Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Combining economic and environmental solutions – go nuclear
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
Does the declining dollar push the oil prices up or is it the other way around? I don’t really care, the fact is that they work in tandem. What we should care about is that we have reached a historic moment: the dollar I at its lowest, about $1.50 to the Euro, and oil costs above $110 a barrel, with gasoline moving from $3.35 to $ 4 , with perhaps $5 on the horizon.
Even the greatest optimist SUV owners of Stuyvesant town must be getting the message; the February sales of cars are down 4.9%, while light trucks (SUVs) declined 14.1%. At an annual volume of 7M cars and 8M SUVs, Chrysler, GM, Hyundai lost in double digits. Even Toyota did not remain unscathed; its Corolla lost 27%, followed by Chevy’s big Silverado and GM’s Sierra, while the Chew’s compact Cobalt and Pontiac’s G6 made gains (49 and 44%). With GM’s market share down 1.7%, to 24.3%, the giant has offered buyouts to 74,000 employees, following last month’s Ford’s offer to 54,000 employees. It is not as deadly as it looks, some 46,000 employees are already eligible for retirement, and will receive full benefits plus $46K to $63K in cash. Note that the company hopes to save billions on new replacement employees – under the new contract GM can hire up to 16,000 people at $16 or less per hour, as opposed to the $28 /hr under the old union contract.
The possibly good but definitely painful news is that the new pay scale trend may help US to regain some of its industrial standing in this post-industrial world, where our country, along with Western Europe, and, surprisingly, Japan, have become heavily service oriented – from US 50% manufacturing jobs (of total population of 150M, 40M employed) in the 1950s, to under 20 % in the 2000s (total 300M, 130M employed). This lower labor cost may partly reverse, by 2010, the balance of payments and restore some of the value of the dollar. The sickening news is that the American standard of living will go down and the great consumer economy will flatten out. We will have to curb our dreams and expectations. The saving factors for the US economy will be continued advances in technology, to keep us a step ahead, and the continued willingness of Americans to work hard and spend more hours at our jobs, a characteristic that has bailed us out before.
Reviewing the cost side, energy has been the main item, and it is evident that we finally are getting serious about renewable energy. For example, in Arizona, Nevada and California deserts, solar thermal plants re being constructed, with the aid of Spanish experts, on the principle of generating steam , just like coal-fired plants, except that the sources of heat are thousands of concave mirrors concentrating solar heat on a ”tower of power. Not as Buck Rogers as it seems, .currently eight plants are in construction, in Spain, Algeria and Morocco, with more planned in China. Further, large wind farm projects in barren parts of the country have been taken up by the oil companies, sensing the potential of a good profit margin. Transfer of energy without excessive power loss will requite growth in major transmission lines across the country, and cars and gas stations will require big changes. Fuel cells are an already a reality, with hydrogen/gasoline/hybrid engines in cars being tested by major car producers. White Plains municipality is putting up a hydrogen fuel station for government and private cars, the latter being lent to consumers for three-month test periods.
.
With all these good hopes, we have to come to a reality check. Globally, renewable energy still constitutes only 18% of energy resources, of which 13% comes from wood, a slow grower and an environmentally bad CO producer. Whether we like or not, renewable energy is slow to arrive and inadequate in volume. Some 600 coal-fired electric plants are responsible for 36% of the US CO2 emissions , that’s 10% of the world’s volume. Some 103 nuclear plants provide the US with 20% of its energy, and 80% of their neighbors have no problems. France, 75% nuclear, has been providing neighboring Germany and non-nuclear Italy with electricity for years. The Three Mile Island accident in 1979 that scared us off was a success in control, while the Chernobyl 1986 disaster cost 56 directly attributable deaths from burns and radiation. Although hundreds of miners died in the early years of uranium mining, think of current 5,000 annual deaths from coal-mining.
Given the dangers of global warming, even Al Gore and Patrick White, founder of Greenpeace, see the need for revisiting nuclear power. Japan, France, Britain and Russia have joined in recycling of nuclear used fuel (“waste”), which still contains 95% of potential power, which reduces the dangers of storage (also, used fuel after 40 years has less than one-thousandth of the radioactivity). The danger from terrorist attacks is dealt with by having six-foot reinforced concrete containment vessels , which protect the contents from inside as well as from outside. With the dangers of global warning, much of Europe wants to be nuclear. This may also be our long-term economic as well as environmental solution.
My thanks to Patrick White.
Does the declining dollar push the oil prices up or is it the other way around? I don’t really care, the fact is that they work in tandem. What we should care about is that we have reached a historic moment: the dollar I at its lowest, about $1.50 to the Euro, and oil costs above $110 a barrel, with gasoline moving from $3.35 to $ 4 , with perhaps $5 on the horizon.
Even the greatest optimist SUV owners of Stuyvesant town must be getting the message; the February sales of cars are down 4.9%, while light trucks (SUVs) declined 14.1%. At an annual volume of 7M cars and 8M SUVs, Chrysler, GM, Hyundai lost in double digits. Even Toyota did not remain unscathed; its Corolla lost 27%, followed by Chevy’s big Silverado and GM’s Sierra, while the Chew’s compact Cobalt and Pontiac’s G6 made gains (49 and 44%). With GM’s market share down 1.7%, to 24.3%, the giant has offered buyouts to 74,000 employees, following last month’s Ford’s offer to 54,000 employees. It is not as deadly as it looks, some 46,000 employees are already eligible for retirement, and will receive full benefits plus $46K to $63K in cash. Note that the company hopes to save billions on new replacement employees – under the new contract GM can hire up to 16,000 people at $16 or less per hour, as opposed to the $28 /hr under the old union contract.
The possibly good but definitely painful news is that the new pay scale trend may help US to regain some of its industrial standing in this post-industrial world, where our country, along with Western Europe, and, surprisingly, Japan, have become heavily service oriented – from US 50% manufacturing jobs (of total population of 150M, 40M employed) in the 1950s, to under 20 % in the 2000s (total 300M, 130M employed). This lower labor cost may partly reverse, by 2010, the balance of payments and restore some of the value of the dollar. The sickening news is that the American standard of living will go down and the great consumer economy will flatten out. We will have to curb our dreams and expectations. The saving factors for the US economy will be continued advances in technology, to keep us a step ahead, and the continued willingness of Americans to work hard and spend more hours at our jobs, a characteristic that has bailed us out before.
Reviewing the cost side, energy has been the main item, and it is evident that we finally are getting serious about renewable energy. For example, in Arizona, Nevada and California deserts, solar thermal plants re being constructed, with the aid of Spanish experts, on the principle of generating steam , just like coal-fired plants, except that the sources of heat are thousands of concave mirrors concentrating solar heat on a ”tower of power. Not as Buck Rogers as it seems, .currently eight plants are in construction, in Spain, Algeria and Morocco, with more planned in China. Further, large wind farm projects in barren parts of the country have been taken up by the oil companies, sensing the potential of a good profit margin. Transfer of energy without excessive power loss will requite growth in major transmission lines across the country, and cars and gas stations will require big changes. Fuel cells are an already a reality, with hydrogen/gasoline/hybrid engines in cars being tested by major car producers. White Plains municipality is putting up a hydrogen fuel station for government and private cars, the latter being lent to consumers for three-month test periods.
.
With all these good hopes, we have to come to a reality check. Globally, renewable energy still constitutes only 18% of energy resources, of which 13% comes from wood, a slow grower and an environmentally bad CO producer. Whether we like or not, renewable energy is slow to arrive and inadequate in volume. Some 600 coal-fired electric plants are responsible for 36% of the US CO2 emissions , that’s 10% of the world’s volume. Some 103 nuclear plants provide the US with 20% of its energy, and 80% of their neighbors have no problems. France, 75% nuclear, has been providing neighboring Germany and non-nuclear Italy with electricity for years. The Three Mile Island accident in 1979 that scared us off was a success in control, while the Chernobyl 1986 disaster cost 56 directly attributable deaths from burns and radiation. Although hundreds of miners died in the early years of uranium mining, think of current 5,000 annual deaths from coal-mining.
Given the dangers of global warming, even Al Gore and Patrick White, founder of Greenpeace, see the need for revisiting nuclear power. Japan, France, Britain and Russia have joined in recycling of nuclear used fuel (“waste”), which still contains 95% of potential power, which reduces the dangers of storage (also, used fuel after 40 years has less than one-thousandth of the radioactivity). The danger from terrorist attacks is dealt with by having six-foot reinforced concrete containment vessels , which protect the contents from inside as well as from outside. With the dangers of global warning, much of Europe wants to be nuclear. This may also be our long-term economic as well as environmental solution.
My thanks to Patrick White.
# posted by Wally Dobelis @ 6:27 AM 
