Friday, May 28, 2010
How the Federal Reserve actions impact the economy
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
Is the recession/depression recovering, or turning into an inflation, or deflation, or stagflation? Are the bailouts and stimulus effective? Has the stock market recovered? As to the latter, Michael M. Thomas in The Observer has found that the stocks rise led by banks claiming modest 1st quarter gains was fueled by Goldman, JPMorgan, Citicorp and such, stuffing risk free funds (now under by FDIC expanded coverage) and bailout money into treasury notes and bonds, sold by the US Treasury to provide bailout, sort of circular action (why didn’t the Fed give the funds directly to the Treasury Department? Why pay the interest to banks? Actually, it is part of the Fed’s tricky way of strengthening the economy.)
As to inflation etc, in a NYTimes early May issue, two op-ed articles on the same page contradicted each other. Allan H. Meltzer, who teaches economics at Carnegie Mellon, a historian of Federal Reserve, claims that the Fed always does too little or too much. In the 1970s when real estate bombed an the OPEC blackmailed us into huge oil prices, Chairman Volcker stopped the Carter age money presses and tightened interest, with double-digit inflation and 10% unemployment in 1981, then inflation naturally dropping to 4% and full employment arriving by 1983. He sees stimulus supporting social actions – health, roads, bridges, infrastructure, state budgets – not adding much to productivity, while green environment- clean energy, cap and trade for carbon exchange – add taxes and costs. Productive investment is slowed, as is industry’s growth rate, while inflation rises. The 1st quarter gross domestic product deflator rose 2.9% a sure sign of inflation. He states that, for eventual recovery the Fed must regain its independence. Inflation is coming, and the Fed cannot neglect it.
The NYTimes own Nobelist, Princeton’s Paul Krugman, sees deflation as the big danger. The paradox of thrift, or saving as a virtue, is lowering demand. Reducing your debt and cleaning up the balance sheet is creating a financial crisis. Lowering prices does not work if everyone is doing it, and cutting wages to accomplish this is putting less money into the economy. The example is Japan, where an annual wage decrease of 1% from 1997 to 2003 was an object lesson in how wage deflation can result in economic stagnation. Krugman sees the vicious circle still growing, although some indicators are showing that the plunge is leveling off... While the National Bureau of Economic Research may declare later this year that the recession is over, the jobs plunge is continuing. To break out of the vicious circle, he sees the need for more – more stimulus, more decisive action on the banks, more job creation. He finds that President Obama and his advisors have steered the economy away from the abyss, but there’s the risk that the US will become another Japan, with years of deflation and stagnation.
Nearly two weeks later Princeton’s Allan Blinder, and a former vice chairman of Federal Reserve, reminded us of the errors of the Fed earlier, during the Great Depression. Herbert Hoover’s laissez-faire Fed ignored the depression, until the FDR Fed managed a spectacular GDP climb, 11% per year in 1933-36, until the large volume of excess reserves created scared them into fears of inflation, and in 1937 they tightened the reserves, President Roosevelt tried to reduce the federal budget deficits, going from a deficit of 3.8% of GDP in 1936 to a surplus of 0.2% in 1937. The consequences were tragic, and the so-called recession within a depression by 1938 dropped the GDP by 3.4%, ending in mid 1938 with even larger losses. Changing courses can be very dangerous. As of now, the Fed reserves are up to $775B, worrying the critics into fears of inflation, just like what goaded the Fed into action in 1936. Fortunately Chairman Bernanke is a close student of the Great Depression, and will not allow the Fed repeat the errors. The budget hawks are showing their talons, but they should not be allowed to have their day, not just yet. President Obama must stay the course, and not be influenced into addressing the Federal budget deficits until the results of stimulus are palpable.
What does all this mean to us, the ordinary citizens who will pay for all of the expenses through taxes? It seems the spenders have strong evidence that President Obama must stay the course to rescue the economy. He says that, for instance, green industry will create five million jobs in 10 years. Some outside facts may help. It seems Germany wants to make its green sector grow, by 2020 surpassing its Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen-led auto industry. They have already created 250,000 green jobs in five years, including 50,000 in the wind power industry. The new technology generates exports, and already creates $240B in annual revenues.
One of the US bailout/stimulus results is that the mortgage rescue plan has finally taken off the ground. While Moody’s estimates that 2.1M homeowners will be foreclosed in 2009, administration is confident that 3-4M will be helped by the program, Let us move on.
Is the recession/depression recovering, or turning into an inflation, or deflation, or stagflation? Are the bailouts and stimulus effective? Has the stock market recovered? As to the latter, Michael M. Thomas in The Observer has found that the stocks rise led by banks claiming modest 1st quarter gains was fueled by Goldman, JPMorgan, Citicorp and such, stuffing risk free funds (now under by FDIC expanded coverage) and bailout money into treasury notes and bonds, sold by the US Treasury to provide bailout, sort of circular action (why didn’t the Fed give the funds directly to the Treasury Department? Why pay the interest to banks? Actually, it is part of the Fed’s tricky way of strengthening the economy.)
As to inflation etc, in a NYTimes early May issue, two op-ed articles on the same page contradicted each other. Allan H. Meltzer, who teaches economics at Carnegie Mellon, a historian of Federal Reserve, claims that the Fed always does too little or too much. In the 1970s when real estate bombed an the OPEC blackmailed us into huge oil prices, Chairman Volcker stopped the Carter age money presses and tightened interest, with double-digit inflation and 10% unemployment in 1981, then inflation naturally dropping to 4% and full employment arriving by 1983. He sees stimulus supporting social actions – health, roads, bridges, infrastructure, state budgets – not adding much to productivity, while green environment- clean energy, cap and trade for carbon exchange – add taxes and costs. Productive investment is slowed, as is industry’s growth rate, while inflation rises. The 1st quarter gross domestic product deflator rose 2.9% a sure sign of inflation. He states that, for eventual recovery the Fed must regain its independence. Inflation is coming, and the Fed cannot neglect it.
The NYTimes own Nobelist, Princeton’s Paul Krugman, sees deflation as the big danger. The paradox of thrift, or saving as a virtue, is lowering demand. Reducing your debt and cleaning up the balance sheet is creating a financial crisis. Lowering prices does not work if everyone is doing it, and cutting wages to accomplish this is putting less money into the economy. The example is Japan, where an annual wage decrease of 1% from 1997 to 2003 was an object lesson in how wage deflation can result in economic stagnation. Krugman sees the vicious circle still growing, although some indicators are showing that the plunge is leveling off... While the National Bureau of Economic Research may declare later this year that the recession is over, the jobs plunge is continuing. To break out of the vicious circle, he sees the need for more – more stimulus, more decisive action on the banks, more job creation. He finds that President Obama and his advisors have steered the economy away from the abyss, but there’s the risk that the US will become another Japan, with years of deflation and stagnation.
Nearly two weeks later Princeton’s Allan Blinder, and a former vice chairman of Federal Reserve, reminded us of the errors of the Fed earlier, during the Great Depression. Herbert Hoover’s laissez-faire Fed ignored the depression, until the FDR Fed managed a spectacular GDP climb, 11% per year in 1933-36, until the large volume of excess reserves created scared them into fears of inflation, and in 1937 they tightened the reserves, President Roosevelt tried to reduce the federal budget deficits, going from a deficit of 3.8% of GDP in 1936 to a surplus of 0.2% in 1937. The consequences were tragic, and the so-called recession within a depression by 1938 dropped the GDP by 3.4%, ending in mid 1938 with even larger losses. Changing courses can be very dangerous. As of now, the Fed reserves are up to $775B, worrying the critics into fears of inflation, just like what goaded the Fed into action in 1936. Fortunately Chairman Bernanke is a close student of the Great Depression, and will not allow the Fed repeat the errors. The budget hawks are showing their talons, but they should not be allowed to have their day, not just yet. President Obama must stay the course, and not be influenced into addressing the Federal budget deficits until the results of stimulus are palpable.
What does all this mean to us, the ordinary citizens who will pay for all of the expenses through taxes? It seems the spenders have strong evidence that President Obama must stay the course to rescue the economy. He says that, for instance, green industry will create five million jobs in 10 years. Some outside facts may help. It seems Germany wants to make its green sector grow, by 2020 surpassing its Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen-led auto industry. They have already created 250,000 green jobs in five years, including 50,000 in the wind power industry. The new technology generates exports, and already creates $240B in annual revenues.
One of the US bailout/stimulus results is that the mortgage rescue plan has finally taken off the ground. While Moody’s estimates that 2.1M homeowners will be foreclosed in 2009, administration is confident that 3-4M will be helped by the program, Let us move on.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Cure oil disaster fast; need jobs
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
US needs jobs to bring us back to reason
Top of the list for the moment (jobs is first), President Barack Obama has to take action on the oil disaster. We should know what Washington is doing, besides forming committees, now that BP has siphoned some oil and “thinks” it can slow the outflow with drilling mud. Why is there no help from the organization of the late Red Adair, oil disaster master? Further, what about the USSR method of exploding small nuclear bombs in shafts dug way down next to the leaks, used between 1966 and 1981 to crush five oil and gas leak lines? Forgetting the nukes, how about using superpowerful conventional explosives? Is this geologically or politically incorrect? We should know.
Now, Tea Party. Cityites may not realize how deep the recession has hit upstate NY. Late in January, in Copake, 100 miles north of Herald Square, a farmer shot his 51 milk cows dead, and then killed himself. Neighbors quietly opined that milk prices were low and fodder expensive. Early in May, another nearby farmer’s neighbors found eleven dead calves and cows on his family property, dead of malnutrition. The local weekly, Columbia Paper, quietly opined that malnutrition due to slow arrival of grass this cold spring was at fault, and the poor farm family, being guilty of growing old, of pride and unwillingness to beg for neighbors’ help, should not have been jailed. NYS government should have helped, not put them in prison.
On the opposite page of the paper, in a Letter, another neighbor, proud to be well educated, a businessman and a Tea Party member, declared that the taxes our working class citizens have been paying to the overreaching government have been wasted by the fools in Albany and Washington. Now his party people have found a way to stop Socialism. Current administration’s policies have weakened America and will bankrupt the country. We do not want, nor do we need, to have government to take care of us, we all able-bodied people should do that ourselves. Trumped up crises and class warfare feelings are led by an inexperienced pseudo-intellectual community organizer who is degrading our country and apologizing for it. We do not care for the color of his skin, but we care about his politics. The budget deficit has risen three and four-fold, but stopping the spending of money may save us. .We can create jobs fast, by letting businessmen keep the money and reinvest it in jobs. We bailed out banks and car companies but ignored the small businessman. Immigration? Just deport the illegals. Socialism here? Yes, government-run health system is socialist, and will destroy the US healthcare, the best system in the world. Is Tea Party guilty of hate talk? The author thinks dissent is the highest form of patriotism, and concludes by urging readers to listen to Rush, Hannity and Beck and watch Heritage Foundation and read the Constitution.
This condensation and oversimplification does not give justice to the serious and thought-out phrases of the protester’s letter. Apart from not mentioning that global warming is a hoax, this essay is not far from what many of our working class tax-paying upstate town and country cousins cite conversationally, when political issues come up. It is frustration, impotence and an anger at all those in office, who do not help restore jobs, and actually have to cut them, to balance state budgets. This “stop government spending” attitude persists, and will be a serious force in the next several elections, even in NYS, although people know, and another neighbor pointed out, in the next mid-May issue of Columbia Paper, the complainer’s public school education was provided by the government, as were the roads and the busses that he took to classes, the clean water, good meats and vegetables, secure air planes, defense against contagious diseases, personal and national safety, parks, public libraries and disaster assistance - all matters that the able-bodied people could not do by themselves.
Earnest, sincere Dr. Rand Paul’s winning of the Republican primary in Kentucky for the US Senate is proof, although, along with cutting taxes, balancing budgets and depending on charity instead of government services , he will also raise the Social Security eligibility age. The Tea Party is essentially split between the Austrian School small-government people (if you want a theoretical backup identified, look at Ayn Rand, Ludwig von Mises, even back to St. Thomas Aquinas, also neocons) and the seniors who want to retain FDR’s New Deal and LBJ’s Great Society Medicare benefits In Utah, Tea Party ousted conservative Sen. Robert Bennett because he supported the bank bailout. Rand Paul, as strategist Paul Begala discovers, would also like to abolish the Federal Reserve System and the federal Department of Education. Whether the latter ties in with his idea of opposing the line in Civil Rights Act of 1964 that requires restaurants and luncheonettes to permit anyone to be serviced, a privacy issue (he should ask SC justice Scalia about the constitutionality of privacy) .
This angry and irrational protest against all incumbents will persist. Jobs, jobs jobs –that is the way for Obama to respond to it; provide infrastructure jobs, that’s local, and work on energy, that’s national.
US needs jobs to bring us back to reason
Top of the list for the moment (jobs is first), President Barack Obama has to take action on the oil disaster. We should know what Washington is doing, besides forming committees, now that BP has siphoned some oil and “thinks” it can slow the outflow with drilling mud. Why is there no help from the organization of the late Red Adair, oil disaster master? Further, what about the USSR method of exploding small nuclear bombs in shafts dug way down next to the leaks, used between 1966 and 1981 to crush five oil and gas leak lines? Forgetting the nukes, how about using superpowerful conventional explosives? Is this geologically or politically incorrect? We should know.
Now, Tea Party. Cityites may not realize how deep the recession has hit upstate NY. Late in January, in Copake, 100 miles north of Herald Square, a farmer shot his 51 milk cows dead, and then killed himself. Neighbors quietly opined that milk prices were low and fodder expensive. Early in May, another nearby farmer’s neighbors found eleven dead calves and cows on his family property, dead of malnutrition. The local weekly, Columbia Paper, quietly opined that malnutrition due to slow arrival of grass this cold spring was at fault, and the poor farm family, being guilty of growing old, of pride and unwillingness to beg for neighbors’ help, should not have been jailed. NYS government should have helped, not put them in prison.
On the opposite page of the paper, in a Letter, another neighbor, proud to be well educated, a businessman and a Tea Party member, declared that the taxes our working class citizens have been paying to the overreaching government have been wasted by the fools in Albany and Washington. Now his party people have found a way to stop Socialism. Current administration’s policies have weakened America and will bankrupt the country. We do not want, nor do we need, to have government to take care of us, we all able-bodied people should do that ourselves. Trumped up crises and class warfare feelings are led by an inexperienced pseudo-intellectual community organizer who is degrading our country and apologizing for it. We do not care for the color of his skin, but we care about his politics. The budget deficit has risen three and four-fold, but stopping the spending of money may save us. .We can create jobs fast, by letting businessmen keep the money and reinvest it in jobs. We bailed out banks and car companies but ignored the small businessman. Immigration? Just deport the illegals. Socialism here? Yes, government-run health system is socialist, and will destroy the US healthcare, the best system in the world. Is Tea Party guilty of hate talk? The author thinks dissent is the highest form of patriotism, and concludes by urging readers to listen to Rush, Hannity and Beck and watch Heritage Foundation and read the Constitution.
This condensation and oversimplification does not give justice to the serious and thought-out phrases of the protester’s letter. Apart from not mentioning that global warming is a hoax, this essay is not far from what many of our working class tax-paying upstate town and country cousins cite conversationally, when political issues come up. It is frustration, impotence and an anger at all those in office, who do not help restore jobs, and actually have to cut them, to balance state budgets. This “stop government spending” attitude persists, and will be a serious force in the next several elections, even in NYS, although people know, and another neighbor pointed out, in the next mid-May issue of Columbia Paper, the complainer’s public school education was provided by the government, as were the roads and the busses that he took to classes, the clean water, good meats and vegetables, secure air planes, defense against contagious diseases, personal and national safety, parks, public libraries and disaster assistance - all matters that the able-bodied people could not do by themselves.
Earnest, sincere Dr. Rand Paul’s winning of the Republican primary in Kentucky for the US Senate is proof, although, along with cutting taxes, balancing budgets and depending on charity instead of government services , he will also raise the Social Security eligibility age. The Tea Party is essentially split between the Austrian School small-government people (if you want a theoretical backup identified, look at Ayn Rand, Ludwig von Mises, even back to St. Thomas Aquinas, also neocons) and the seniors who want to retain FDR’s New Deal and LBJ’s Great Society Medicare benefits In Utah, Tea Party ousted conservative Sen. Robert Bennett because he supported the bank bailout. Rand Paul, as strategist Paul Begala discovers, would also like to abolish the Federal Reserve System and the federal Department of Education. Whether the latter ties in with his idea of opposing the line in Civil Rights Act of 1964 that requires restaurants and luncheonettes to permit anyone to be serviced, a privacy issue (he should ask SC justice Scalia about the constitutionality of privacy) .
This angry and irrational protest against all incumbents will persist. Jobs, jobs jobs –that is the way for Obama to respond to it; provide infrastructure jobs, that’s local, and work on energy, that’s national.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
New Yorkers are bomb-conscious
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
On Thursday, May 13, around 10PM watchful New Yorkers noted two gasoline tanks on the back seat of a 1991 Oldsmobile Ciera parked by the Con Ed building on Irving Place near 14th Street . Bomb technicians broke the windows of the car to check for incendiaries while the police traced the owner who was at the British rock band Buzzcocks performance in the Fillmore East at Irving Plaza concert hall. The band stopped the concert to call for the owner of the car, who turned out to be a professional gardener from the suburbs. I can feel for the guy, having traveled with my lawn mover gas tank, in my ancient Ciera, two cars ago (today I put my red gas tank in the trunk). This was the fifth reported suspicious object, since the May1 failed bombing near Times Square.
On the good news side, this story confirms that New Yorkers take bomb threats seriously. A neighbor reports that she called 911 when she saw a large closed black suitcase standing on its end, on corner 17th Street and Irving Place on a Saturday morning, on her way to the Farmers’ Market, seemingly ignored by the passersby. She did not wait for the police, but on her way back the trunk was gone. With no word in the press, this was presumably not a serious incident, but we all must be aware of the threats.
The fact that tee-shirt sellers around town volunteer as the NYPD’s eyes and ears speaks well for the unofficial reporting system that we all participate in, and the quick action, identifying Faisal Shahzad, presumably helped by his one-time cell phone in buying the car, his forgetfulness in leading his house keys behind in the car, and the recordkeeping of the fireworks’ sellers in Pennsylvania, acts that led to his arrest in 52 hours. But we were also lucky and should not count on the next terrorist doing legitimate purchases and goofing up the explosion and leaving evidence at the site.
That raises a few questions, starting with the thought that suicide bombers can be expected to sabotage their own attacks. First there was Richard Reid in 2001, trying to set his shoelaces on fire in full view of the airplane passengers, meekly permitting to be subdued by volunteers and crew; next, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, held by passengers on the Detroit-bound plane on December 24, as his bombing attempt was discovered. This was a bad bungle by security, ignoring Umar‘s father’s warning to the authorities. Shahzad also submitted meekly, expressing surprise at the late arrest. All three of these bombers caught in action spoke freely of their intent, raising the question as to whether their bungles were intended as warnings, avoiding the public outcry and world-wide uproar that any major terror acts against the innocents would create. Is Al Quaeda trying to become a public protector, what with Obama bin Laden speaking out against global warming perpetrated by the capitalist West?
More importantly, the West has lost a lot of the Muslim world’s sympathy, gained after 9/11, as a result of civilian casualties incurred in Afghanistan, in pursuit of terrorists deliberately hiding among the populace. It really started in Iraq, with our 2004 invasion, which the Bush administration justified as purportedly neutralizing Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction. The world did accept our earlier action in Afghanistan right after 9/11/2001, in pursuit of Al Quaeda terrorists and their protectors, the Taliban; in fact, Iran pledged $500 million, in restructuring Afghan life, in the interests of bettering their Shia Persian country’s relationship with its Sunni neighbors. But the Bushites spurned the peace offer, almost immediately declaring Iran a member of the Axis of Evil, with Iraq and North Korea.
Subsequently, President Barack Obama, being a good American, pursued the terrorists further, including targeted bombings among Taliban supporters hiding in Pakistan. The collateral casualties are costing us supporters, and generating Jihadist enemies, some even here in the US. As to where the Muslims in US have stood, the religious Muslim structure has condemned terrorists and suicide bombers in principle, as contrary to the basic teachings of the Prophet. Yet, the feelings among some of the young American-born Pakistanis and Arabs have been influenced by world events, and family interaction with their relatives abroad cannot be denied. Consequently, the wars have given strength to the teachings of some US-born radicals, such as Anwal al-Awlaki now hiding in Yemen, preaching vengeance. He succeeded with Umar, Faisal and particularly with the mass killer at Fort hood, psychiatrist Nidal Malik Hasan.
All this is no news to President Barack Obama, whose actions against terrorists may be military successes, but whose peace restoration efforts suffer, as a consequence. Concurrently pushing for peace with sheiks and radical leaders while spot-bombing their troops worked in World War II, which was warred between governments, but here we are in a different environment. Our military leaders, while brilliant academicians and peace theorists who understand the three cups of tea approach, will have to change their tack. One direction must be to have the participants realize the inexorable deadliness of our weapons. This is no Rudyard Kipling or former USSR war, we are technologically unstoppable, and even Pushtuns must recognize our ability to identify and pinpoint our targets. The need of coming to peace before our air power inexorably destroys them one by one, must be sold to them and their families, with Chinese, Indian, Saudi and Arab League and particularly Pakistani cooperation... Obama needs this, but so do they, and so does the world.
Corrections: buiti is “good” in Garifuna, and samba is “lion” in Swahili. Thank you!
.
On Thursday, May 13, around 10PM watchful New Yorkers noted two gasoline tanks on the back seat of a 1991 Oldsmobile Ciera parked by the Con Ed building on Irving Place near 14th Street . Bomb technicians broke the windows of the car to check for incendiaries while the police traced the owner who was at the British rock band Buzzcocks performance in the Fillmore East at Irving Plaza concert hall. The band stopped the concert to call for the owner of the car, who turned out to be a professional gardener from the suburbs. I can feel for the guy, having traveled with my lawn mover gas tank, in my ancient Ciera, two cars ago (today I put my red gas tank in the trunk). This was the fifth reported suspicious object, since the May1 failed bombing near Times Square.
On the good news side, this story confirms that New Yorkers take bomb threats seriously. A neighbor reports that she called 911 when she saw a large closed black suitcase standing on its end, on corner 17th Street and Irving Place on a Saturday morning, on her way to the Farmers’ Market, seemingly ignored by the passersby. She did not wait for the police, but on her way back the trunk was gone. With no word in the press, this was presumably not a serious incident, but we all must be aware of the threats.
The fact that tee-shirt sellers around town volunteer as the NYPD’s eyes and ears speaks well for the unofficial reporting system that we all participate in, and the quick action, identifying Faisal Shahzad, presumably helped by his one-time cell phone in buying the car, his forgetfulness in leading his house keys behind in the car, and the recordkeeping of the fireworks’ sellers in Pennsylvania, acts that led to his arrest in 52 hours. But we were also lucky and should not count on the next terrorist doing legitimate purchases and goofing up the explosion and leaving evidence at the site.
That raises a few questions, starting with the thought that suicide bombers can be expected to sabotage their own attacks. First there was Richard Reid in 2001, trying to set his shoelaces on fire in full view of the airplane passengers, meekly permitting to be subdued by volunteers and crew; next, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, held by passengers on the Detroit-bound plane on December 24, as his bombing attempt was discovered. This was a bad bungle by security, ignoring Umar‘s father’s warning to the authorities. Shahzad also submitted meekly, expressing surprise at the late arrest. All three of these bombers caught in action spoke freely of their intent, raising the question as to whether their bungles were intended as warnings, avoiding the public outcry and world-wide uproar that any major terror acts against the innocents would create. Is Al Quaeda trying to become a public protector, what with Obama bin Laden speaking out against global warming perpetrated by the capitalist West?
More importantly, the West has lost a lot of the Muslim world’s sympathy, gained after 9/11, as a result of civilian casualties incurred in Afghanistan, in pursuit of terrorists deliberately hiding among the populace. It really started in Iraq, with our 2004 invasion, which the Bush administration justified as purportedly neutralizing Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction. The world did accept our earlier action in Afghanistan right after 9/11/2001, in pursuit of Al Quaeda terrorists and their protectors, the Taliban; in fact, Iran pledged $500 million, in restructuring Afghan life, in the interests of bettering their Shia Persian country’s relationship with its Sunni neighbors. But the Bushites spurned the peace offer, almost immediately declaring Iran a member of the Axis of Evil, with Iraq and North Korea.
Subsequently, President Barack Obama, being a good American, pursued the terrorists further, including targeted bombings among Taliban supporters hiding in Pakistan. The collateral casualties are costing us supporters, and generating Jihadist enemies, some even here in the US. As to where the Muslims in US have stood, the religious Muslim structure has condemned terrorists and suicide bombers in principle, as contrary to the basic teachings of the Prophet. Yet, the feelings among some of the young American-born Pakistanis and Arabs have been influenced by world events, and family interaction with their relatives abroad cannot be denied. Consequently, the wars have given strength to the teachings of some US-born radicals, such as Anwal al-Awlaki now hiding in Yemen, preaching vengeance. He succeeded with Umar, Faisal and particularly with the mass killer at Fort hood, psychiatrist Nidal Malik Hasan.
All this is no news to President Barack Obama, whose actions against terrorists may be military successes, but whose peace restoration efforts suffer, as a consequence. Concurrently pushing for peace with sheiks and radical leaders while spot-bombing their troops worked in World War II, which was warred between governments, but here we are in a different environment. Our military leaders, while brilliant academicians and peace theorists who understand the three cups of tea approach, will have to change their tack. One direction must be to have the participants realize the inexorable deadliness of our weapons. This is no Rudyard Kipling or former USSR war, we are technologically unstoppable, and even Pushtuns must recognize our ability to identify and pinpoint our targets. The need of coming to peace before our air power inexorably destroys them one by one, must be sold to them and their families, with Chinese, Indian, Saudi and Arab League and particularly Pakistani cooperation... Obama needs this, but so do they, and so does the world.
Corrections: buiti is “good” in Garifuna, and samba is “lion” in Swahili. Thank you!
.
Friday, May 14, 2010
How to be Governor David Paterson atand keep friends- Pt.3
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
David Paterson the accidental Governor had turned into a major problem solver for the ailing New York State. Now the public has turned against him, giving him a 19% approval rating. What happened?
A year ago he started like a house on fire, recognizing that his budget would be $16B short and asking for sacrifice from all of us, accepting limitations and spending cuts in government, hospital and school services, and higher taxes from higher income earners. He subscribed to an ambitious NYC transit rescue plan, with higher fares, tolls on bridges, employer taxes and access fees, important for the 8 million New Yorkers (of 18 million) who live in the city and pay most of the state’s taxes. He was also for gay marriage and an ambitious political campaign reform program. The November 2008 election gave Democrats 32 of the 62 state Senate seats, and his program had a great start.
But things happened. Three Democratic Senators wanting more control and, rebelling against gay marriage, threatened to sink Paterson’s choice for Senate leadership, Malcolm Smith, and had to be bought off. The municipal and hospital unions rebelled against service, (i.e. payroll} cuts and had to be satisfied. Westchester and Bronx drivers wanted no access fee, and Long Island legislators objected to East River bridge tolls, leading to a MTA rescue standstill. Taxpayers objected to increases and, consequently, turned against the Governor.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton resigned her Senate seat, and the Governor waited too long to appoint a successor, the upstate Congresswoman, Kirsten Gillibrand, an ambitious ex-Wall Street lawyer with deep Albany family roots, against Caroline Kennedy and several downstate legislators. Paterson was looking for upstate support from neglected voters, since the state house and Assembly, and now state Senate, have been led by New York cityites.
Senator Schumer’s support for Gillibrand is also in the interests of such a balance.
Meanwhile, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has been making great strides, Spitzer-like in investigating ties of state politicos, in selling access to investing the NYS $100B-plus pension fund. Two aides to the former NYS Comptroller Alan Hevesi, Hank Morris and David Loglisci, were indicted in March, and the private equity and hedge funds vying for fund management include the Carlyle Group and Riverstone Capital. Subpoenaed are also Ray B Harding, former leader of the Liberal party, and firms run by Peter Powers, one of Rudolph W.Giuliani’s deputy mayors, Susan Toricelli, wife of the former Senator of N\J, Kevin McCabe, former chief of staff to Peter Vallone, former NY City Council speaker, .and H. Carl McCall, former NYS Comptroller. Fernando Ferrer, former Bronx BP has been mentioned as representing Arvco Capital (ex-Calpers people), a contact brokerage firm, working in 2007 with the current NYS Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, to whose campaigns Ferrer and Arvco related names have contributed multi-$thousands. Arvco is mentioned in dealing with City Comptroller William C. Thompson‘s office, and Speaker Sheldon Silver is known to introduce a former Ranger goalie now brokering investment services (no deal, no fee). Several NYS legislators are in jail, of two dozen known to have been 21st century lawbreakers (mostly driving violations) and former Republican State Senate leader Joseph Russo has been indicted for accepting $2.3M consulting fees from recipients of NYS largesse.
While it is perfectly obvious that not all of the abovementioned political leaders, well distributed among three political parties, are not into scams, it is truly frightening to contemplate the full extension of the implications of these actions. Where does using the donor’s name – e.g. in Bill Clinton collecting funds for malaria and AIDS-struck Africans – cease to be laudable, vs. opportunistic vs. personal enrichment? Where do the Bill Clinton donors start crossing the line from being humanitarian benefactors to looking for approval and kind words and remembrance in history, to introduction seeking, then influence – peddling?
This is where the Spitzer/Paterson campaign funds reform legislation becomes a potentially significant step towards taking politics back to the ideals with which all young office-seekers initially begin. Campaign finance through public funds will not happen in this generation, though a British system of limited campaign period and funding could be considered. We are certainly living in a period of campaigns growing obscenely full-time. Reforms would bring howls of dismay from Michael Bloomberg, Jan Corzine, Frank Lautenberg and Mitch McConnell, but there’s got to be a limit.
Getting back to Governor David Paterson, his last shot at breaking the gridlock over keeping the Metropolitan Transit Authority going for the next two years has resulted in a patchwork compromise that kills new bridge tolls and access fees but results in a payroll tax and a taxi surcharge, with a minimal fare increase, a temporary solution that all the players were willing to sign. He is also trying to fix other taxpayer complaints and spending cuts with the aid of Washington’s stimulus money. It may well be that he is trying to fix the ails of New Yorkers by doing what is attainable, without constant reference to his popularity and reelection chances, in full sight of the Cuomo dreadnought advances. Not a winning styrategy, but we may remember him fondly.
David Paterson the accidental Governor had turned into a major problem solver for the ailing New York State. Now the public has turned against him, giving him a 19% approval rating. What happened?
A year ago he started like a house on fire, recognizing that his budget would be $16B short and asking for sacrifice from all of us, accepting limitations and spending cuts in government, hospital and school services, and higher taxes from higher income earners. He subscribed to an ambitious NYC transit rescue plan, with higher fares, tolls on bridges, employer taxes and access fees, important for the 8 million New Yorkers (of 18 million) who live in the city and pay most of the state’s taxes. He was also for gay marriage and an ambitious political campaign reform program. The November 2008 election gave Democrats 32 of the 62 state Senate seats, and his program had a great start.
But things happened. Three Democratic Senators wanting more control and, rebelling against gay marriage, threatened to sink Paterson’s choice for Senate leadership, Malcolm Smith, and had to be bought off. The municipal and hospital unions rebelled against service, (i.e. payroll} cuts and had to be satisfied. Westchester and Bronx drivers wanted no access fee, and Long Island legislators objected to East River bridge tolls, leading to a MTA rescue standstill. Taxpayers objected to increases and, consequently, turned against the Governor.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton resigned her Senate seat, and the Governor waited too long to appoint a successor, the upstate Congresswoman, Kirsten Gillibrand, an ambitious ex-Wall Street lawyer with deep Albany family roots, against Caroline Kennedy and several downstate legislators. Paterson was looking for upstate support from neglected voters, since the state house and Assembly, and now state Senate, have been led by New York cityites.
Senator Schumer’s support for Gillibrand is also in the interests of such a balance.
Meanwhile, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has been making great strides, Spitzer-like in investigating ties of state politicos, in selling access to investing the NYS $100B-plus pension fund. Two aides to the former NYS Comptroller Alan Hevesi, Hank Morris and David Loglisci, were indicted in March, and the private equity and hedge funds vying for fund management include the Carlyle Group and Riverstone Capital. Subpoenaed are also Ray B Harding, former leader of the Liberal party, and firms run by Peter Powers, one of Rudolph W.Giuliani’s deputy mayors, Susan Toricelli, wife of the former Senator of N\J, Kevin McCabe, former chief of staff to Peter Vallone, former NY City Council speaker, .and H. Carl McCall, former NYS Comptroller. Fernando Ferrer, former Bronx BP has been mentioned as representing Arvco Capital (ex-Calpers people), a contact brokerage firm, working in 2007 with the current NYS Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, to whose campaigns Ferrer and Arvco related names have contributed multi-$thousands. Arvco is mentioned in dealing with City Comptroller William C. Thompson‘s office, and Speaker Sheldon Silver is known to introduce a former Ranger goalie now brokering investment services (no deal, no fee). Several NYS legislators are in jail, of two dozen known to have been 21st century lawbreakers (mostly driving violations) and former Republican State Senate leader Joseph Russo has been indicted for accepting $2.3M consulting fees from recipients of NYS largesse.
While it is perfectly obvious that not all of the abovementioned political leaders, well distributed among three political parties, are not into scams, it is truly frightening to contemplate the full extension of the implications of these actions. Where does using the donor’s name – e.g. in Bill Clinton collecting funds for malaria and AIDS-struck Africans – cease to be laudable, vs. opportunistic vs. personal enrichment? Where do the Bill Clinton donors start crossing the line from being humanitarian benefactors to looking for approval and kind words and remembrance in history, to introduction seeking, then influence – peddling?
This is where the Spitzer/Paterson campaign funds reform legislation becomes a potentially significant step towards taking politics back to the ideals with which all young office-seekers initially begin. Campaign finance through public funds will not happen in this generation, though a British system of limited campaign period and funding could be considered. We are certainly living in a period of campaigns growing obscenely full-time. Reforms would bring howls of dismay from Michael Bloomberg, Jan Corzine, Frank Lautenberg and Mitch McConnell, but there’s got to be a limit.
Getting back to Governor David Paterson, his last shot at breaking the gridlock over keeping the Metropolitan Transit Authority going for the next two years has resulted in a patchwork compromise that kills new bridge tolls and access fees but results in a payroll tax and a taxi surcharge, with a minimal fare increase, a temporary solution that all the players were willing to sign. He is also trying to fix other taxpayer complaints and spending cuts with the aid of Washington’s stimulus money. It may well be that he is trying to fix the ails of New Yorkers by doing what is attainable, without constant reference to his popularity and reelection chances, in full sight of the Cuomo dreadnought advances. Not a winning styrategy, but we may remember him fondly.
