Friday, November 11, 2011
Some scary figures, but a happy ending is in sight
LOOKING AHEAD by Wally Dobelis
It is quite evident that the holiday season is getting nearer; the daily mail delivery grows. L. L. Bean sends new catalogs practically every day, and so does Neiman Marcus from Dallas. The latter used to be most fun, particularly their big Christmas Book, which always had an inane His and Her gift – not just twin Porsches, bur also pairs of sports airplanes, camels and hot air balloons. Now more modest, they are still selling hard, consequently strengthening our consumerism/antirecession/job boosting image, as is Vogue with its 758 page Fall Fashions issue. This column was prompted by the fact that the recession persists, and some coffee cup people are back on Third Avenue and on 14th Street, and some local retailers and restaurants close. But we have cures, read on.
Speaking of job boosting, earlier in 2011 Governor Andrew Cuomo reached a deal with the State’s largest union, the Civil Service Employees Union (CSEA), 66K members strong, to suspend pay increases, permit pay saving furloughs and increase member contributions. The second largest, Public Employees Federation (PEA), 55K members, voted against the terms, forcing the Governor to prepare for 3,500 layoffs. Now PEA has revoted, accepting less stringent terms, and saving the jobs.
To consider the NYS budget deficit that Cuomo is trying to balance, please note that with 19.5 million inhabitants the state has 717,000 unemployed and 3.17M food stamp recipients. Our GDP is $1.138 Trillion, with a debt of $282 Billion, a 25% ratio (Cuomo needed to make up $450M from the unions.) Per capita income is at nearly 47,000 and it comes from an employment distribution of 20% in education and health, 18% in government service. 17% trade, 12% professional and service. Manufacturing, agriculture, finance, leisure and hospitality re between 10 and 5 %, and our products are pharmaceuticals, chemicals, auto parts, electronics, and, in agriculture, vegetables and apples, a far cry from our rich Erie Canal days. Without Wall Street’s 25% share in the GDP, we sink altogether, and Occupy Wall Street cannot afford to eject the plutocrats, for the sake of the state, as well as that of the nation and of the entire world.
Those are strong words, so look at my numbers carefully. These people who tinker with the direction and survival of the universe, whether the government haters in the Tea Party disguise or the profiteer haters in Occupy Wall Street name, should go easy and know that, proportionately viewed, economically the US of America is more broke than the sad and corrupt country of the Greeks.
Greece, with a population of 11.2 Million, progeny of philosophers, inventors of alphabet, conquerors and opportunists, has abused the Euro, the welfare state and their loose tax system to the point of owing a state debt of $329 B, $28 ,000 per inhabitant, or 145% of their GDP. It may come to you as a shock to discover, that every American, native or immigrant, legal or illegal, owes $49,000 of the federal debt of over $15 Trillion, nearly twice as much as each citizen of Greece.
How come? Well, the US GDP is nearly $15 Trillion, as is the debt, and federal, state, and local spending is $6.9 T, with large item budgeting at $823 B for Medicare/Medicaid, $722 B for Social Security, $700 B for defense/wars, $217 for net interest on debt, $407 for income security and $212B for federal pensions, and the revenue at $4.63 T covers only about two two thirds.
To explain, the federal tax revenue is $2.3 T ($1,067 T in income tax, $823 B payroll tax, $191 B corporate tax) and the state tax revenue is at $1.18 T, vs. debt of $1.2 T, and local tax revenue/debt balance at $1.15 T/ $1.7 T.
Now, look at our population. USA has 312 million inhabitants, 13.9 M officially and 24 M unofficially unemployed. The work force is 140 M strong. By category, 15.7 M are state and local government employees, 4.3 M federal employees. Further, 66 M are retirees (remember SS was built in 1930s when median life expectancy hovered around 65 years) and 46 M are on food stamps.
As to funds, Federal Reserve monetary base is at $2.5 T, M2 money supply at $9.5 T, Treasury securities at $1.4T and that horrid figure, currency and credit derivatives, gifted to us by bank and real estate greed, at $616 Trillion!!!!
Our debt held by foreign countries is $4.8 T, our trade deficit is $725 B (336 B to China) oil imports $432 B (to OPEC 172 B).
At this point you may well ask, how come is it that only Greece is the invalid, when the US is in debt even more? Note that EU and IMF had offered Greece a $189 B bailout subject to accepting deep austerity, but PM George Papandreou, covering his back, called for a referendum, now conditionally cancelled, to the world’s relief. Although the US is also broke, the world trusts us because we maintain the only stable base currency. Creditors give US, the world’s largest economy ( our GDP tops the sum of those of China , India and Russia) more leeway, while Greece has lost its credit . Our creditors such as China and Japan must protect US, their chief marketplace, else their own economies will collapse. Meanwhile, the US must remain constant and show signs of working towards recovery, real positives . We must counter the types of anarchism that the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street people put forth, e. g. the Oakland general strike. We have better resources than those of destroying the US political system. As to cures. the SS, Med, defense and retirement mandates have to budge (more later), new products (e.g. energy storage) , and progressive taxation has to ensue. We should not panic, US can handle it (much more positive details to come.)
Wally Dobelis thanks Infobase Learning, the Debt Clock, internet sources and the people. Annual amounts come from varied resources, are rounded, and dates range from current to approximately 2009.
It is quite evident that the holiday season is getting nearer; the daily mail delivery grows. L. L. Bean sends new catalogs practically every day, and so does Neiman Marcus from Dallas. The latter used to be most fun, particularly their big Christmas Book, which always had an inane His and Her gift – not just twin Porsches, bur also pairs of sports airplanes, camels and hot air balloons. Now more modest, they are still selling hard, consequently strengthening our consumerism/antirecession/job boosting image, as is Vogue with its 758 page Fall Fashions issue. This column was prompted by the fact that the recession persists, and some coffee cup people are back on Third Avenue and on 14th Street, and some local retailers and restaurants close. But we have cures, read on.
Speaking of job boosting, earlier in 2011 Governor Andrew Cuomo reached a deal with the State’s largest union, the Civil Service Employees Union (CSEA), 66K members strong, to suspend pay increases, permit pay saving furloughs and increase member contributions. The second largest, Public Employees Federation (PEA), 55K members, voted against the terms, forcing the Governor to prepare for 3,500 layoffs. Now PEA has revoted, accepting less stringent terms, and saving the jobs.
To consider the NYS budget deficit that Cuomo is trying to balance, please note that with 19.5 million inhabitants the state has 717,000 unemployed and 3.17M food stamp recipients. Our GDP is $1.138 Trillion, with a debt of $282 Billion, a 25% ratio (Cuomo needed to make up $450M from the unions.) Per capita income is at nearly 47,000 and it comes from an employment distribution of 20% in education and health, 18% in government service. 17% trade, 12% professional and service. Manufacturing, agriculture, finance, leisure and hospitality re between 10 and 5 %, and our products are pharmaceuticals, chemicals, auto parts, electronics, and, in agriculture, vegetables and apples, a far cry from our rich Erie Canal days. Without Wall Street’s 25% share in the GDP, we sink altogether, and Occupy Wall Street cannot afford to eject the plutocrats, for the sake of the state, as well as that of the nation and of the entire world.
Those are strong words, so look at my numbers carefully. These people who tinker with the direction and survival of the universe, whether the government haters in the Tea Party disguise or the profiteer haters in Occupy Wall Street name, should go easy and know that, proportionately viewed, economically the US of America is more broke than the sad and corrupt country of the Greeks.
Greece, with a population of 11.2 Million, progeny of philosophers, inventors of alphabet, conquerors and opportunists, has abused the Euro, the welfare state and their loose tax system to the point of owing a state debt of $329 B, $28 ,000 per inhabitant, or 145% of their GDP. It may come to you as a shock to discover, that every American, native or immigrant, legal or illegal, owes $49,000 of the federal debt of over $15 Trillion, nearly twice as much as each citizen of Greece.
How come? Well, the US GDP is nearly $15 Trillion, as is the debt, and federal, state, and local spending is $6.9 T, with large item budgeting at $823 B for Medicare/Medicaid, $722 B for Social Security, $700 B for defense/wars, $217 for net interest on debt, $407 for income security and $212B for federal pensions, and the revenue at $4.63 T covers only about two two thirds.
To explain, the federal tax revenue is $2.3 T ($1,067 T in income tax, $823 B payroll tax, $191 B corporate tax) and the state tax revenue is at $1.18 T, vs. debt of $1.2 T, and local tax revenue/debt balance at $1.15 T/ $1.7 T.
Now, look at our population. USA has 312 million inhabitants, 13.9 M officially and 24 M unofficially unemployed. The work force is 140 M strong. By category, 15.7 M are state and local government employees, 4.3 M federal employees. Further, 66 M are retirees (remember SS was built in 1930s when median life expectancy hovered around 65 years) and 46 M are on food stamps.
As to funds, Federal Reserve monetary base is at $2.5 T, M2 money supply at $9.5 T, Treasury securities at $1.4T and that horrid figure, currency and credit derivatives, gifted to us by bank and real estate greed, at $616 Trillion!!!!
Our debt held by foreign countries is $4.8 T, our trade deficit is $725 B (336 B to China) oil imports $432 B (to OPEC 172 B).
At this point you may well ask, how come is it that only Greece is the invalid, when the US is in debt even more? Note that EU and IMF had offered Greece a $189 B bailout subject to accepting deep austerity, but PM George Papandreou, covering his back, called for a referendum, now conditionally cancelled, to the world’s relief. Although the US is also broke, the world trusts us because we maintain the only stable base currency. Creditors give US, the world’s largest economy ( our GDP tops the sum of those of China , India and Russia) more leeway, while Greece has lost its credit . Our creditors such as China and Japan must protect US, their chief marketplace, else their own economies will collapse. Meanwhile, the US must remain constant and show signs of working towards recovery, real positives . We must counter the types of anarchism that the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street people put forth, e. g. the Oakland general strike. We have better resources than those of destroying the US political system. As to cures. the SS, Med, defense and retirement mandates have to budge (more later), new products (e.g. energy storage) , and progressive taxation has to ensue. We should not panic, US can handle it (much more positive details to come.)
Wally Dobelis thanks Infobase Learning, the Debt Clock, internet sources and the people. Annual amounts come from varied resources, are rounded, and dates range from current to approximately 2009.
# posted by Wally Dobelis @ 12:59 AM 
