Thursday, June 26, 2008
New Yorkers rate politicians, historians rate Presidents
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
Now that the political leaderships have stabilized, it becomes interesting how the attitudes of New Yorkers have changed, or have they?
The Siena Research Institute’s monthly NY Poll of 820 registered voters has a good record of identifying voter opinions, favorable vs. unfavorable, and the June 9 ratings are revealing.
From the top: if Presidential elections were today, the June 2008 "Obama/McCain/don’t know" percentage of vote projection would be 51/33/17. vs. May 2008 49/38/14, with a steady 45/40/15 range going back to Jan. 2007 (the total does not always add to 100% because of rounding).
In the "favorable/not favorable opinion" categories, Obama was 58/30 in June 2008, up from a 55/34 in May, rising from 48 to a sometime 60 since Nov. 2006. Clinton’s favorable/unfavorable in June was 56/38, vs. 55/34 in May, starting with an unbeatable 60+ in 2005/6. dropping to steady series of 50s in 2007. McCain’s favorable/unfavorable in June was 42/47 vs. 49/39 in May, down from a 56 in Nov. 2006 to a subsequent steady 40s.
For Governor, Paterson has a favorable/unfavorable rating of 57/17 in June, 48/17 in May. His executive leadership for June is 75, combining excellent, good and fair ratings of 6, 38, 31, vs. 68 in May (5, 35, and 28). For the 2010 Gubernatorial election, his June favorable/unfavorable rating is 33/30 vs. 30/25 in May; running against Bloomberg he would lose 34/45 and 36/45, while winning against Cuomo 43/31 and 42/29. In general, Bloomberg’s f/nf numbers, steady for the past 12 months, is 58/30 and 65/19, while Cuomo’s run to 54/22, with job performance 54/32, his best ever.
On the complex issue of same sex marriage, the favorable/unfavorable rating was 46/40. Divided by voter groups, the affirmatives came from Democrats, the 18-34 year-olds, and Jewish voters, with predominant negatives from Republicans, Catholics, Protestants, African –Americans and the 55+ year-olds. On choice, 35% were for marriage, 40 for civil union and 19 for non-recognition, with only 6 undecided. The Governor’s ruling to recognize same-sex marriages performed legally outside NYS received a f/nf of 55/37. Overall, three quarters of New Yorkers want some form of recognition of same-sex couples.
On the question of whether New York State is "on the right track/wrong direction" the poll numbers are negative, 30/46 for June, 32/43 for May. The Spitzer numbers were mostly positive, Nov. 2006 to Oct. 2007, 40s/30s, turning negative thereafter. The Pataki numbers 2005 through 2006 were mostly negative, 30s/40s. The only groups that saw NYS as being on the right track were the Jewish and African- American voters.
A big issue, particularly in areas with predominantly single-family residences, was property tax. Property tax cap for people who received 7% or higher increases in each of past 5 years was given a f/nf 76/14 overall rating: 55’22 in NYC, 80/12 in the suburbs and 79/12 upstate. There were subsets, e.g. a taxable income based cap, and school tax considerations, with the seniors and teachers having different horses in the race.
Finally, control of the NYS Senate, with 48% favoring Democrats, vs. 41% for Republicans. That’s in a state with 47% registered Democratic voters. Vs 27% GOP. One would guess that we don’t like one-party control. Draw your own conclusions.
Since 1982 Siena also been collecting ratings of US Presidents, most recently by several hundred scholars. Herewith its 2002 ratings of recent Presidents, juxtaposed with Wall Street Journal 2006 scores: Kennedy 14/15, Johnson 15/18, Nixon 26/32, Ford 28/28, Carter 25/34, Reagan 16/6, Bush 22/21, Clinton 18/22, Bush 23/19 (the Siena score was shortly after 9/11). Despite avowed political equalization of balance between scholars, biases cannot be avoided, as shown in the Reagan, Carter and Nixon ratings.
The 1982 Murray-Blessing rating of 10 Best Presidents by 846 historians shows remarkable consistency between Liberal and Conservative scholars, with 9 of 10 appearing on both sides – Lincoln, F. D. Roosevelt, Washington, Jefferson, T. Roosevelt, Wilson, Jackson, Truman, John Adams – the single inconsistency being L. B. Johnson on the Left and Eisenhower on the Right. Subsequent lists have more differences, with Reagan added in nearly all cases. As for more up-to-date readings of G. W. Bush, a 2006 Siena poll of 744 scholars asking for a rating after 5 years of Presidency, he gets a 2% Good, 5% Nearly Good, 11% Average, 24% Below Average and 58% Failure score. A 2008 History News Network poll of self selected scholars gave him a 98% Failure and a 61% Worst in History rating.
Murray-Blessing also has the Seven Worst Presidents, with six names appearing consistently for both Liberals and Conservatives – Pierce, Andrew Johnson, Buchanan, Grant, Nixon and Harding at the bottom, with Coolidge and Carter the alternates on the left and right. Nixon is a changeling, in four of eight scholarly ratings he escapes the Seven Worst rank, with Liberals for his environmentalist record, with Conservatives as a foreign policy doer.
Wally Dobelis thanks SRI and Prof. Alan Chartock
Now that the political leaderships have stabilized, it becomes interesting how the attitudes of New Yorkers have changed, or have they?
The Siena Research Institute’s monthly NY Poll of 820 registered voters has a good record of identifying voter opinions, favorable vs. unfavorable, and the June 9 ratings are revealing.
From the top: if Presidential elections were today, the June 2008 "Obama/McCain/don’t know" percentage of vote projection would be 51/33/17. vs. May 2008 49/38/14, with a steady 45/40/15 range going back to Jan. 2007 (the total does not always add to 100% because of rounding).
In the "favorable/not favorable opinion" categories, Obama was 58/30 in June 2008, up from a 55/34 in May, rising from 48 to a sometime 60 since Nov. 2006. Clinton’s favorable/unfavorable in June was 56/38, vs. 55/34 in May, starting with an unbeatable 60+ in 2005/6. dropping to steady series of 50s in 2007. McCain’s favorable/unfavorable in June was 42/47 vs. 49/39 in May, down from a 56 in Nov. 2006 to a subsequent steady 40s.
For Governor, Paterson has a favorable/unfavorable rating of 57/17 in June, 48/17 in May. His executive leadership for June is 75, combining excellent, good and fair ratings of 6, 38, 31, vs. 68 in May (5, 35, and 28). For the 2010 Gubernatorial election, his June favorable/unfavorable rating is 33/30 vs. 30/25 in May; running against Bloomberg he would lose 34/45 and 36/45, while winning against Cuomo 43/31 and 42/29. In general, Bloomberg’s f/nf numbers, steady for the past 12 months, is 58/30 and 65/19, while Cuomo’s run to 54/22, with job performance 54/32, his best ever.
On the complex issue of same sex marriage, the favorable/unfavorable rating was 46/40. Divided by voter groups, the affirmatives came from Democrats, the 18-34 year-olds, and Jewish voters, with predominant negatives from Republicans, Catholics, Protestants, African –Americans and the 55+ year-olds. On choice, 35% were for marriage, 40 for civil union and 19 for non-recognition, with only 6 undecided. The Governor’s ruling to recognize same-sex marriages performed legally outside NYS received a f/nf of 55/37. Overall, three quarters of New Yorkers want some form of recognition of same-sex couples.
On the question of whether New York State is "on the right track/wrong direction" the poll numbers are negative, 30/46 for June, 32/43 for May. The Spitzer numbers were mostly positive, Nov. 2006 to Oct. 2007, 40s/30s, turning negative thereafter. The Pataki numbers 2005 through 2006 were mostly negative, 30s/40s. The only groups that saw NYS as being on the right track were the Jewish and African- American voters.
A big issue, particularly in areas with predominantly single-family residences, was property tax. Property tax cap for people who received 7% or higher increases in each of past 5 years was given a f/nf 76/14 overall rating: 55’22 in NYC, 80/12 in the suburbs and 79/12 upstate. There were subsets, e.g. a taxable income based cap, and school tax considerations, with the seniors and teachers having different horses in the race.
Finally, control of the NYS Senate, with 48% favoring Democrats, vs. 41% for Republicans. That’s in a state with 47% registered Democratic voters. Vs 27% GOP. One would guess that we don’t like one-party control. Draw your own conclusions.
Since 1982 Siena also been collecting ratings of US Presidents, most recently by several hundred scholars. Herewith its 2002 ratings of recent Presidents, juxtaposed with Wall Street Journal 2006 scores: Kennedy 14/15, Johnson 15/18, Nixon 26/32, Ford 28/28, Carter 25/34, Reagan 16/6, Bush 22/21, Clinton 18/22, Bush 23/19 (the Siena score was shortly after 9/11). Despite avowed political equalization of balance between scholars, biases cannot be avoided, as shown in the Reagan, Carter and Nixon ratings.
The 1982 Murray-Blessing rating of 10 Best Presidents by 846 historians shows remarkable consistency between Liberal and Conservative scholars, with 9 of 10 appearing on both sides – Lincoln, F. D. Roosevelt, Washington, Jefferson, T. Roosevelt, Wilson, Jackson, Truman, John Adams – the single inconsistency being L. B. Johnson on the Left and Eisenhower on the Right. Subsequent lists have more differences, with Reagan added in nearly all cases. As for more up-to-date readings of G. W. Bush, a 2006 Siena poll of 744 scholars asking for a rating after 5 years of Presidency, he gets a 2% Good, 5% Nearly Good, 11% Average, 24% Below Average and 58% Failure score. A 2008 History News Network poll of self selected scholars gave him a 98% Failure and a 61% Worst in History rating.
Murray-Blessing also has the Seven Worst Presidents, with six names appearing consistently for both Liberals and Conservatives – Pierce, Andrew Johnson, Buchanan, Grant, Nixon and Harding at the bottom, with Coolidge and Carter the alternates on the left and right. Nixon is a changeling, in four of eight scholarly ratings he escapes the Seven Worst rank, with Liberals for his environmentalist record, with Conservatives as a foreign policy doer.
Wally Dobelis thanks SRI and Prof. Alan Chartock
# posted by Wally Dobelis @ 3:21 PM 
