Looking Ahead

LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis Obama - Looking ahead, Nobel Committee made the best choice I have this theory that President Barak Obama presents the world’s best hope for peace. It goes back to January 24, 2008 when this column predicted that a dream team of Obama and Bill Richardson could pull the world out of mutual hatred, Obama as the front man, because he has the right ideas and the looks to engage the third-worlders, and Richardson because he can negotiate, particularly in Latin America. Now my belief has been validated by the Nobel committee, amid cries of disbelief claiming lack of accomplishment. Let's examine. Obama has spoken all over the world, establishing his sincerity and credibility, and a new direction for the US. He has proven his peaceful intentions towards Russia by canceling the rocket defenses against Iran to be built in Poland and the Czech Republic that the Russian Federation considered threatening, and has gained some Russian support in talks with Iran about not developing nuclear bomb facilities. His talks with Iran should be eased by acknowledging that country's original 2001 support in restoring a peaceful Afghanistan with a $500,000 contribution, which was spat upon when Bush in January 2002 declared Iran, Iraq and North Korea the axis of evil. Iran has its own problems. The Taliban Sunni fanatics are Iran’s enemies. Also, the Saudis and their 21 fellow Arab League members do not accept the Shia Farsi Iranians even as observers, and in the 1980-Iran-Iraq war the League backed Iraq. Internally, the sophisticated Iranian cityites, well westernized by former Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlevi before the 1979 fundamentalist revolution, are creating internal protest by struggling against the heavy- handed leadership of Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Muhadinejad. The Iranians’ push for nuclear power and the threat of atomic weaponry is as much against the masses of Sunnis surrounding them as against Israel. Assuming they are not suicidal on a global scale, it is obvious that they understand that as a nuclear power they will create a total unbalance, and prompt all surrounding countries to weaponize. Sincere peaceful overtures on part of President Obama and promises of peace with the Arab League Sunni powers, e.g. Egypt and Jordan, as well as Saudi Arabia, all beholden to us, might be precisely the restorative for a compromise. It would placate Syria, long known to be looking for a solution, help Pakistan in subduing the Talibanis, bring Mullah Omar to some negotiations, and, just possibly, neutralize Osama bin Laden .This leaves the forever struggle of Israel and the Palestinians unresolved. I brought this idealistic scenario to the attention of an Israeli friend, in New York for a conference, after he downgraded the Nobel price award to Obama as unearned. He feels that bombing the Iranian nuclear works by Israel is unavoidable. Until the 2nd Intifada in 2002 I had known this friend, then an Israeli official, as a peace advocate, Labor and Meretz Party supporter and reader of the Haaretz newspaper. Now he sees the situation as unsolvable, with religious radicalism in Gaza and the Green Zone expanding, as a popular trend rather than a product of Hamas propaganda. Young women are voluntarily dressing in burkas or heavy hijabs, showing only their eyes. The concern is that of some seven million Israelis, one and a half million are Palestinians, with a birth rate that can overwhelm the democratic Jewish state in 5 years. Another million are in Gaza, and two million in the Green Zone. While the al Fatah / PLO Palestinians are willing to negotiate with the Israelis, all Palestinian parties demand the right of return and sharing Jerusalem as part of any settlement. In the Oslo Accord of 1993, giving the Palestinians self-rule, and in the Roadmap of 2003, Israel traded land for peace (Gaza in 2005), to no avail. After the death of Yasir Arafat in 2004, his PLO, under his successor Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen) was overwhelmed and outvoted in the Palestinian parliament by the uncompromising Hamas, and wars ensued, in Lebanon and Gaza. Our visitor strongly suggests that giving land (e.g. West Bank settlements) will not work. What stops suicide bombers and terrorists is the six-story wall separating Arab lands from Israel in the West Bank. Would an Obama peace plan, softening Iran and the Arab League (they founded el Fatah in 1950s), with the aid of Egypt and Jordan (who ceded Gaza and the Green Zone 40-odd years ago because they want no warlike Palestinian groups acting out on their borders) produce a settlement? No sir, nohow, not now, but…? Anyhow, this column (and the Nobel committee) support Obama because that is the only choice for survival of the planet. Wally Dobelis and the staff of T&V offer their belated best wishes for a happy New Year, Yom Kippur, Succoth, Simchat Torah and Eid ul Fitr to our readers, and a good recovery to our publisher, Chris Hagedorn.