Thursday, January 17, 2008
Get out and listen – everybody’s a political analyst
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
My internist who occasionally reads my stuff, could not wait to ask me: “So, who do you think will win?” Barely waiting for my diplomatic answer – I had a thermometer in my mouth – he continued: “If you ask me, when all is said and done, Giuliani will be the President. You see, he is smart, letting them all kill themselves and each other in Iowa and New Hampshire. He will come in, in Florida, and take the show. Kerik, police escorts/ Look at what Clinton got away with.. After all he is a 9/11 hero, and can handle emergencies. Taxes, schools, Medicare? Foreign affairs , wars are what counts. There is still time, and Al Quaeda will do an attack or two, or the other terrorists, and we will want a war hero. Bloomberg? He’s vain and listens to those managers eager to take his millions. He’ll be sorry for splintering the Democrats. Obama? Do you rally think that in their heart of hearts Americans are no longer racists? Hm..all your vitals are well, you are in good shape, Happy New Year!” and he was gone. My doctor likes to talk, but he knows when it is time to go to the next examining room.
While dressing and reflecting, I decided to test some of these alarming opinions. Returning to the waiting room I saw one of the detail women who had arrived after me was still there. After a hello I sprung my own “Who do you think will win” trap. Giving me a charming but tired smile, she replied: “Look, I’m trying my best to get to see your doctor. I don’t even know if I’ll make my quota this week. So when do I have time to think?” Abashed, I slunk away. Poor girl, I know this office gets five or six of these drug company callers a day, they are always waiting. Guess why we are paying so much on prescriptions.
Going on the subway train to the office, I decided to try my luck again. Polling on the street is an art, and you must read eyes, body language and hesitations. Showing a press card gives the asker legitimacy, so there is never any rudeness. Well, hardly ever.
My first target was a tall friendly-looking older Hassidic man reading a foreign language sales pamphlet.Loooking at me, then at the card, then me again, he smiled, shrugged his shoulders, wagged his hands up and down as though deciding which of two invisible tomatoes weighed the most, than turned his head negatively a few times and closed the conversation by returning to his reading. A black man, who had watched the action, spoke: “Why don’t you ask me?’ and continued with a verbal salute to Edwards who is for the poor and will do something for them, then pointed me, encouragingly, toward two women tightly squeezed on an end bench. They were hesitant, but my mentor persevered, and finally one spoke: “The woman.” “Yes, me too, about time for a woman,” the other affirmed.
Back in the neighborhood, a professional looking man offered a Huckabee endorsement, without hesitating; two roly-poly middle aged clerical types stopped for a moment and opted for Obama, smiling, while their third companion thought, hesitated, then gave me aserious Not ready. A middle aged thin creased- face man declared himself for no one, muttering about crooks. But I was on a roll, unstoppable. Out on the side street, a young couple with backpacks, smooching: “Yes we are old enough. Yes, to vote, Any Democrat. Yes, both.” An old, old man on a stoop: “This time I really cannot, really cannot decide. Even between parties. I’d say more but you are impatient.” Middle aged woman with bicycle: “any Democrat.” A working man with a Russian accent offered Putin (“You know, I am really an anarchist.”) Then, hearing another tradesman declare himself for Hilary, he rejoined the conversation: “yes, her, she’s ok, but if they will let Obama be the candidate, Democrats will lose.”
In the UPS store, a young man wearing a hood- carrier’s gear was for Hillary; two young women customers declared Obama. Across the street outside Mariella’s, young woman, smiling apologetically ; “ I really don’t know, I should but I don’t.” A store worker, catching a breath outside:, growling, hesitatingly: “ I never vote, they are none any good…maybe I will this time.” And . finally, a confirmation of the doctor’s thesis, a workman with a hand truck; “Giuliani, he did well at nine/eleven. Hey, did you see my picture in the paper, with the Precinct Captain? “
This closed my survey of 22 fairly randomly chosen street respondents, which pro pollsters would report as 12 Democratic, 3 Republican and 7 undecided. But how would they account for the nuances, for the two who think pols are crooks, two to four who probably are covert Republicans, and most alarmingly, two who warn of American racism? No wonder, Iowa and New Hampshire results flabbergasted the pundits. Don’t put your faith and money on the polls.
My internist who occasionally reads my stuff, could not wait to ask me: “So, who do you think will win?” Barely waiting for my diplomatic answer – I had a thermometer in my mouth – he continued: “If you ask me, when all is said and done, Giuliani will be the President. You see, he is smart, letting them all kill themselves and each other in Iowa and New Hampshire. He will come in, in Florida, and take the show. Kerik, police escorts/ Look at what Clinton got away with.. After all he is a 9/11 hero, and can handle emergencies. Taxes, schools, Medicare? Foreign affairs , wars are what counts. There is still time, and Al Quaeda will do an attack or two, or the other terrorists, and we will want a war hero. Bloomberg? He’s vain and listens to those managers eager to take his millions. He’ll be sorry for splintering the Democrats. Obama? Do you rally think that in their heart of hearts Americans are no longer racists? Hm..all your vitals are well, you are in good shape, Happy New Year!” and he was gone. My doctor likes to talk, but he knows when it is time to go to the next examining room.
While dressing and reflecting, I decided to test some of these alarming opinions. Returning to the waiting room I saw one of the detail women who had arrived after me was still there. After a hello I sprung my own “Who do you think will win” trap. Giving me a charming but tired smile, she replied: “Look, I’m trying my best to get to see your doctor. I don’t even know if I’ll make my quota this week. So when do I have time to think?” Abashed, I slunk away. Poor girl, I know this office gets five or six of these drug company callers a day, they are always waiting. Guess why we are paying so much on prescriptions.
Going on the subway train to the office, I decided to try my luck again. Polling on the street is an art, and you must read eyes, body language and hesitations. Showing a press card gives the asker legitimacy, so there is never any rudeness. Well, hardly ever.
My first target was a tall friendly-looking older Hassidic man reading a foreign language sales pamphlet.Loooking at me, then at the card, then me again, he smiled, shrugged his shoulders, wagged his hands up and down as though deciding which of two invisible tomatoes weighed the most, than turned his head negatively a few times and closed the conversation by returning to his reading. A black man, who had watched the action, spoke: “Why don’t you ask me?’ and continued with a verbal salute to Edwards who is for the poor and will do something for them, then pointed me, encouragingly, toward two women tightly squeezed on an end bench. They were hesitant, but my mentor persevered, and finally one spoke: “The woman.” “Yes, me too, about time for a woman,” the other affirmed.
Back in the neighborhood, a professional looking man offered a Huckabee endorsement, without hesitating; two roly-poly middle aged clerical types stopped for a moment and opted for Obama, smiling, while their third companion thought, hesitated, then gave me aserious Not ready. A middle aged thin creased- face man declared himself for no one, muttering about crooks. But I was on a roll, unstoppable. Out on the side street, a young couple with backpacks, smooching: “Yes we are old enough. Yes, to vote, Any Democrat. Yes, both.” An old, old man on a stoop: “This time I really cannot, really cannot decide. Even between parties. I’d say more but you are impatient.” Middle aged woman with bicycle: “any Democrat.” A working man with a Russian accent offered Putin (“You know, I am really an anarchist.”) Then, hearing another tradesman declare himself for Hilary, he rejoined the conversation: “yes, her, she’s ok, but if they will let Obama be the candidate, Democrats will lose.”
In the UPS store, a young man wearing a hood- carrier’s gear was for Hillary; two young women customers declared Obama. Across the street outside Mariella’s, young woman, smiling apologetically ; “ I really don’t know, I should but I don’t.” A store worker, catching a breath outside:, growling, hesitatingly: “ I never vote, they are none any good…maybe I will this time.” And . finally, a confirmation of the doctor’s thesis, a workman with a hand truck; “Giuliani, he did well at nine/eleven. Hey, did you see my picture in the paper, with the Precinct Captain? “
This closed my survey of 22 fairly randomly chosen street respondents, which pro pollsters would report as 12 Democratic, 3 Republican and 7 undecided. But how would they account for the nuances, for the two who think pols are crooks, two to four who probably are covert Republicans, and most alarmingly, two who warn of American racism? No wonder, Iowa and New Hampshire results flabbergasted the pundits. Don’t put your faith and money on the polls.
# posted by Wally Dobelis @ 7:16 AM 
