales were below expectations, but online sales are up 19%, not quite the 25% of 2006, but not far below the 20% that has been the average since 2002.
Now what about the banks being saved, to the tune of tens of billions of dollars, by the sovereign funds? In late December Merrill Lynch sold $5B new shares to Termasek Holdings, a fund owned by the Finance Department of the Singapore government, another 1.2 to Davis Selected Advisors, a $100B fund manager of Tucson AZ, and 1.3 B worth of its ML Capital to GE.
Citigroup turned over $7.5B of shares to Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, with another $6.8B going to the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation and more to the Kuwait investment Authority in January. The Singapores were already taking $9.7B of the UBS stock, while $5B of Morgan Stanley went to China Investment Corporation. Starting with Citic Securities in China taking $1B of Bear Stearns in fall, some $50B of sovereign fund capital has been invested in weakened US financial institutions. Banks worldwide have written down the value of mortgage backed investments by over $100B, with some fear among analysts that the figure might double in time.
What are these sovereign wealth funds? Well, over the years the oil producers and major exporter countries were content to let their surplus funds rest in US Treasury bonds, but with the weakening of US currency their interests have swung over to investments in banks, investment funds, private companies and real estate. Dr. Edwin M. Truman, a former Assistant Secretary of Treasury under Clinton, currently a Senior Fellow of the Peterson Institute of International Economics, has identified 20 major Sovereign Wealth Funds, ranking from UAE (Abu Dhabi) and thrifty Norway in the $300+B range, to Canada, Iran and New Zealand in the $10B area. Testifying before the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs late last year, he noted that the foreign reserves abroad are in the over $5 Trillion (that’s 5,000 Billion) category – compare that to the US GDP of $12T. The 20 SWFs identified above alone hold $2T.
The SWFs are controlled by politicians as well as economists, and operate in political as well as in global trade interests ( the difference being that economists, for instance, will not recklessly sell off US Treasuries for fear of overall global consequences). These funds are growing, and not all are friendly to US interests. Russia, for instance, has foreign currency reserves of $475B, acquired in windfall profits in oil and gas trading, and we should expect that it will use its growing influence to maintain high oil prices throughout the world. The Mideast oil producers, although speaking of globalism, cannot be expected to surrender their economic might to stabilize the US economy. Their directors now joining the boards of the mightiest US financial institutions are bound to pursue high oil price policies, not in the interests of the world’s largest consumer economy.
There is an effort on part of the bankers to attract US and non-government controlled foreign funds to the continuing bailouts, with the aid of New Jersey’s public pension fund and T. Rowe Price and Capital Research mutual funds, a hedge fund in New York and private investors. Prince Al Walid bin Talal of Saudi Arabia and Sanford I. Weil, the top owners of Citigroup, were making additional personal investments in the latter. The NJ State $81B pension fund will invest $700M in Citigroup and Merrill Lynch. More investments are coming from TPG-Axon, a $9B fund run by a former Goldman executive, and Olayan Group, run by a Saudi investor and Merrill board member, and from Mizuho Financial Group, Japan’s second largest financial institution . It cannot be said that major investors have lost faith in the US institutions. On the other hand, nothing has been heard from NYS and California pension funds, prime powers in finance, and Citicorp’s tightening credit is counterproductive. Hmm…
The markets have stopped the plunge, with Chairman Ben Bernake’s reduction of 75 basis points in the Federal benchmark interest rate. The big banks have been bailed out by Sovereign Wealth Fund investors. Taxpayers will be given a $150B rebate in the spring, to stimulate purchasing. Does this mean the economy will be saved from a recession? Can the East Midtowners feel less stressed about their Wall Street jobs?
Not necessarily, but maybe a bit – economists do worry that the Fed, fighting recession, is fueling inflation, and that the rebate will be used by prudent people to repay debt, rather than stimulate spending. The day-to-day market price stabilization is thin – the highs are not the highest, the lows not the lowest, the ranks of the stocks that come up are shallow. A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of markets prices down. This we have not had, but we are close. Retail numbers are low, but online sales are holding. The holiday retail sales were below expectations, but online sales are up 19%, not quite the 25% of 2006, but not far below the 20% that has been the average since 2002.
Now what about the banks being saved, to the tune of tens of billions of dollars, by the sovereign funds? In late December Merrill Lynch sold $5B new shares to Termasek Holdings, a fund owned by the Finance Department of the Singapore government, another 1.2 to Davis Selected Advisors, a $100B fund manager of Tucson AZ, and 1.3 B worth of its ML Capital to GE.
Citigroup turned over $7.5B of shares to Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, with another $6.8B going to the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation and more to the Kuwait investment Authority in January. The Singapores were already taking $9.7B of the UBS stock, while $5B of Morgan Stanley went to China Investment Corporation. Starting with Citic Securities in China taking $1B of Bear Stearns in fall, some $50B of sovereign fund capital has been invested in weakened US financial institutions. Banks worldwide have written down the value of mortgage backed investments by over $100B, with some fear among analysts that the figure might double in time.
What are these sovereign wealth funds? Well, over the years the oil producers and major exporter countries were content to let their surplus funds rest in US Treasury bonds, but with the weakening of US currency their interests have swung over to investments in banks, investment funds, private companies and real estate. Dr. Edwin M. Truman, a former Assistant Secretary of Treasury under Clinton, currently a Senior Fellow of the Peterson Institute of International Economics, has identified 20 major Sovereign Wealth Funds, ranking from UAE (Abu Dhabi) and thrifty Norway in the $300+B range, to Canada, Iran and New Zealand in the $10B area. Testifying before the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs late last year, he noted that the foreign reserves abroad are in the over $5 Trillion (that’s 5,000 Billion) category – compare that to the US GDP of $12T. The 20 SWFs identified above alone hold $2T.
The SWFs are controlled by politicians as well as economists, and operate in political as well as in global trade interests ( the difference being that economists, for instance, will not recklessly sell off US Treasuries for fear of overall global consequences). These funds are growing, and not all are friendly to US interests. Russia, for instance, has foreign currency reserves of $475B, acquired in windfall profits in oil and gas trading, and we should expect that it will use its growing influence to maintain high oil prices throughout the world. The Mideast oil producers, although speaking of globalism, cannot be expected to surrender their economic might to stabilize the US economy. Their directors now joining the boards of the mightiest US financial institutions are bound to pursue high oil price policies, not in the interests of the world’s largest consumer economy.
There is an effort on part of the bankers to attract US and non-government controlled foreign funds to the continuing bailouts, with the aid of New Jersey’s public pension fund and T. Rowe Price and Capital Research mutual funds, a hedge fund in New York and private investors. Prince Al Walid bin Talal of Saudi Arabia and Sanford I. Weil, the top owners of Citigroup, were making additional personal investments in the latter. The NJ State $81B pension fund will invest $700M in Citigroup and Merrill Lynch. More investments are coming from TPG-Axon, a $9B fund run by a former Goldman executive, and Olayan Group, run by a Saudi investor and Merrill board member, and from Mizuho Financial Group, Japan’s second largest financial institution . It cannot be said that major investors have lost faith in the US institutions. On the other hand, nothing has been heard from NYS and California pension funds, prime powers in finance, and Citicorp’s tightening credit is counterproductive. Hmm…
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Get out and listen – everybody’s a political analyst
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
My internist who occasionally reads my stuff, could not wait to ask me: “So, who do you think will win?” Barely waiting for my diplomatic answer – I had a thermometer in my mouth – he continued: “If you ask me, when all is said and done, Giuliani will be the President. You see, he is smart, letting them all kill themselves and each other in Iowa and New Hampshire. He will come in, in Florida, and take the show. Kerik, police escorts/ Look at what Clinton got away with.. After all he is a 9/11 hero, and can handle emergencies. Taxes, schools, Medicare? Foreign affairs , wars are what counts. There is still time, and Al Quaeda will do an attack or two, or the other terrorists, and we will want a war hero. Bloomberg? He’s vain and listens to those managers eager to take his millions. He’ll be sorry for splintering the Democrats. Obama? Do you rally think that in their heart of hearts Americans are no longer racists? Hm..all your vitals are well, you are in good shape, Happy New Year!” and he was gone. My doctor likes to talk, but he knows when it is time to go to the next examining room.
While dressing and reflecting, I decided to test some of these alarming opinions. Returning to the waiting room I saw one of the detail women who had arrived after me was still there. After a hello I sprung my own “Who do you think will win” trap. Giving me a charming but tired smile, she replied: “Look, I’m trying my best to get to see your doctor. I don’t even know if I’ll make my quota this week. So when do I have time to think?” Abashed, I slunk away. Poor girl, I know this office gets five or six of these drug company callers a day, they are always waiting. Guess why we are paying so much on prescriptions.
Going on the subway train to the office, I decided to try my luck again. Polling on the street is an art, and you must read eyes, body language and hesitations. Showing a press card gives the asker legitimacy, so there is never any rudeness. Well, hardly ever.
My first target was a tall friendly-looking older Hassidic man reading a foreign language sales pamphlet.Loooking at me, then at the card, then me again, he smiled, shrugged his shoulders, wagged his hands up and down as though deciding which of two invisible tomatoes weighed the most, than turned his head negatively a few times and closed the conversation by returning to his reading. A black man, who had watched the action, spoke: “Why don’t you ask me?’ and continued with a verbal salute to Edwards who is for the poor and will do something for them, then pointed me, encouragingly, toward two women tightly squeezed on an end bench. They were hesitant, but my mentor persevered, and finally one spoke: “The woman.” “Yes, me too, about time for a woman,” the other affirmed.
Back in the neighborhood, a professional looking man offered a Huckabee endorsement, without hesitating; two roly-poly middle aged clerical types stopped for a moment and opted for Obama, smiling, while their third companion thought, hesitated, then gave me aserious Not ready. A middle aged thin creased- face man declared himself for no one, muttering about crooks. But I was on a roll, unstoppable. Out on the side street, a young couple with backpacks, smooching: “Yes we are old enough. Yes, to vote, Any Democrat. Yes, both.” An old, old man on a stoop: “This time I really cannot, really cannot decide. Even between parties. I’d say more but you are impatient.” Middle aged woman with bicycle: “any Democrat.” A working man with a Russian accent offered Putin (“You know, I am really an anarchist.”) Then, hearing another tradesman declare himself for Hilary, he rejoined the conversation: “yes, her, she’s ok, but if they will let Obama be the candidate, Democrats will lose.”
In the UPS store, a young man wearing a hood- carrier’s gear was for Hillary; two young women customers declared Obama. Across the street outside Mariella’s, young woman, smiling apologetically ; “ I really don’t know, I should but I don’t.” A store worker, catching a breath outside:, growling, hesitatingly: “ I never vote, they are none any good…maybe I will this time.” And . finally, a confirmation of the doctor’s thesis, a workman with a hand truck; “Giuliani, he did well at nine/eleven. Hey, did you see my picture in the paper, with the Precinct Captain? “
This closed my survey of 22 fairly randomly chosen street respondents, which pro pollsters would report as 12 Democratic, 3 Republican and 7 undecided. But how would they account for the nuances, for the two who think pols are crooks, two to four who probably are covert Republicans, and most alarmingly, two who warn of American racism? No wonder, Iowa and New Hampshire results flabbergasted the pundits. Don’t put your faith and money on the polls.
My internist who occasionally reads my stuff, could not wait to ask me: “So, who do you think will win?” Barely waiting for my diplomatic answer – I had a thermometer in my mouth – he continued: “If you ask me, when all is said and done, Giuliani will be the President. You see, he is smart, letting them all kill themselves and each other in Iowa and New Hampshire. He will come in, in Florida, and take the show. Kerik, police escorts/ Look at what Clinton got away with.. After all he is a 9/11 hero, and can handle emergencies. Taxes, schools, Medicare? Foreign affairs , wars are what counts. There is still time, and Al Quaeda will do an attack or two, or the other terrorists, and we will want a war hero. Bloomberg? He’s vain and listens to those managers eager to take his millions. He’ll be sorry for splintering the Democrats. Obama? Do you rally think that in their heart of hearts Americans are no longer racists? Hm..all your vitals are well, you are in good shape, Happy New Year!” and he was gone. My doctor likes to talk, but he knows when it is time to go to the next examining room.
While dressing and reflecting, I decided to test some of these alarming opinions. Returning to the waiting room I saw one of the detail women who had arrived after me was still there. After a hello I sprung my own “Who do you think will win” trap. Giving me a charming but tired smile, she replied: “Look, I’m trying my best to get to see your doctor. I don’t even know if I’ll make my quota this week. So when do I have time to think?” Abashed, I slunk away. Poor girl, I know this office gets five or six of these drug company callers a day, they are always waiting. Guess why we are paying so much on prescriptions.
Going on the subway train to the office, I decided to try my luck again. Polling on the street is an art, and you must read eyes, body language and hesitations. Showing a press card gives the asker legitimacy, so there is never any rudeness. Well, hardly ever.
My first target was a tall friendly-looking older Hassidic man reading a foreign language sales pamphlet.Loooking at me, then at the card, then me again, he smiled, shrugged his shoulders, wagged his hands up and down as though deciding which of two invisible tomatoes weighed the most, than turned his head negatively a few times and closed the conversation by returning to his reading. A black man, who had watched the action, spoke: “Why don’t you ask me?’ and continued with a verbal salute to Edwards who is for the poor and will do something for them, then pointed me, encouragingly, toward two women tightly squeezed on an end bench. They were hesitant, but my mentor persevered, and finally one spoke: “The woman.” “Yes, me too, about time for a woman,” the other affirmed.
Back in the neighborhood, a professional looking man offered a Huckabee endorsement, without hesitating; two roly-poly middle aged clerical types stopped for a moment and opted for Obama, smiling, while their third companion thought, hesitated, then gave me aserious Not ready. A middle aged thin creased- face man declared himself for no one, muttering about crooks. But I was on a roll, unstoppable. Out on the side street, a young couple with backpacks, smooching: “Yes we are old enough. Yes, to vote, Any Democrat. Yes, both.” An old, old man on a stoop: “This time I really cannot, really cannot decide. Even between parties. I’d say more but you are impatient.” Middle aged woman with bicycle: “any Democrat.” A working man with a Russian accent offered Putin (“You know, I am really an anarchist.”) Then, hearing another tradesman declare himself for Hilary, he rejoined the conversation: “yes, her, she’s ok, but if they will let Obama be the candidate, Democrats will lose.”
In the UPS store, a young man wearing a hood- carrier’s gear was for Hillary; two young women customers declared Obama. Across the street outside Mariella’s, young woman, smiling apologetically ; “ I really don’t know, I should but I don’t.” A store worker, catching a breath outside:, growling, hesitatingly: “ I never vote, they are none any good…maybe I will this time.” And . finally, a confirmation of the doctor’s thesis, a workman with a hand truck; “Giuliani, he did well at nine/eleven. Hey, did you see my picture in the paper, with the Precinct Captain? “
This closed my survey of 22 fairly randomly chosen street respondents, which pro pollsters would report as 12 Democratic, 3 Republican and 7 undecided. But how would they account for the nuances, for the two who think pols are crooks, two to four who probably are covert Republicans, and most alarmingly, two who warn of American racism? No wonder, Iowa and New Hampshire results flabbergasted the pundits. Don’t put your faith and money on the polls.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Social observations on post-New Year partying
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
Damnation on the Michiganders for deciding to cash in on early primary gold and influence in national elections, and taking an act that made Iowa move its event to January 3 and New Hampshire to January 8, giving the greedy Detroit seekers of a national voice the spot on January 15th, and, as a punishment from the NDC, a reduced vote in the national primary. All this nonsense has moved the election campaigning to be an all year event, or actually two-year event, in the process feeding the purses of such useless creatures as campaign managers and pollsters and former politicians turned news analysts.
All this became evident in a post-New Year’s party, when some ten archetypical New Yorker neighbors (that means none were New York born), gathered to celebrate the marriage of two men, faithful companions for 40 years, who had just returned from their marriage in Vancouver, Canada, and a honeymoon on a cruise liner traveling down the shoreline of the Pacific Northwest. Would you think that, mixed with a series of toasts, the immediate topic of the conversation would be the unusual action they had just completed?
No, my dear, the celebrants’ minds immediately turned to Mike Huckabee, the ex-Governor and Senator of Arkansas, particularly after a member of the group, all neighbors in a coop building, expressed some admiration for the charm and graciousness of the Baptist minister turned politician who offered reconciliation of the parties. The speaker was a sophisticated person, and his choice of topic only underlined the popular bitterness with politicians and their mutual accusations that have turned campaigns into reciprocal smear attacks, leaving all participants dirty, and the voters unhappy with their choices between lesser evils. He was immediately verbally jumped by a few participants, which changed the conversation into an attack on more Republican candidates. It turned out that all present were unabashed liberals, and the commonality of the GOPers’ religious undertones in their campaigns and courting of the Silent Majority was upsetting to them.
What an antithesis of a “normal” cocktail party! Only a few years ago politics and religion were taboo at social gatherings, sometimes enforced by the hostess in the interests of avoiding controversy and preserving friendships. But then, have not current events turned the entire world upside down and changed the nature of our daily thinking, by turning us to considering the global consequences of, say, shopping for food and household items? In buying a light bulb or an appliance, is not part of the act awareness and bitterness over the fact that nearly every manufactured item comes from China or another foreign country, robbing some Americans of the opportunity of earning a livelihood? Likewise, does not every tank of gasoline purchased, relentlessly more and more expensive, brings on the thoughts of dependence on foreign resources and oil politics, and need for greenness? Just entering Warshaw’s hardware store starts the conversation about how by 2010 the ordinary light bulb will be gone, replaced by a twisted fluorescent that saves energy, at which point another customer jumps in, observing that incandescents waste 80% of the energy used by turning it into heat.
Enough globalize woes. Getting back to the party, the group conversation quickly swung into abortion (“It’s my body,” with reservations), mercy killings (“the civilized thing to do”), returning to politics when someone observed that we had been skirting the really important topic, a female President vs. a Black one. That brought on a brief flurry of observations about how the entire country was getting to be less racist, given Senator Barack Obama’s victory in the Midwestern nearly white Iowa, which quickly turned to a condemnation of the unjust caucuses, which favor the young and healthy voter, demanding a day’s worth of physical activity, leaving the infirm and wheelchair bound unable to express their choices. Hardly a word about Hillary, the preference of several participants, whole loss in Iowa left some of participants silently woeful of the future.
Finally we got out into something more real – how does a nice Jewish girl find a proper partner in New York - and the movies. I had been at an office luncheon, where movies and trade chitchat were the only topics discussed, affirming my belief in the old norm about avoiding election and faith talk whenever people meet socially. Oh yes, we also bashed incomprehensible television commercials that have no bearing on the product advertised – a nearly universal complaint.
Our East Midtown cocktail party also eventually turned to movies, to my surprise concentrating on a bloody West Texas murder mystery with social implications that several members had liked – No Country for Old Men, a Coen brothers’ creation, with no star actors. Sweeney Todd the Demon Barber of Fleet Street was the other movie topic, comparing it to the original Steven Sondheim stage musical, with some words about Johnny Depp’s weird characterizations. We were together for three hours plus, and loathed to break. Oh yeah, what do liberals drink and eat for New Year? Well, we destroyed at least a half-dozen bottles of Roederer’s 25th Anniversary champagne, and ate lox canapés, with dips of green and red vegetables, both fresh and broiled.
Happy New Year to all readers and their families, from the T&V staff.
Damnation on the Michiganders for deciding to cash in on early primary gold and influence in national elections, and taking an act that made Iowa move its event to January 3 and New Hampshire to January 8, giving the greedy Detroit seekers of a national voice the spot on January 15th, and, as a punishment from the NDC, a reduced vote in the national primary. All this nonsense has moved the election campaigning to be an all year event, or actually two-year event, in the process feeding the purses of such useless creatures as campaign managers and pollsters and former politicians turned news analysts.
All this became evident in a post-New Year’s party, when some ten archetypical New Yorker neighbors (that means none were New York born), gathered to celebrate the marriage of two men, faithful companions for 40 years, who had just returned from their marriage in Vancouver, Canada, and a honeymoon on a cruise liner traveling down the shoreline of the Pacific Northwest. Would you think that, mixed with a series of toasts, the immediate topic of the conversation would be the unusual action they had just completed?
No, my dear, the celebrants’ minds immediately turned to Mike Huckabee, the ex-Governor and Senator of Arkansas, particularly after a member of the group, all neighbors in a coop building, expressed some admiration for the charm and graciousness of the Baptist minister turned politician who offered reconciliation of the parties. The speaker was a sophisticated person, and his choice of topic only underlined the popular bitterness with politicians and their mutual accusations that have turned campaigns into reciprocal smear attacks, leaving all participants dirty, and the voters unhappy with their choices between lesser evils. He was immediately verbally jumped by a few participants, which changed the conversation into an attack on more Republican candidates. It turned out that all present were unabashed liberals, and the commonality of the GOPers’ religious undertones in their campaigns and courting of the Silent Majority was upsetting to them.
What an antithesis of a “normal” cocktail party! Only a few years ago politics and religion were taboo at social gatherings, sometimes enforced by the hostess in the interests of avoiding controversy and preserving friendships. But then, have not current events turned the entire world upside down and changed the nature of our daily thinking, by turning us to considering the global consequences of, say, shopping for food and household items? In buying a light bulb or an appliance, is not part of the act awareness and bitterness over the fact that nearly every manufactured item comes from China or another foreign country, robbing some Americans of the opportunity of earning a livelihood? Likewise, does not every tank of gasoline purchased, relentlessly more and more expensive, brings on the thoughts of dependence on foreign resources and oil politics, and need for greenness? Just entering Warshaw’s hardware store starts the conversation about how by 2010 the ordinary light bulb will be gone, replaced by a twisted fluorescent that saves energy, at which point another customer jumps in, observing that incandescents waste 80% of the energy used by turning it into heat.
Enough globalize woes. Getting back to the party, the group conversation quickly swung into abortion (“It’s my body,” with reservations), mercy killings (“the civilized thing to do”), returning to politics when someone observed that we had been skirting the really important topic, a female President vs. a Black one. That brought on a brief flurry of observations about how the entire country was getting to be less racist, given Senator Barack Obama’s victory in the Midwestern nearly white Iowa, which quickly turned to a condemnation of the unjust caucuses, which favor the young and healthy voter, demanding a day’s worth of physical activity, leaving the infirm and wheelchair bound unable to express their choices. Hardly a word about Hillary, the preference of several participants, whole loss in Iowa left some of participants silently woeful of the future.
Finally we got out into something more real – how does a nice Jewish girl find a proper partner in New York - and the movies. I had been at an office luncheon, where movies and trade chitchat were the only topics discussed, affirming my belief in the old norm about avoiding election and faith talk whenever people meet socially. Oh yes, we also bashed incomprehensible television commercials that have no bearing on the product advertised – a nearly universal complaint.
Our East Midtown cocktail party also eventually turned to movies, to my surprise concentrating on a bloody West Texas murder mystery with social implications that several members had liked – No Country for Old Men, a Coen brothers’ creation, with no star actors. Sweeney Todd the Demon Barber of Fleet Street was the other movie topic, comparing it to the original Steven Sondheim stage musical, with some words about Johnny Depp’s weird characterizations. We were together for three hours plus, and loathed to break. Oh yeah, what do liberals drink and eat for New Year? Well, we destroyed at least a half-dozen bottles of Roederer’s 25th Anniversary champagne, and ate lox canapés, with dips of green and red vegetables, both fresh and broiled.
Happy New Year to all readers and their families, from the T&V staff.
