Thursday, January 08, 2009
Israelis expect a rapid settlement of war, per Dr. Paranoia
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
Dr. Paranoia writes:
The whole Gaza affair, Israel’s defense against the rocket attacks by Hamas from the Gaza Strip (since the 2005 turnover, with a minimal reduction during the six-months’ cease fire) has the friends of Israel highly worried.
But Israel is not without resources, and has hopes for forcing a settlement, states an Israeli correspondent reporting on attitudes in Jerusalem, on the day of Israel’s incursion in Gaza. Israel was not sanguine about the six-month cease-fire negotiated by Egypt that Hamas lapsed just days ago, with barrages of rockets. Israel expected that Hamas would use the six months to build tunnels and underground bunkers, in preparation of a provocation that would force Israel to start air attacks, to protect about one million Israelites from the rockets coming from bunkers hidden among Gaza’s general population. The objective of the provocation appears to be to portray Israel as genocidal, and force the world’s opinion to act, perhaps to attack Israel. It must be remembered that Hamas’ prime objective is to push Israel out of existence.
The Israeli hope was that Egypt and Jordan, countries that fully recognize the dangers to their own regimes emanating from Hamas, an ally of the Muslims Brotherhood (forbidden in Egypt), might intervene and slow down the terrorists, who depend on “secret tunnels” along Gaza’s border with Egypt for their supplies. Apparently fearful of anger from their own people about the deaths of civilians from the Israeli air attacks, President Hosni Mubarak and King Abdullah II are not forthcoming.
The feisty Palestinians have always been a danger to the Arab League dictatorships, along with their parent/ally, Muslim Brotherhood. President Anwar Sadat, who signed the peace treaty with Israel in 1979 and turned Gaza over to Israel, a nice peaceful act, (he also did it also to benefit his regime, by keeping the Palestinians out of his country), was assassinated by the Brotherhood. The founder and ideological head of the Brotherhood, Syyid Qutb, an inspiration to Osama bin Ladin, was killed by Sadat’s predecessors, the Nasser government, in 1966. Parenthetically, the puritanical Qutb, who never married and who did graduate work in Colorado in 1948-1950, started the movement when he became revolted by the materialism of American culture, the sexuality of American women (Vogue magazine ads and such?), and the sweaty excitement of American jazz.
Also, King Hussein of Jordan, (who had Black September massacres of the Palestinian refugees about to overthrow his government in 1970, and expelled the PLO), secretly agreed to turn the West Bank (occupied by Israel in the 1967 war) to Golda Maier, and in 1988 renounced all rights to the troublesome area. In Syria, the secularist Baathists under Bashir al Assad in 1982 led a bloody suppression of a Brotherhood uprising, and may be a bit ambivalent today about Hamas. Richard Armitage, Colin Powell’s assistant secretary of state, long ago suggested negotiations with Syria as an entry point to peace.
The Brotherhood is somewhat quiescent in Algeria; they are strong in Sudan and Somalia, and lead a moderate existence in the other Mahgreb (North Africa) and Arab League countries. In Saudiland their interpretation of Sharia law clashes with the Wahaabis, not enough for warfare, and in Israel they are split and only the southern half votes in the Knesset elections. The Hamas people, sprouting in all Muslim countries and gaining strength from the deaths of Gaza people, are a different matter.
Israel can continue its defense of bombing, and continue voicing the claims that it pinpoints its attacks to Hamas militants, and makes phone calls to targeted houses, announcing the attack and urging evacuation. Then, when kids are sent to the roof of the house to keep the pilots away – what a way to set up atrocities ( Hamas’ best weapons for the world opinion are dead Israeli soldiers, and, second best, dead Arab kids) – the pilots mock-shoot a free corner of the roof to chase the kids away.
Israel’s best expectations are to continue bombing, do cautious invading and destroying munitions dumps, and keep hoping that the UN, EU, NATO and such can co-opt a security force, say under the leadership of Egypt, to come into Gaza and stop the fighting. Israel can claim respondent status, and answer the accusations of using overwhelming force by its position, as a small country amidst many larger opponents. Security force actions cannot be taken unilaterally, they must be with the agreement of the host country. If Hamas disagrees with the outside security force use, it loses points in the world opinion as the defender of the people exposed to bombing. This may be the direction the war should take.
The only fly in the ointment may be Syria/Lebanon, where the Hesbollah Shiites have large forces. The 2006 incursion of Israel was not successful, and the Shiites may not use that route, and may be starting rocket attacks. Can they risk being bombed out of existence again? Think Armitage.
State Department to copy.
Dr. Paranoia writes:
The whole Gaza affair, Israel’s defense against the rocket attacks by Hamas from the Gaza Strip (since the 2005 turnover, with a minimal reduction during the six-months’ cease fire) has the friends of Israel highly worried.
But Israel is not without resources, and has hopes for forcing a settlement, states an Israeli correspondent reporting on attitudes in Jerusalem, on the day of Israel’s incursion in Gaza. Israel was not sanguine about the six-month cease-fire negotiated by Egypt that Hamas lapsed just days ago, with barrages of rockets. Israel expected that Hamas would use the six months to build tunnels and underground bunkers, in preparation of a provocation that would force Israel to start air attacks, to protect about one million Israelites from the rockets coming from bunkers hidden among Gaza’s general population. The objective of the provocation appears to be to portray Israel as genocidal, and force the world’s opinion to act, perhaps to attack Israel. It must be remembered that Hamas’ prime objective is to push Israel out of existence.
The Israeli hope was that Egypt and Jordan, countries that fully recognize the dangers to their own regimes emanating from Hamas, an ally of the Muslims Brotherhood (forbidden in Egypt), might intervene and slow down the terrorists, who depend on “secret tunnels” along Gaza’s border with Egypt for their supplies. Apparently fearful of anger from their own people about the deaths of civilians from the Israeli air attacks, President Hosni Mubarak and King Abdullah II are not forthcoming.
The feisty Palestinians have always been a danger to the Arab League dictatorships, along with their parent/ally, Muslim Brotherhood. President Anwar Sadat, who signed the peace treaty with Israel in 1979 and turned Gaza over to Israel, a nice peaceful act, (he also did it also to benefit his regime, by keeping the Palestinians out of his country), was assassinated by the Brotherhood. The founder and ideological head of the Brotherhood, Syyid Qutb, an inspiration to Osama bin Ladin, was killed by Sadat’s predecessors, the Nasser government, in 1966. Parenthetically, the puritanical Qutb, who never married and who did graduate work in Colorado in 1948-1950, started the movement when he became revolted by the materialism of American culture, the sexuality of American women (Vogue magazine ads and such?), and the sweaty excitement of American jazz.
Also, King Hussein of Jordan, (who had Black September massacres of the Palestinian refugees about to overthrow his government in 1970, and expelled the PLO), secretly agreed to turn the West Bank (occupied by Israel in the 1967 war) to Golda Maier, and in 1988 renounced all rights to the troublesome area. In Syria, the secularist Baathists under Bashir al Assad in 1982 led a bloody suppression of a Brotherhood uprising, and may be a bit ambivalent today about Hamas. Richard Armitage, Colin Powell’s assistant secretary of state, long ago suggested negotiations with Syria as an entry point to peace.
The Brotherhood is somewhat quiescent in Algeria; they are strong in Sudan and Somalia, and lead a moderate existence in the other Mahgreb (North Africa) and Arab League countries. In Saudiland their interpretation of Sharia law clashes with the Wahaabis, not enough for warfare, and in Israel they are split and only the southern half votes in the Knesset elections. The Hamas people, sprouting in all Muslim countries and gaining strength from the deaths of Gaza people, are a different matter.
Israel can continue its defense of bombing, and continue voicing the claims that it pinpoints its attacks to Hamas militants, and makes phone calls to targeted houses, announcing the attack and urging evacuation. Then, when kids are sent to the roof of the house to keep the pilots away – what a way to set up atrocities ( Hamas’ best weapons for the world opinion are dead Israeli soldiers, and, second best, dead Arab kids) – the pilots mock-shoot a free corner of the roof to chase the kids away.
Israel’s best expectations are to continue bombing, do cautious invading and destroying munitions dumps, and keep hoping that the UN, EU, NATO and such can co-opt a security force, say under the leadership of Egypt, to come into Gaza and stop the fighting. Israel can claim respondent status, and answer the accusations of using overwhelming force by its position, as a small country amidst many larger opponents. Security force actions cannot be taken unilaterally, they must be with the agreement of the host country. If Hamas disagrees with the outside security force use, it loses points in the world opinion as the defender of the people exposed to bombing. This may be the direction the war should take.
The only fly in the ointment may be Syria/Lebanon, where the Hesbollah Shiites have large forces. The 2006 incursion of Israel was not successful, and the Shiites may not use that route, and may be starting rocket attacks. Can they risk being bombed out of existence again? Think Armitage.
State Department to copy.
Labels: Dr. Paranoia
# posted by Wally Dobelis @ 12:16 PM 
